Turkish Role in perspective.
Ahmed Hany
February 24, 2009
During Gaza War, the Turkish tried to play a role in the Palestinian cause. They tried to be neutral between the Arab camps. They sent a low profile delegate to Doha and their Premier attended the Sharm meeting with other European leaders. Officially, they supported the Egyptian-French initiative and they called for Palestinian factions to reunite. They took a harsh verbal stand against Israelis.
Historically, Turkey kept good relations with most of the Arabs. It had some frictions with republican states during the fifties and sixties of the last century. That reflected the global differences between the US and the ex-Soviet Union more than difference in ideologies. However, the relations between Turkey and, Syria and Iraq were always tense because of distribution of rivers´ water. Besides, the Kurdish leader Abd Allah Oglan was living in Syria. Something would cause a war if President Mubarak did not mediate and defused the tension. Now both the moderate Arabs and the Turks see each other as allies.
The geopolitical facts that formulate the Turkish strategy are being a neighbor to Russia the superpower, forces Turkey to have a special relation with the West. The Kurdish independence movements oblige Turkey to balance its policy in the region. Being a neighbor to the Shiite Iran after the long hostility and several wars between the Sunni Ottoman Empire and the Shiite Safaweya State make Turkey seek alliance with Sunni Arabs.
The historical and geopolitical backgrounds state a special condition and limitation to the Turkish movement. It is a big Islamic country with secular regime. While its European policy did not produce the desired result of joining the EU, the ruling party tries to play regional cards to support its negotiations with Brussels. Besides, it wants to consolidate its ground for the municipal elections in March. Latest opinion polls showed that the Happiness Party might threat the ruling party.
In Turkey, the army safeguards the secularity as stated in the constitution. This gives the army the legal reason to move against the government if it would take actions that threats the internal balance. Therefore, sometimes the ruling Islamic party decides policies that makes it appear as if it is more Turkish than seculars, as its tough stand against the Kurdish rebels.
Besides being a part of the Islamic World and the trials to join the EU, Turkey is a member in NATO. It has a strategic relationship with Israel. Turkey is one of the most important clients of the Israeli weapon industry. Israel helps Turkey to upgrade its air force. The Israeli pilots train in the Turkish skies. There is a strategic security agreement between Turkey and Israel. During the American invasion of Iraq, Turkey allowed the Americans to use their air force base in the operation.
Economically, the Turkish government tried to open markets in Africa and agreed with the Egyptian government to have a free zone in Egypt to get benefits from the COMESSA. It tries to infiltrate markets of central Asia against the Chinese and Indian goods. It agreed with the Arab League about a partnership.
One should put the previous facts in mind before explaining the recent Turkish movement in the region. Turkey sponsored the Israeli-Syrian negotiations. Its Premier gave Hamas the lip service during Gaza War while officially supporting the Egyptian initiative.
Strategically, both Israel and Turkey have an interest to contain Syria and to end the Iranian influence in the Levant. Turkey will not forget that its Kurdish rebels had bases one day in Syria. The Iranian influence in Syria poses a threat for the Sunni Turkey and opens a southern front besides north Iraq. Syria may become stiffer about water negotiations when it is in a strategic alliance with Iran. The Allawite minority that rules Syria, have relations with the Turkish Allawite that the Turkish see them untrustworthy. In fact, this creates unfavorable conditions for the Syrian negotiator. That is why it would be much favorable for Syrians to negotiate in an Arab country that has relations with Israel as Egypt or Jordan.
During Gaza War, the Turkish know that the rule in the region is talk about Palestine then talk about anything. When the Turkish Premier withdrew from Davos after his raw with Shimon Perez, his aids denied that this incident would affect the Israeli-Turkish relations. Regardless of anything, Turkey knows that Israel has good relations with some Kurdish factions and it can move them to cause another wave of violence that affects the Turkish security.
Sharing in Doha gathering angered the moderate Arabs and specially the Saudis that do not tolerate any Iranian influence in their regional space. The Turkish President went to the Saudi capital and declared his support for the Arab initiative and for Mecca accords that call for union of Palestinian factions and recognize the Palestinian Authority as the legal ruler in West Bank and Gaza.
In conclusion, the Turkish Premier cannot take actions that contradict with his countries strategy that is stated by the army. His action in Davos serves his municipal election more than anything else. If the West decided to bomb Iran, the American air force base in Turkey will be a part of the operation. Turkey has other calculations when dealing with the Palestinian file regarding its strategic accords with Israel and its problems with the Kurds. When it comes to economy the Turkish prefer Saudi Arabia and Egypt. The Gaza War showed the Turkish that if they want to have a role in the Palestinian cause then it would be through the Egyptian role. Any actions that may deepen the rift between Palestinian factions will harm their relations with moderate Arabs and this is the last thing Turkey wants.
Historically, Turkey kept good relations with most of the Arabs. It had some frictions with republican states during the fifties and sixties of the last century. That reflected the global differences between the US and the ex-Soviet Union more than difference in ideologies. However, the relations between Turkey and, Syria and Iraq were always tense because of distribution of rivers´ water. Besides, the Kurdish leader Abd Allah Oglan was living in Syria. Something would cause a war if President Mubarak did not mediate and defused the tension. Now both the moderate Arabs and the Turks see each other as allies.
The geopolitical facts that formulate the Turkish strategy are being a neighbor to Russia the superpower, forces Turkey to have a special relation with the West. The Kurdish independence movements oblige Turkey to balance its policy in the region. Being a neighbor to the Shiite Iran after the long hostility and several wars between the Sunni Ottoman Empire and the Shiite Safaweya State make Turkey seek alliance with Sunni Arabs.
The historical and geopolitical backgrounds state a special condition and limitation to the Turkish movement. It is a big Islamic country with secular regime. While its European policy did not produce the desired result of joining the EU, the ruling party tries to play regional cards to support its negotiations with Brussels. Besides, it wants to consolidate its ground for the municipal elections in March. Latest opinion polls showed that the Happiness Party might threat the ruling party.
In Turkey, the army safeguards the secularity as stated in the constitution. This gives the army the legal reason to move against the government if it would take actions that threats the internal balance. Therefore, sometimes the ruling Islamic party decides policies that makes it appear as if it is more Turkish than seculars, as its tough stand against the Kurdish rebels.
Besides being a part of the Islamic World and the trials to join the EU, Turkey is a member in NATO. It has a strategic relationship with Israel. Turkey is one of the most important clients of the Israeli weapon industry. Israel helps Turkey to upgrade its air force. The Israeli pilots train in the Turkish skies. There is a strategic security agreement between Turkey and Israel. During the American invasion of Iraq, Turkey allowed the Americans to use their air force base in the operation.
Economically, the Turkish government tried to open markets in Africa and agreed with the Egyptian government to have a free zone in Egypt to get benefits from the COMESSA. It tries to infiltrate markets of central Asia against the Chinese and Indian goods. It agreed with the Arab League about a partnership.
One should put the previous facts in mind before explaining the recent Turkish movement in the region. Turkey sponsored the Israeli-Syrian negotiations. Its Premier gave Hamas the lip service during Gaza War while officially supporting the Egyptian initiative.
Strategically, both Israel and Turkey have an interest to contain Syria and to end the Iranian influence in the Levant. Turkey will not forget that its Kurdish rebels had bases one day in Syria. The Iranian influence in Syria poses a threat for the Sunni Turkey and opens a southern front besides north Iraq. Syria may become stiffer about water negotiations when it is in a strategic alliance with Iran. The Allawite minority that rules Syria, have relations with the Turkish Allawite that the Turkish see them untrustworthy. In fact, this creates unfavorable conditions for the Syrian negotiator. That is why it would be much favorable for Syrians to negotiate in an Arab country that has relations with Israel as Egypt or Jordan.
During Gaza War, the Turkish know that the rule in the region is talk about Palestine then talk about anything. When the Turkish Premier withdrew from Davos after his raw with Shimon Perez, his aids denied that this incident would affect the Israeli-Turkish relations. Regardless of anything, Turkey knows that Israel has good relations with some Kurdish factions and it can move them to cause another wave of violence that affects the Turkish security.
Sharing in Doha gathering angered the moderate Arabs and specially the Saudis that do not tolerate any Iranian influence in their regional space. The Turkish President went to the Saudi capital and declared his support for the Arab initiative and for Mecca accords that call for union of Palestinian factions and recognize the Palestinian Authority as the legal ruler in West Bank and Gaza.
In conclusion, the Turkish Premier cannot take actions that contradict with his countries strategy that is stated by the army. His action in Davos serves his municipal election more than anything else. If the West decided to bomb Iran, the American air force base in Turkey will be a part of the operation. Turkey has other calculations when dealing with the Palestinian file regarding its strategic accords with Israel and its problems with the Kurds. When it comes to economy the Turkish prefer Saudi Arabia and Egypt. The Gaza War showed the Turkish that if they want to have a role in the Palestinian cause then it would be through the Egyptian role. Any actions that may deepen the rift between Palestinian factions will harm their relations with moderate Arabs and this is the last thing Turkey wants.
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