War Clouds Hovering over South Asia

LAHORE: The Mumbai terrorist attacks pushed the peace process between India and Pakistan to the back seat. Both neighbors asked their people not to visit the other side of the border. Even the cricket series was cancelled by the Indian Cricket Board. Confidence building measures were chopped down to their lowest level.

Young media played a major role in creating 'war hype' which was picked up by immature leaders without realizing the real damage - human or material - of a nuclear war. Humanity was at the mercy of so-called representatives of the people who had been stocking nuclear assets at the expense of development.

A peaceful solution to defuse the tension seemed to be the single hope for the unprivileged of South Asia. An escalation of animosity may take both countries to the brink of collapse, as these nations are not as responsible as the United States and Soviet Union were at the height of the Cold War. The nuclear factor makes the situation more dreadful.

An American intelligence report said a nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan could kill up to 12 million people and injure 7 million. The U.S. assessment said a limited nuclear exchange would have cataclysmic results, overwhelming hospitals across Asia and the Middle East and requiring vast foreign assistance, particularly from America, which would be forced to go in and clean up the radioactive mess.

Millions more people would die of starvation, disease and radiation. Most of the bombs would explode on the ground, spreading radioactive debris over a large area and destroying agriculture for years.

There are both opponents and proponents of having nuclear assets in Pakistan and India. First, those who think nuclear assets are vital for the security of their country. They believe nuclear bombs are the saviors against any foreign aggression.

In Pakistan, they are proud to have nuclear bombs and of becoming the only Muslim nuclear nation in the world. They see these assets as a tool of a balance of power in the subcontinent. They back up the maxim of Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, who promised: "If India builds the bomb, we will eat grass or leaves, even go hungry, but we will get one of our own." Their hero is Dr. AQ Khan, the founder of Pakistan's nuclear bomb.

On the other hand, critics view expenditure on nukes as wasteful. They often argue that expenditure on defense is incurred at the expense of development. They see nuclear arsenals as killers of development projects. They say, 'nukes are not saving us' but 'we are their saviors,' and 'we are busy in keeping guard on nuclear assets from any possible theft by militants and foreign powers.'

They believe poverty, inflation, load-shedding, clothing, shelter, safe drinking water, hunger, illiteracy and unemployment are the real issues which should be addressed by the leaders in utmost urgency.

According to UNICEF, 26,500 to 30,000 children die each day due to poverty. And they "die quietly in some of the poorest villages on earth, far removed from the scrutiny and the conscience of the world. Being meek and weak in life makes these dying multitudes even more invisible in death."

Around 27 or 28 percent of all children in developing countries are estimated to be underweight or stunted. The two regions that account for the bulk of the deficit are South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa.

According to the new World Bank's estimates on poverty based on 2005 data, India has 456 million people, 41.6 percent of its population, living below the new international poverty line of $1.25 per day. The World Bank further estimates that 33 percent of the global poor now reside in India.

Similarly, according to estimates by international NGOs, 74 percent of Pakistan's population, or 122 million people, live on less than $2 a day, and some 15 percent, or 30 million people live under $1 a day.

Wealth distribution in Pakistan is highly uneven, with 10 percent of the population earning 27.6 percent of income.

According to the United Nations Human Development Report, Pakistan's human development indicators, especially those for women, fall significantly below those of countries with comparable levels of per capita income. At least 40 percent of the population has no access to safe drinking water, and 50 percent has no access to sanitation. Pakistan also has a higher infant mortality rate (88 per 1,000) than the South Asian average (83 per 1,000).

Despite facing a lot of problems by the poor, both nations stick to increasing their defense budget year after year.

As for the fiscal year 2008-09, India's defense allocation has increased by 10 percent over the previous year's allocation of Rupee (Rs.) 96,000 crores, and by little over 14 percent compared to last year's revised allocation of Rs. 92,500 crores. In the last five years, the defense budget has increased by nearly 37 percent from Rs. 77,000 crores in 2004-05, which represents over 8 percent growth per annum. At the same time, Pakistan's defense spending for the year 2008-2009 is set at Rs 302.5 billion ($4.5bn), an increase of 7 percent. But the development budget of both the countries remains low with compared to other developing countries.

Both nations should avoid any escalation. The clouds of nuclear war must be averted. Tension must be defused by assuming the composite dialogue process. Both nations must address the problems of the poor by increasing their development budgets.

The writer is freelance columnist. He can be reached at rahil.yasin@gmail.com