ORAKZAI AGENCY DESCENT INTO CHAOS: AN ANALYSIS

Orakzai are the most peaceful among all the tribal people in Pakistan, scattered from Kohat to Kalaya, Midan (Tirah) Hangu and Parachinar. Unfortunately these days Orakzai Agency is riddled with violence and never ending bombing. This article will look at the root causes of violence that has gripped Orakzai Agency (and FATA) for the past few years. The British created the institution of Political Administration that is vested with wide power and funds to secure the loyalties of influential elements in the FATA. Under this system, local chiefs were designated as intermediaries between the members of individual tribes and the authorities, who assisted in the implementation of the government policies through small Frontier Constabulary (FC) recruited from various tribes.

This system worked for few decades, however over the years, this system has been on downward spiral not only in Orakzai Agency, but throughout the FATA for various reasons. For example, the usual method of pacifying the tribe was bribing the tribal chief, who would offer categorical support of tribesmen to the Government of Pakistan. This system may have worked in the past; but tribal people resented this system for many decades. Somehow there is a misguided belief in Islamabad that if this unjust system worked in the past; it must work perfectly forever, which is no more than a wishful thinking. The main reason for failure of this system is the lack of understanding of tribal needs. The sole recipients of this system are tribal elites, while majority in Orakzai Agency have been deprived from economic opportunities for decades. Any system that deprives majority and brings benefits to a selected elite will have backlash sooner or later.

The bitterness against Pakistan Government was brewing for sometime; however US invasion in Afghanistan (especially drone attacks in FATA) and military incursions in FATA led to the explosion of anger among the younger tribesmen, who revolted against the old order (tribal chief and Political Administration). Pakistan army heavy pounding pushed the militants to retreat in Orakzai Agency initially; however element of revenge was simmering; while Pakistan Army focused on Bajur, it allowed the militants to regain the lost ground. In subsequent months, militants became more structured in the Orakzai Agency. They took various steps to establish themselves, such as elimination of Govt supporters through suicide bombing, kidnapping and destruction of property.

The purpose of revolt in Orakzai Agency (and FATA) is to overthrow the Pakistan Government and install a Taliban version of government modelled on Islamic Shariah to provide justice, collect taxes and control populace by force. The Taliban movement has a clear objective- to depose Government of Pakistan at all cost. It has a hierarchal structure that includes chief, sub leaders, local commanders, media spokesman, and an efficient network of spies including foot soldiers, bomb makers, trainers, fighters, suicide squads and executioners. Taliban attack comes as full scale attack from bunkers and trenches and supplies of weapon and food, unlike Iraq where insurgent would attack without planning. Such tactics show that Talibans are not mindless or totally reckless, but they have full understanding of warfare. It is for this reason that Talibans fighting lasts for days and weeks as has been happening in Swat and Bajur. Unlike Iraq which is paved with plain roads and deserts; Orakzai Agency has tough terrain with high mountains, treacherous valleys, rocks and boulders at every corner providing excellent cover for the militants but tough targets for Security Forces.

During the recent crisis, the Pro Government Maliks and Chiefs have been murdered systematically. From outside the killing may look random, but there is a clear pattern- with an aim to eliminate the moderate Orakzai labelled as traitors or Pro-Americans. Some of these killing include suicide attack on 10th Oct, 2008 Jirga (Elders meetings) that resulted in the death of hundreds of tribal elders, almost annihilating the pro government leadership in the Orakzai Agency. The rationale of the elders meeting (Jirga) was to raise tribal militia (lashkar) to fight back the militants. The Pakistan Government´s strategy to counter militancy through lashkar is not only flawed, but it is also haphazard. In the past, laskars were formed to evict petty gangsters or robbers from tribal areas. It is vain to fight back the experienced militants, who are not only well trained, but have superior vehicles, modern equipment including an efficient network of spies. The Talibans have one clear message; any one supporting US (and Pakistan) will lose life and they are able to inflict the damage at will. Most local leaders in the Orakzai Agency are dead; while remaining few (including member of parliaments) are leaving for safer places.

For years the only strategy used by Islamabad has been bombing and pounding, raising the number of casualties and loss of innocent lives in the Agency that heightened the sense of alienation among tribesmen. The success of counterterrorism strategy should not be based on high number of killings or number of villages destroyed, because brutal use of force cannot defeat an ideology. Any indiscriminate force will lead to new grievances and a never ending revenge cycle that will allow the militants to justify their actions and get more recruits. The ideal strategy would be combination of hard and soft policies with intensive economic and political development for the people of Orakzai Agency (and FATA) to counter the Talibans and their supporters.