Eruptive South Asia

Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Bangladesh, three of the nations in South Asia are presently experiencing a kind of unique situation, which may ultimately be termed as eruptive region. It is important to assess the entire scenario, which is existent in the South Asian countries, for the sake of understanding the gravity of possible crisis.

Sri Lankan cricketers were attacked by religious extremists in Pakistan only few days back, thus creating a kind of severe horror in the minds of sport-loving population in the entire world. Islamists intentionally might have targeted cricket, which is one of the most popular sports in many of the nations in the world, with a possibly ´desire´ of attaining global media attention. Terrorist arracks although are never new in a terror-stricken country like Pakistan, the latest episode of attack on the cricketers only would place this country into the forefront of most volatile places in the world.

Following the terror attack, Sri Lankan cricket team members have told their government that, they will agree to tour to Pakistan if a strict security measure is guaranteed in future. It is noteworthy here that, although the Sri Lankan cricketers are expressing fear at the latest terror attack on them, it is by now a reality that their country itself is continuing to be a terror stricken avenue for decades with the warring guerillas of LTTE as well as offensives of their armed forces.

In the very latest development, Sri Lankan troops killed 32 Tamil Tiger separatists in intense fighting in what the government says are the final battles of Asia's longest-running civil war.

The battles came as the U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights warned both sides may have committed war crimes and urged a suspension of fighting to let tens of thousands of civilians escape.

Sri Lanka's military has surrounded the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam [LTTE] in a 37 sq km [15 sq miles] of the island nation's northeastern coast and is fighting to deal a death blow to a civil war that has raged off and on since 1983.

"Fighting continued in Puthukudyiruppu. Troops killed 32 LTTE terrorists from yesterday's fighting and recovered 15 dead bodies," military Spokesman Brigadier Udaya Nanayakkara said.

Combat operations now are concentrated on the last town the separatist LTTE holds and commanders say nearly all of the Tamil Tigers' top guerrillas including leader Vellupillai Prabhakaran are in that area, with some personally commanding the battles.

Troops are inside the town and have just a few kilometers to go before they reach a lagoon on its eastern edge, across from which is a 12-km coastal strip set up as a no-fire zone. Tens of thousands of civilians are inside the area.

U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights Navi Pillay, an ethnic Tamil raised in South Africa, in a statement said the government had shelled designated no-fire zones and that the LTTE's treatment of people should be investigated for war crimes.

Sri Lankan government officials could not immediately be reached for comment, but the government has repeatedly rejected reports it has fired on civilians.

It says it has stopped returning fire on LTTE guns located in civilian areas and troops are taking more casualties as a result.

Sri Lankan government says 70,000 people are inside the no-fire zone, while the Red Cross says there are 150,000. The military says about 38,900 people have fled LTTE areas this year.

In Pakistan, Police clashed with stone-throwing protesters on March 15, 2009 as opposition politician Nawaz Sharif defied a house-arrest order and denounced what he called the government's creation of a "police state."

Pakistan's burgeoning political crisis has alarmed Western governments, who fear the power struggle will sideline efforts to rein in a growing Islamic insurgency. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton separately telephoned Sharif and President Asif Ali Zardari on in an effort to calm the situation, but street violence was escalating.

The outbreak of unrest in the eastern city of Lahore came on the eve of a planned massive protest by opposition activists in the capital, Islamabad. Government officials insisted the gathering would not be allowed to take place.

Roads leading into Islamabad were blockaded by police, and normally bustling markets were deserted. The main boulevard leading to Parliament and other government buildings was sealed off with shipping containers, and police carried out spot checks of the few motorists who ventured out.

If the capital was a ghost town, Lahore — Sharif's main base of suppport and the center of a nationwide lawyers' movement — boiled over with defiance. Stones and tear-gas canisters littered an intersection near the High Court, where supporters of Sharif and the lawyers squared off with police.

Black-suited lawyers, ties askew and shirts untucked, hurled rocks at police, who fired canisters of tear gas at the crowd. Women used their long shawls to cover their mouths and noses against the choking gas. "It seems we have a war zone of sorts," gasped Ali Mustafa, reporter for the Dawn television network, which carried hours of live coverage of the protests.

Riot police early Sunday [March 15] surrounded the home of Sharif, and aides said he had been served with a house-arrest order. But he emerged soon afterward to make a fiery statement and embark on a slow-moving convoy trip through Lahore. Thousands of supporters mobbed his route, with police offering little or no resistance.

"The entire country has been turned into a police state," Sharif, who served two terms as prime minister in the 1990s, told journalists outside his home. "The time has come to take to the streets!"

Pakistan returned to full civilian rule a year ago after nearly nine years under President Pervez Musharraf. But the victorious civilian opposition was quickly beset by infighting, which sharpened last month when the Supreme Court banned Sharif and his politician brother, Shahbaz, from elective office.

In a sign of deepening disarray within Zardari's government, a key aide, Information Minister Sherry Rehman, was in seclusion after reports that she had resigned to protest government moves to muzzle a widely watched TV channel.

Many of Bhutto's friends and backers have distanced themselves from the actions of the government, which in recent days has arrested hundreds of opposition activists and placed tight restrictions on political rallies.

Zardari took over leadership of Bhutto's Pakistan People's Party after she was assassinated in December 2007, and became president six months ago. It may be mentioned here that, Zardari is known to be one of the worst corrupts in Pakistan with a past track record of various forms of crime, including murder, abduction as well as limitless corruption.

It is naturally speculated that the latest confrontation between the ruling party and the opposition may ultimately push the fate of democracy in Pakistan inside cold storage. And in that case, military rule may continue in Pakistan at least for another decade, if not more.

Pakistanis are also becoming quickly frustrated with the ruling party in particular and the politicians in general and they are even expecting military intervention in order to salvage the nation from a possible massive economic disaster due to wrong-doings of the politicians and continuous feud amonsgt them.

And finally Bangladesh! As the day of release date of the investigation report on the February Massacre in Dhaka is getting near, speculations are getting at the optimum level of the possible reaction of the ruling party, if many of the influential figures from their own home are already named as abettors or conspirators or instigators behind the bloody incident. It may be mentioned here that, the very first political figure so far arrested in connection to February Massacre is none but a mid-level leader of the ruling Bangladesh Awami League. It is even learnt from various media reports that looted arms, ammunitions and explosives from Bangladesh Riffles headquarters in Dhaka did silently go into the possession of a number of notorious members of the ruling party as well as its youth and student fronts. And, naturally, it will remain as a greatest challenge to country´s law and order situation.

On the other hand, taking the advantage of unique situation in Bangladesh, Islamist millitancy group named Hizb Ut Tahrir are trying to become active with their anti India and anti-US as well as anti-West propaganda, thus labeling India as the main conspirators behind the February Massacre.

Hizb Ut Tahrir is although banned in a number of countries in the world, it is yet to be banned in Bangladesh, Pakistan and a number of Asian nations. This notorious group had hands behind Bali bombing in Indonesia as well as several more dangerous actions around the world. In recent past, Bangladesh has become a safe haven for Hizb Ut Tahrir operations.

Tension between the government and the armed forces as well as rise of Islamist millitancy has also put Bangladesh into a very complex situation.