Iran sends the wrong message
Ahmed Hany
March 10, 2009
Iran sends the wrong message.
Ahmed Hany.
ahmedhany55@hotmail.com
While preparing for its long waited dialogue with the US, Iran took steps that show its ability to destabilize the region. This policy may be fruitful only when accompanied by other contradicting steps to prove the opposite. Yet in Iran due to the internal reasons, the ruling elite may find it difficult to balance their hostile announcements.
The Revolutionary Guard fears that President Mahmood Ahmad Nagad might lose the next election because of the deteriorating economic situation. The monetary and economic crisis reduced Iran´s revenues from exporting oil to about one third. People ask about the unprecedented military expenditure while the standard of living is much less, than it should be in an oil rich country. Reformists who support former president Khatami play the economic and corruption card against the hard liners. In Iran, there are no political parties and presidential and parliamentary nominees should belong to the ideology of Welayat Al Faqih, the custody of the religious authority. Few weeks ago, the Revolutionary Guard closed the websites of the reformists, the only mean for them to reach people, as there are no private radio and TV stations. Many reformist writers were jailed for their trivial opposition.
The regime plays the card of external threat to give reasons for its atrocities and military expenditure while the real cause of this expenditure is employing both the army and the Revolutionary Guard to spread the regime´s ideology in neighboring countries and in particular in the Gulf States. It also uses the Persian chauvinism and claims of false historical rights to gain the support of Iranian people and to exert pressure on tiny Gulf States as Bahrain while occupying the Emirates´ islands.
The Lebanese Shiite Hezbo-Allah that also fears the results of the next summer parliamentary elections that will end the temporary Doha´s arrangements, started to send messages that it wants to keep its position of having one third of the governmental posts regardless of the results of the elections. One sees the Iranian threats to the Gulf in general and the Hezbo-Allah request as messages to the US. In other words, Iran puts the Gulf and Lebanon as cards on the table beside its influence in Syria while Iraq is far from being stable. There are no any signs of compromise came from Tehran until now. Iran depends on its relations with China and Russia to confront the US.
This strategy is based on some predictions. The first prediction is disengagement between the Zionist project and the Persian project will build trust between Israel and Iran so that new US Administration may find it cost effective to build Iranian-Israeli relation like the Turkish model. The second prediction is that Russia and China need Iran for their dialogue with the US and their support for the Persian State will continue before and after final arrangements of the Middle East and South Asia Region. The third prediction is that Iran could press on the Syrian regime to give concessions regarding parts of Golan Heights and water for creation of a Shiite State in South Lebanon. The fourth prediction is that Iran cold press on Hamas to recognize Israel. The fifth prediction is that Israel would welcome these arrangements for its gains in the north front. The sixth prediction is that the US needs Iran´s help in Afghanistan. The seventh prediction is that the Arabs are weak to resist the new arrangements.
Yet this strategy may backfire for many reasons. First, the reality of the Iranian project and the regime´s belief in the historical right are not only about border changes in the Middle East. Iranian regime believes that Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, West Afghanistan and West Pakistan are parts of its empire. Historical mistrust between Russia and the Persian Empire is much more than the mistrust between Iran and any of its neighbors. Russia uses Iran as a card not as a partner in its dialogue with the US. It assured Israel about keeping the military balance and declared that it will postpone its S-300 air defence missiles until discussions about the American antimissile missiles shield in East Europe takes place. Nuclear Pakistan and Turkey see Iran as a threat for many causes.
The main cause of the Iranian-American dialogue is the Iranian nuclear file. Not only Israel and US could not accept nuclear Iran but also Arabs, Turkey and Russia. Such arrangement means the end of the American-Arabs alliance that is more important for the US that has seven military bases in the Gulf region. The US cannot afford losing the Arabs for frank Russian-Arab alliance because losing the Middle East means making losing the global leadership a matter of time.
Appointing Dennis Ross as an American representative for Gulf and West Asia is not good news for Iran or other Asian countries. It is known that he sympathizes with Israel. In fact, this means that the ideas of the Neo-Cons about dividing Iran, Afghanistan, and Pakistan to create a country for Bushman race are still present. President Obama said frankly that Iran should stop enrichment and he keeps all options open. He portrayed his image as a politician of soft power but he cannot be a loser president. Next election is more important for Obama than Iran.
The Syrian regime cannot sign any final agreement that cut parts of Golan. Its alliance with Egypt and Saudi Arabia may be troubled now but nobody has ever said that doors were tightly shut. Creation of a Shiite State in South Lebanon means another civil war that will extend to North Palestine. Whatsoever Iran paid for Hamas the geopolitical and strategic facts dictate special relationship and alliance between Palestinians, and both Egypt and Jordan.
What Iran has created by its threats against Bahrain and by its trials to destabilize Lebanon is an Arab orientation of its hostility against them and the visits of Arab leaders to Bahrain means that they insist on the Gulf security as a part of the collective Arab security.
The Persian race is about 60% of Iranians. The Arabs of Arabstan is 20% of the population and their land contain 80% of the oil wealth. These two facts make Iran seek better relations with Arabs. However, the regime in Tehran puts ideology in a higher rank before its national interests.
Ahmed Hany.
ahmedhany55@hotmail.com
While preparing for its long waited dialogue with the US, Iran took steps that show its ability to destabilize the region. This policy may be fruitful only when accompanied by other contradicting steps to prove the opposite. Yet in Iran due to the internal reasons, the ruling elite may find it difficult to balance their hostile announcements.
The Revolutionary Guard fears that President Mahmood Ahmad Nagad might lose the next election because of the deteriorating economic situation. The monetary and economic crisis reduced Iran´s revenues from exporting oil to about one third. People ask about the unprecedented military expenditure while the standard of living is much less, than it should be in an oil rich country. Reformists who support former president Khatami play the economic and corruption card against the hard liners. In Iran, there are no political parties and presidential and parliamentary nominees should belong to the ideology of Welayat Al Faqih, the custody of the religious authority. Few weeks ago, the Revolutionary Guard closed the websites of the reformists, the only mean for them to reach people, as there are no private radio and TV stations. Many reformist writers were jailed for their trivial opposition.
The regime plays the card of external threat to give reasons for its atrocities and military expenditure while the real cause of this expenditure is employing both the army and the Revolutionary Guard to spread the regime´s ideology in neighboring countries and in particular in the Gulf States. It also uses the Persian chauvinism and claims of false historical rights to gain the support of Iranian people and to exert pressure on tiny Gulf States as Bahrain while occupying the Emirates´ islands.
The Lebanese Shiite Hezbo-Allah that also fears the results of the next summer parliamentary elections that will end the temporary Doha´s arrangements, started to send messages that it wants to keep its position of having one third of the governmental posts regardless of the results of the elections. One sees the Iranian threats to the Gulf in general and the Hezbo-Allah request as messages to the US. In other words, Iran puts the Gulf and Lebanon as cards on the table beside its influence in Syria while Iraq is far from being stable. There are no any signs of compromise came from Tehran until now. Iran depends on its relations with China and Russia to confront the US.
This strategy is based on some predictions. The first prediction is disengagement between the Zionist project and the Persian project will build trust between Israel and Iran so that new US Administration may find it cost effective to build Iranian-Israeli relation like the Turkish model. The second prediction is that Russia and China need Iran for their dialogue with the US and their support for the Persian State will continue before and after final arrangements of the Middle East and South Asia Region. The third prediction is that Iran could press on the Syrian regime to give concessions regarding parts of Golan Heights and water for creation of a Shiite State in South Lebanon. The fourth prediction is that Iran cold press on Hamas to recognize Israel. The fifth prediction is that Israel would welcome these arrangements for its gains in the north front. The sixth prediction is that the US needs Iran´s help in Afghanistan. The seventh prediction is that the Arabs are weak to resist the new arrangements.
Yet this strategy may backfire for many reasons. First, the reality of the Iranian project and the regime´s belief in the historical right are not only about border changes in the Middle East. Iranian regime believes that Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, West Afghanistan and West Pakistan are parts of its empire. Historical mistrust between Russia and the Persian Empire is much more than the mistrust between Iran and any of its neighbors. Russia uses Iran as a card not as a partner in its dialogue with the US. It assured Israel about keeping the military balance and declared that it will postpone its S-300 air defence missiles until discussions about the American antimissile missiles shield in East Europe takes place. Nuclear Pakistan and Turkey see Iran as a threat for many causes.
The main cause of the Iranian-American dialogue is the Iranian nuclear file. Not only Israel and US could not accept nuclear Iran but also Arabs, Turkey and Russia. Such arrangement means the end of the American-Arabs alliance that is more important for the US that has seven military bases in the Gulf region. The US cannot afford losing the Arabs for frank Russian-Arab alliance because losing the Middle East means making losing the global leadership a matter of time.
Appointing Dennis Ross as an American representative for Gulf and West Asia is not good news for Iran or other Asian countries. It is known that he sympathizes with Israel. In fact, this means that the ideas of the Neo-Cons about dividing Iran, Afghanistan, and Pakistan to create a country for Bushman race are still present. President Obama said frankly that Iran should stop enrichment and he keeps all options open. He portrayed his image as a politician of soft power but he cannot be a loser president. Next election is more important for Obama than Iran.
The Syrian regime cannot sign any final agreement that cut parts of Golan. Its alliance with Egypt and Saudi Arabia may be troubled now but nobody has ever said that doors were tightly shut. Creation of a Shiite State in South Lebanon means another civil war that will extend to North Palestine. Whatsoever Iran paid for Hamas the geopolitical and strategic facts dictate special relationship and alliance between Palestinians, and both Egypt and Jordan.
What Iran has created by its threats against Bahrain and by its trials to destabilize Lebanon is an Arab orientation of its hostility against them and the visits of Arab leaders to Bahrain means that they insist on the Gulf security as a part of the collective Arab security.
The Persian race is about 60% of Iranians. The Arabs of Arabstan is 20% of the population and their land contain 80% of the oil wealth. These two facts make Iran seek better relations with Arabs. However, the regime in Tehran puts ideology in a higher rank before its national interests.
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