Articles by Steve Selengut
Class warfare politics is America's shame. The majority of Americans want the opportunity to succeed at something, to become rich and famous, even. We don't want free; we want affordable. We want to be in control of our own destinies. We want jobs, world-class education, and healthcare that doesn't have to look over its shoulder for ambulance chasers.
These investors are taking pretty much for granted the fact that their investment portfolios had more than merely survived the most severe correction in financial market history. They had recouped all of their market value, and maintained their cash flow to boot. The market averages remain 40% below their 2007 highs.
Both parties are mired in a type of class warfare that stifles all forms of productive debate. Tax cuts don't just benefit the rich. In fact, they provide the opportunity for everyone to attain greater wealth. Demand directs resources far better than punitive taxation. Money in consumer hands will fuel social and environment friendly change.
The fewer IGV stocks at bargain prices, the stronger the market, and the more profit taking WCM methodology investors should be experiencing. The most important thing most investors fail to do during rallies is to prepare for their "supplantation" by the next correction.
The current methodology is simple: it takes money out of our pockets (and our employers) puts it though governmental blenders, and spits out a meager benefit at retirement. Why not let the private sector provide pension benefits to all employees under the direction of a trimmed down Social Security bureaucracy?
Today, employers are reluctant to create jobs because the mandated non-productive "overhead" associated with each worker adds significantly to the cost of running the business--- worker's compensation, unemployment insurance, OSHA compliance, liability insurance, social security contributions, minimum wage/union pay scales, etc.
Whether you go the discount route through Schwab, Ameritrade, Fidelity, etc., or enjoy a higher level of service through an independent like LMK Wealth Management, you should never be surprised by the market values reflected on your monthly account statement. You should know what to expect.
Golfers will spend thousands on instruction, gadgets, machines, clinics, magazines, lessons, drivers, and putters. Investors love the gimmicks, shortcuts, and expert recommendations, but they seem allergic to anything really educational. They must see it as a sign of weakness. Golfers should be better investors. Investors need to introduce themselves to some basic education.
If President Obama owned the New World Order Health Insurance Company, he would not be willing to insure an applicant with brain cancer nor would he be willing to pay an unlimited lifetime benefit to all insureds--- not without a premium that reflects the risks to his personal bank account.
Obviously, this scam artist (the now indicted Wayne C. Scott a/k/a Chris Harper) was able to paint a believable picture by trading on the good names, reputations, and achievements of well-known people in the financial industry. I would guess that I'm not the only one who has been unknowingly abused by such con artists.
The IGVSI tracks a portfolio of approximately 400 stocks--- and less than half of them are likely to be found in the S & P 500 average. This new market index was developed in late 2007 to provide a benchmark for the equity portion of investment portfolios managed without open-end mutual funds, index funds, or any of the other popular speculations and hedges that are included in most professionally managed portfolios.
Before Wall Street conned investors into thinking of calendar quarters as "short-term" and single years as "long-term", market cycles were used to test investment strategies. Performance analysis was a test of management style and overall methodology, not a calendar year horse race with one of the popular averages. Bor-ing, yes--- but meaningful.
The Dark Side of investing beckons like a Siren's song, luring the majority of professional advisors away from the safety and simplicity of The QDI. Institutional propaganda, projections, predictions, and hype have the same affect on unsuspecting boatloads of speculators who most often become shipwrecked on the derivative rocks.
The Working Capital Model is a boring, conservative methodology for lowering the slope rating of the most diabolical wealth accumulation courses. Market hazards are avoided with reasonable expectations, and retirement approach shots that grow the annual income chip by chip, throughout the wealth accumulation period.
Favorite foursome conversations provide clues to the particular fundamental that just failed you, as your duck-hooked tee shot comes to rest at the base of the dead pine tree, and possibly, just beyond the white stake. "Have you weakened your grip?" comments Larry. "Nah, he was lined up that way; went right where he aimed it," Curley offers.
For an endless variety of reasons "tin cup" amateur investors bring on their own demise by failing to minimize risks using well known basic techniques that are thoroughly documented and supported by sand traps full of statistical evidence. They hit driver with every selection--- it's the only club in their bag.
The Working Capital Model looks at investment performance differently, less emotionally, and without much concern for short-term market value movements. Security market values are used for buy/sell decision-making. Working capital figures are used for asset allocation and diversification calculations. Working capital growth numbers are used to evaluate goal directed management decisions over shorter periods of time.
In fact, the market value line is expected always to track south of working capital. If market value breaks through, it means there are unrealized capital gains in the portfolio--- you'll want to avoid that scenario. This line is increased by dividends, interest, deposits, and realized capital gains and decreased by withdrawals and realized capital losses.
The reality of corrections is one of the few certainties of the financial markets, a reality that separates the men from the boys, if you will. If you fixate on your portfolio Market Value during a correction, you will just give yourself a headache, or worse.
And the real crime is this: investors as naive as the wet-diapered E-Trade spokesbaby can push a button and buy operational hedge funds more bizarre and sophisticated than any ever imagined buy the rich and famous. If an ETF harbors a hedge fund, but doesn't call it a hedge fund, is it really not a hedge fund?
The arrogance of the financial institutions, the mad scientists they employ to manipulate the rules and rule makers, and the Emperor's New Clothes (trust me they're safe) marketing tactics they employ really do need to be regulated--- by the government, sure; by corporate boards of directors, absolutely. In a Working Capital Model world, there would be no financial crisis.
KGIS brings small groups together on-line to learn how to overcome their fear of the markets and to rebuild their personal or self-directed retirement programs--- more safely. KGIS sells education, filling the gap between making money and protecting retirement nest eggs.
Appreciating Basic Risk Minimization Techniques. a) Understanding the purpose and use of Asset Allocation; b) Developing appropriate security selection criteria; c) Establish diversification and income rules; d) Adopting downward flexible profit taking guidelines.
The purpose of IBOR is to protect financial markets and to create self-sufficient investors who produce economic growth instead of government deficits. IBOR standards create transparent financial markets, regulate speculation, and protect retirement portfolios. Here's a Summary---get involved.
For homeowners: Cut the interest rate on all mortgage loans by 50 basis points and extend the payment schedule by three to five years. Convert all variable rate loans to fixed, at prevailing rates, and extend the payment schedule by six to ten years. No fees, points or charges tolerated.
How can I get you to stop fixating on monthly market values and to focus on the purpose of the securities within the portfolio? Most of us are trained to deal with seasons, fashion trends, biological changes, waning sports dynasties, sunspots, etc. Instinctively, we expect, and prepare for change effectively--- but not when it comes to investing, where planning and preparation is only talked about.
All investors need to become intimate with both the content of their portfolios and the workings of the various cycles that impact on security market values. They need to expect, even anticipate cyclical changes in the market values of their securities by taking reasonable profits in either classification willingly, gleefully, and without hindsight.
"As I approach retirement in a few years, I'm very encouraged by the cash flow my portfolio can generate. If I can generate nearly 8% cash flow in the worst bear market in 70 years, and with minimal capital gains, I'm feeling pretty good about the future."
Get rid of SFAS 157, which works something like this: While my bank owns my mortgage, it's worth full value. As part of a Ginny Mae--- still full value. But once it crosses over into the ether of CDOs and other multi-level Frankensteinesque monstrosities, my paid in advance mortgage becomes indistinguishable.
Unfortunately, investors are a lot like teenagers. They know everything; expect instant gratification; take unnecessary risks; fall in love easily; ignore voices of experience; prefer the easy approach. Lessons of the past just can't apply to what's going on now. Duh, dude!
Crash! The 2007 thru 2008 financial crisis halved 401(k), IRA, and Mutual Fund values in a matter of months. For many, retirement dates had to be pushed back; for others, new jobs had to be found. The tragic flaw? No income allocation in the investment program. Market value builds egos; income pays the bills.
Most people enter the investment process tip first. They hear something, grab an idea from a popular blog, accept a Cramerism or some motley foolishness, and think that they are making investment decisions. Rarely, will the right-now, instant-gratification, Internet-generation speculator think in terms that go beyond tomorrow's breaking news.
Every new American-made car buyer would receive a debit card along with his ownership papers. The card could be used for anything other than the car purchase itself. Card amounts would vary from $6,000 for "smart" cars, through $3,000 for fuel-efficient sub-compacts, $1,000 for other borderline greenies.
It's smart cash because it is created by the operation of the portfolio and ready for reinvestment. If it remains uninvested while new investment opportunities exist, it loses IQ points rapidly. If you've ever turned an unrealized gain into a realized loss, if you've ever sold mutual fund shares to deal with monthly expenses, if you've ever been unable to take advantage of low prices for lack of income, this is an approach you need to consider.
The SSRIA is a personal retirement program, funded by a much smaller, yet flexible, payroll deduction, and it is designed to be the foundation of a retiree's total retirement package... a benefit floor. It is a new and improved version of the ancient Deferred Fixed Annuity Contract... a boring but guaranteed retirement benefit vehicle.
Always keep in mind that (a) Wall Street has no respect for your intelligence and (b) the media "talking heads" are entertainers, not investors. Institutions must paint a picture of brilliance in their annual glossies. This year, a panic-stricken Main Street is helping them with their annual "sell low" hypocrisy.
Dr. Ghilarducci has presented a socialist solution to a problem that could easily be dealt with using rudimentary controls that would limit the amount of risk allowed inside these tax deferred savings devices. She also ignores the fact that most self-directed money lies in voluntary, privately sponsored, employee benefit programs--- emphasis on voluntary and private.
Investors have a right to be emotional, irrational, fickle, stubborn, confused, fearful, inexperienced, hindsightful, and greedy. Nothing the most thoughtful and caring professional can say or do will prevent the errors that many of us look back on with a frown and a headshake.
Corporate executive compensation needs to be brought down to a significantly lower "competitive level", and more of the corporate profit needs to be "spread around" to owners and employees, applied to debt reduction, and placed in reserves for contingencies. It is unlikely that there would be a shortage of qualified CEO applicants at a mere four or five million per year in salary.
Buffet, Bogle, Gross, Schwab, and Deep Pockets offer sound advice--- don't run and hide, it's time to hit the Wall Street Mall and go shopping! They've seen the indicators; they've been there before. So have many of you. Clearly, it's time for action.
The "hierarchy-of-risk" tool compares the risk vs. reward characteristics of a laundry list of investment securities from lowest-risk, investment grade, through highest-risk, speculation. A risk level "tier" system has been created. If it looks and feels like a bond, it better not be a currency futures speculation.
We the securities investors of the United States, in order to form more transparent financial markets, establish effective regulations, defend against destructive speculation and manipulation, promote financial well-being, preserve working capital, and protect retirement income...
A cocktail of credit market laxatives is working its way into a constipated world economy. Relief is on the way. Today's prices may well be looked at as the lowest of the next ten years! Here's a list of things to think about or to do while Investment Grade value Stock prices are at ten-year lows:
Brokerage firm monthly statements are designed to promote either fear or greed, depending on the current market environment. Nowhere on your statement can you find numbers that report your net investment, your total working capital, or your true asset allocation. Current and projected income numbers are given little attention
Today's Congress is ignoring its role as the primary creative force in today's problems. This transfusion is needed because: bad laws have obscured the values on financial institution balance sheets, and have created a clot in the credit arteries that keep the economy alive.
More than 95% of Americans are making their mortgage payments right on schedule, yet there is no market for the financial products that contain these mortgages. Consequently, balance sheets reflect trillions of dollars less than the maturity value of the securities held by the financial institutions.
Both presidential candidates want to crucify SEC Chairman Cox for failing to control our creative financial institutions. But rumor has it that Congress specifically excluded the devilish derivatives from SEC purview. Let's fire the right bunch of "poips" for a change!
Big publishers want to sell already big names; discovering new ones is not in their wheelhouse. Are they responsible for the problems in the financial markets? Of course not, but they do have a perverse, if indirect, impact--- they contribute to the brainwashing.
Employer provided pension plans, Social Security, and (always much too expensive) fixed annuity contracts, are retirement income providers. They are monthly income machines that you have paid dearly for but which may not be adequate to cover your retirement expenses--- most of us will need more income than our guaranteed benefits will provide.
Still, the 401(k) plan deserves to be every bit as popular as it has become. It, and the vast array of complicated IRAs, could help save Social Security, improve the economy, and create jobs--- all those good things that neither of the presidential candidates have a chance of achieving. Just two simple strokes of an Oval Office ballpoint get it done:
Don't let such uniformed thinking sabotage your retirement program; don't let the selfish advice of a product sharpshooter send you chasing rabbits when IRE (interest rate expectations) or other temporary market conditions shrink the market value of your income portfolio. Feed your head; feed---your---head.
Losing money on an investment may not be the result of a mistake, and not all mistakes result in monetary losses. Your own misconceptions about how securities react to varying economic, political, and hysterical circumstances are your most vicious enemy. Step away from calendar year, market value thinking. Avoid these ten common errors to improve your performance:
Admittedly, even if your asset allocation has been fine tuned for years, lower portfolio market values in this area make stock market valuation shrinkage feel even worse. But the value of stable cash flow becomes painfully clear for investors who misguidedly depend on capital gains for their spending money. Properly asset allocated portfolios contain enough base income generators to pay the bills.
As Investors, we represent the single biggest voter block in the country. We must respond in one voice to the endless political drivel with a resounding "Money Talks, BS Walks". We want decision makers who design laws that aid economic freedoms, not lawmakers who make decisions that restrict them.
As Investors, we represent the single biggest voter block in the country. We must respond in one voice to the endless political drivel with a resounding "Money Talks, BS Walks". We want decision makers who design laws that aid economic freedoms, not lawmakers who make decisions that restrict them.
How do we create a confidence building Stock Selection Universe? Simply operating on blind faith with one of the common definitions may be too simplistic, particularly since many of the numbers originate from the subject companies. Here are five filters you can use to come up with a listing of higher quality companies:
Politicians have never been shy about dictating proper behavior to individuals or hesitant in shamelessly picking the pockets of businesses to fund their projects. Self-employed business owners, for example, pay a minimum 35% Federal Income Tax, State and Local taxes of various kinds, and the usual Workers Compensation, Medicare, and double Social Security Taxes.
Why aren't the wizards of Wall Street assuaging our nerves by explaining the cyclical nature of the markets and pointing out that similar crises have always preceded the attainment of new all time highs? Right, because the unhappy investor is Wall Street's best friend. Why can't politicians address economic problems with capitalist-economic solutions?
What if, instead of donating 7.6% of your salary (15.3% if you are self employed) to support the war de jour: (a) you could choose to deposit from 3% to 5% of your salary in a guaranteed retirement program maturing anytime after age 60, (b) the lifetime benefit is totally income tax free, and (c) your employer uses his savings to either create jobs, raise non-executive salaries, reduce prices, or increase shareholder dividends.
Similarly, taxing gasoline production and delivery organizations is not going to bring down the price per barrel of crude oil. But "taxing" the cartel that fixes the prices instead of bribing them with protection from their enemies could work almost as well as tapping into our own abundant supply and adding some long-needed refining capacity.
Real Estate investing is not nearly as legally complicated, financially burdensome, or time consuming as you might think. You buy these securities for the income, but always recognize that you have the bonus capability of selling your shares when they rise to an acceptable profit level... so when it comes to Real Estate, think: no attorneys, no debt, and no maintenance equal no problem.
Investment portfolio mixology doesn't take place in the smiley faced environment that brought us the Cosmo and the Kamikaze, but putting an investment cocktail together without the risk of addictive speculations, or bad after tastes, is a valuable talent worth finding or developing for yourself.
Options are bets about the future price movement of exchange-traded securities--- it's just that simple. The prospect of unusually high returns always signals unusually high risk. Caveat emptor, in spades. Here are some things to consider before you think about attending that free seminar--- not to mention the basic reality that equities are not at all the proper investment vehicle for an income-generating portfolio.
Typically, 401(k) participants buy the higher priced, last-year-best-performing, and hot sector offerings while they sell or avoid the various products they feel have "under performed" the market. Nowhere else in their lives do they adopt such a perverse strategy. And nowhere else in their thinking would they blindly accept the premise that any one number represents what is, or should be, going on in their personal investment portfolios.
Wall Street spins reality in whatever manner it can to make most investors unhappy, thus increasing new product sales. Your confusion, fear, greed, impatience, and need for a quick panacea fuels their profit engines, not yours. Learn how to deal unemotionally with Wall Street events and shun the herd mentality.
Under the new system, there would be no penalties for early retirement, but tax free annuity payments would begin at age sixty-five whether or not the person continued to work. Participants could voluntarily establish retirement accounts for non-working spouses and children, and could elect to deduct an additional 1% of salary for each account. A new Federal Administration for Social Security (ASS) will select, qualify, and monitor provider companies and their investment portfolios to assure that only high quality, income-generating securities are used to fund benefits.
Unfortunately, the stock market never has been able to generate guaranteed levels of income, and sometimes fails to move higher just because we think it should. Serious problems occur when mutual funds are packaged with annuity contracts and the critical differences between them are either overlooked or undisclosed, perhaps innocently, perhaps not.
The Working Capital Model (WCM) approach to portfolio performance evaluation eliminates the tears and fears because it is based on more than the current market value illusion of wealth--- a number that won't sit still long enough to ever be meaningful. Market value, within the WCM, is used only to determine what to buy and/or when to take profits
"The Brainwashing of the American Investor" is direct, hard-hitting and brutally honest--- The title implies a strong message, and the book does not let the reader down. Once Steve Selengut debunks the notion that Wall Street is on your side, he tells you how to take control of your own investments. His strategy is easy to understand and takes the guesswork and emotion out of investing.(
The market has never and will never be a one way ticket to ride (smile Beatles fans). None of the important aspects of the voyage (advances, declines, speed, beginning, or end) are predictable, by anyone, no matter how overpaid or well credentialed. Sooner or later, some gutsy financial gurus will declare the stock market oversold and full of bargains.
90% of all Americans are investors and, as such, there are issues that we need to hear about from the man who would be king. None of our could-be leaders are addressing the issues that would allow us to achieve our financial goals. This is my short list for the presidential candidates. Where they stand on these issues will certainly influence our economic future. Which of these is most important?
Many investors are beginning to think that income investing is every bit as risky as equity investing, but nothing has really changed in the relationship between these two basic building blocks of corporate finance. What has changed in recent years is the nature of the derivative products created by the wizards of Wall Street to deliver both forms of securities to investors.
Steve Selengut
http://www.sancoservices.com
http://www.investmentmanagementbooks.com/
Author: "The Brainwashing of the American Investor: The Book that Wall Street Does Not Want YOU to Read" and "A Millionaire's Secret Investment Strategy".
It matters not what lines, numbers, indices, or gurus you worship, you just can't know where the stock market is going or when it will change direction. Too much investor time and analytical effort is wasted trying to predict course corrections... even more is squandered comparing portfolio Market Values with a handful of unrelated indices and averages.
Trading does not have to avoid the income securities that are so important to the long-term success of an investment portfolio. No more worries about liquidity and hidden markups. No more cash flow positioning or laddering of maturities. And best of all, no more calls of your highest yielding paper when interest rates fall.
Asset Allocation is an investment planning tool, not an investment strategy... few investment professionals understand the distinction. Investment strategies are used to implement the asset allocation formula that investment planning produces. Many investors incorrectly believe that investment planning and financial planning are one and the same.
The Investor's Eye view of politics is a simplistic, practical, dot-connecting approach to sorting things out so that win/win change can be considered. Real World politics is not concerned with such things, and that is one of the most serious problems facing investors today. As outlined in Investme...
Steve Selengut
http://www.sancoservices.com
http://www.valuestockindex.com/
Professional Portfolio Management since 1979
Author of: "The Brainwashing of the American Investor: The Book that Wall Street Does Not Want YOU to Read", and "A Millionaire's Secret Investment Strategy"
Perhaps this (totally ignored by the media) snippet will pique your attention: on December 18, 2007, nearly 50% of all Investment Grade Value Stocks were down an average of over 30% from their 52-week highs... the Dow and the S & P 500 had fallen just 7%!
One would think that there would be a p...
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The Investor's Eye view of politics is a simplistic, practical, "dot-connecting" approach to sorting things out so that positive (win/win) change can be considered. Real World politics is not concerned with such things, and that is one of the most serious problems facing investors today. As outlined...
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