US options in Afghanistan
Ahmed Hany
March 28, 2009
Both the American President and his vice said that NATO forces are not winning the war in Afghanistan, but added that they are not losing the war. In military terms this means that NATO forces are facing an attrition war while losing the initiative. The mountainous geography of Afghanistan makes forces that are exposed to this type of war in a very critical condition.
Beefing troops by the US and its Western allies is not the magical solution there. This step should be associated with other military plans that regain the initiative which is crucial for victory. The mountainous geography both gives the guerilla fighters many caves for hiding and needs heavy use of Special Forces by the US and NATO. The highly tech equipments and air forces little affect the military situation there.
European allies want a date for withdrawal. The French president said before that NATO forces did not go to Afghanistan to stay forever. What complicates the situation more is the problems about supply. While it is not safe now to depend on supply routes in the Pakistani territories, Russia and its ex-Soviet Union allies agreed to allow the US and NATO to use their territories for non-military supplies. For any ground forces is too difficult if not impossible to use cargo planes instead of heavy trucks to supply ammunition, spare parts and weapons.
The American administration is obliged to talk to Iranians who had helped them to occupy the Central Asian country to topple Taliban. This is not a new decision by Obama´s administration. Let us not forget that Bush administration thought seriously about the idea and Obama chose the same Defense Secretary. When Foreign Secretary Hilary Clinton said that Iran will be invited to attend the international conference about Afghanistan, she chose the proper area to start dialogue with Persian State.
While Vice President Joe Bidden said that it worthy to think about talking to moderate Taliban, the Defense Secretary declared that it is important to ensure that Taliban will not return to govern Afghanistan. The Vice President announcement irritated the Iranians whose Revolutionary Leader and Superior Guide Kheimini declared that US behavior did not change and his President Mahmood Ahmadi Negad refused the Turkish mediation between his country and the US.
It is clear that Washington circles send contradicting messages about to whom the American would talk first and whether the US would accept Taliban in the future or not. In other words, the Americans show both Iran and Taliban the carrot and the stick.
The idea of talking to Taliban is to repeat the Iraqi experiment that distanced the Sunni tribes from Al-Qaeda fighters. However there is a big difference because Taliban and Al-Qaeda were allies before the American invasion of Afghanistan while in the Iraqi case fighters of Al-Qaeda came to Iraq to open another front for the Americans. The American Vice President did not tell about the parameters according to which Taliban fighters would be classified into moderates and non-moderates. Air raids on Pakistani mountains to chase Afghani Taliban just unified the factions of both countries with tribes in this area. Neither Russia nor Iran likes to see Taliban return.
The idea of talking to Iran about Afghanistan is to put pressure on the Persian State by threatening that the US may accept the return of Taliban. The second aim is to make the Iranian accept safeguarding NATO supplies to Afghanistan if they wanted the US to achieve victory and to dismantle Taliban not to return to power. The spread of chaos in Afghanistan threats all its neighbors, Iran, Russia, ex-Soviet Islamic Republics and Pakistan. In other words if the US and NATO withdrew defeated, Afghanistan neighbors will be exposed to revenge and the attrition war especially Iran that helped in occupation of the country.
Then both the US, Iran and Russia should pay a price for their dialogue to safeguard their common security interests in Central Asia. The US will be forced to talk about all differences with Russia before developing military plans. For Iran, the nuclear file and Gulf security will be discussed. Iran may find it worthy to either stop enrichment of uranium or allow supervision of its nuclear sites after reducing operations for normalizing relations with the US and the West and having some influence in Afghanistan. The US may ask the Persian State to stop ruining political conditions in the Gulf and the Levant for not opening an Eastern front by Taliban.
The global American strategy depends on three sub-strategies. The first is control of Central Asia resources and geopolitically. The second is having reconciliation with the Islamic World. The third is to have a partnership with Russia. Historically Afghanistan proved to be the hard rock that empires failed to break. This means that soft power and only soft power will solve the Afghani problems. This needs the use of forces to safeguard large development projects to render them attractive for people while gradually widening safe territories. Still the main problem that will face the US administration is how to make clergy in Iran and among Taliban to think strategically before ideologically. Until now the American strategic centers did not solve this problem.
The ideological thinking and neglecting strategy of the previous Bush´s administration made others think the same way. Obama inherited too many problems that need one solution which is abandoning double standard policies. His success in Central Asia passes through Jerusalem. Solving the Palestinian problems and the Israeli nuclear file will help in addressing the Iranian nuclear file and defuse Taliban hostility against the US. Al-Qaeda will have no cause to recruit youth for suicidal actions.
Beefing troops by the US and its Western allies is not the magical solution there. This step should be associated with other military plans that regain the initiative which is crucial for victory. The mountainous geography both gives the guerilla fighters many caves for hiding and needs heavy use of Special Forces by the US and NATO. The highly tech equipments and air forces little affect the military situation there.
European allies want a date for withdrawal. The French president said before that NATO forces did not go to Afghanistan to stay forever. What complicates the situation more is the problems about supply. While it is not safe now to depend on supply routes in the Pakistani territories, Russia and its ex-Soviet Union allies agreed to allow the US and NATO to use their territories for non-military supplies. For any ground forces is too difficult if not impossible to use cargo planes instead of heavy trucks to supply ammunition, spare parts and weapons.
The American administration is obliged to talk to Iranians who had helped them to occupy the Central Asian country to topple Taliban. This is not a new decision by Obama´s administration. Let us not forget that Bush administration thought seriously about the idea and Obama chose the same Defense Secretary. When Foreign Secretary Hilary Clinton said that Iran will be invited to attend the international conference about Afghanistan, she chose the proper area to start dialogue with Persian State.
While Vice President Joe Bidden said that it worthy to think about talking to moderate Taliban, the Defense Secretary declared that it is important to ensure that Taliban will not return to govern Afghanistan. The Vice President announcement irritated the Iranians whose Revolutionary Leader and Superior Guide Kheimini declared that US behavior did not change and his President Mahmood Ahmadi Negad refused the Turkish mediation between his country and the US.
It is clear that Washington circles send contradicting messages about to whom the American would talk first and whether the US would accept Taliban in the future or not. In other words, the Americans show both Iran and Taliban the carrot and the stick.
The idea of talking to Taliban is to repeat the Iraqi experiment that distanced the Sunni tribes from Al-Qaeda fighters. However there is a big difference because Taliban and Al-Qaeda were allies before the American invasion of Afghanistan while in the Iraqi case fighters of Al-Qaeda came to Iraq to open another front for the Americans. The American Vice President did not tell about the parameters according to which Taliban fighters would be classified into moderates and non-moderates. Air raids on Pakistani mountains to chase Afghani Taliban just unified the factions of both countries with tribes in this area. Neither Russia nor Iran likes to see Taliban return.
The idea of talking to Iran about Afghanistan is to put pressure on the Persian State by threatening that the US may accept the return of Taliban. The second aim is to make the Iranian accept safeguarding NATO supplies to Afghanistan if they wanted the US to achieve victory and to dismantle Taliban not to return to power. The spread of chaos in Afghanistan threats all its neighbors, Iran, Russia, ex-Soviet Islamic Republics and Pakistan. In other words if the US and NATO withdrew defeated, Afghanistan neighbors will be exposed to revenge and the attrition war especially Iran that helped in occupation of the country.
Then both the US, Iran and Russia should pay a price for their dialogue to safeguard their common security interests in Central Asia. The US will be forced to talk about all differences with Russia before developing military plans. For Iran, the nuclear file and Gulf security will be discussed. Iran may find it worthy to either stop enrichment of uranium or allow supervision of its nuclear sites after reducing operations for normalizing relations with the US and the West and having some influence in Afghanistan. The US may ask the Persian State to stop ruining political conditions in the Gulf and the Levant for not opening an Eastern front by Taliban.
The global American strategy depends on three sub-strategies. The first is control of Central Asia resources and geopolitically. The second is having reconciliation with the Islamic World. The third is to have a partnership with Russia. Historically Afghanistan proved to be the hard rock that empires failed to break. This means that soft power and only soft power will solve the Afghani problems. This needs the use of forces to safeguard large development projects to render them attractive for people while gradually widening safe territories. Still the main problem that will face the US administration is how to make clergy in Iran and among Taliban to think strategically before ideologically. Until now the American strategic centers did not solve this problem.
The ideological thinking and neglecting strategy of the previous Bush´s administration made others think the same way. Obama inherited too many problems that need one solution which is abandoning double standard policies. His success in Central Asia passes through Jerusalem. Solving the Palestinian problems and the Israeli nuclear file will help in addressing the Iranian nuclear file and defuse Taliban hostility against the US. Al-Qaeda will have no cause to recruit youth for suicidal actions.
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