NEPAL TO BE FAILURE BY POWER FAILURE

In Nepal, power has a distinct meaning whether it is the political power or muscle power or the electric power. Now-a-days, these three have gained special momentum for discussion and great concern all over the nation. The three powers are equally persuasive in Nepal.

Currently, Electric power appears to be, more or less more powerful than other two elements of power in Nepal. The nation is maneuvering toward disorder due to lack of electric power. It is well-known that Nepal is the second high potential country after Brazil in hydropower. But, the two third of the day of the load-shedding has darkened the nation and the future seems more frightening until uncertain period of time.

Before few years, the Nepalese hydropower sector felt a great shock when the government of the United Marxist Leninist dismissed the implementation of Arun 402 mw hydro project, which had been finalized to be financed by the World Bank. This is the one of the prime cause of the power problem in Nepal.

Nepal has potentiality of 83000 megawatt (mw) of hydroelectricity, of which 43000 mw are supposed to be viable from technical and economical point of view. The first hydropower project in Nepal was installed in 1911 AD by the name of Pharping hydropower project with a capacity of 500 kilowatt of electricity, which was one of the largest hydropower projects in the south Asia during that time.

At present around forty percent of the population have access to electricity in Nepal and most of them are urban population. For sixty percent of the population every day is load-shedding. The development of hydropower sector in Nepal is linked with other multiple benefits such as flood control, facilitating for navigation and irrigation and opening possibility of the new cycle of economic growth in the poverty stricken areas of the flood plains of the Ganges Basin.

In Nepal, the demand for internal consumption of electricity is more than 800 mw. Currently, it has capacity to generate only 689 mw. During the dry season, electricity generating capacity have halved or more depending on the level of water in the reservoir and the deficit electricity has to be managed by import from India or maintained by load-shedding. The power shortage during dry season has been estimated 49% and 36% based on electricity and power capacity respectively.

The theoretical potentiality for the large and the medium scale hydropower development in different river system in Nepal is estimated at 83000 mw, distributed by basin and regions are as follows:

Basin Region Potential mw Estimated

Sapta Koshi

Sapta Gandaki

Karnali

Mahakali& others Eastern

Central &Western

Far-western 22000

21000

36000

4000

Total 83000

There are many multipurpose and the export-oriented projects in pipelines in Nepal since decades waiting for implementation in government planning, which are as follows:

(1) Arun III (402 mw)

(2) Mahakali- Pancheswore package program (5000 mw)

(3) Karnali Chisapani (10300 mw)

(4) West Seti (750 mw) – PPA initiated for export of power to India

(5) Upper Karnali (300 mw) – NEA and NHPL to take up jointly

(6) Budhi Gandaki (600 mw) – Government of India interested to conduct feasibility study.

Nepal will complete its 100th years of entering into hydropower sector in 2010. Nepal´s one century´s effort to produce under a thousand mw of electricity and less than 1% of its hydropower potentiality and continued load-shedding or buying electricity from India is not an encouraging signal from national development point of view. It is a subject of great shame to the nation. Not only electricity, but almost all other service delivery from the public sector is weak and fragile in Nepal.

The current requirement of Nepal is not the export of electricity; the need is fulfillment of internal consumption. Nepal should not be much dependable with other countries especially with the India to construct medium-sized hydro power projects to fulfill the internal electricity demand. The concept of small hydropower project for small locality electrification was once popular in Nepal, now it has been overshadowed by the much publicity of large and medium-sized projects. The current pace of hydroelectricity development in Nepal signifies that export of Nepalese electricity may remain in power planning still few decades to come.

The cause root problem of the power sector in Nepal is also whether the external investors are not interested to enter into the Nepalese hydropower sector due to instability and red- tapism or the internal powerful vested interest group (water mafias), who are monopolizing of expensive government investment and high commissions bargaining in the power sector are hindering entrance of external investment. The high monopoly of the

Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA) in power sector should be minimized and private and the multinationals should be encouraged to compete with the NEA.

The real problem is also the lack of political trust inside the nation and between nations and the reluctance to deal with energy as a shared opportunity in south Asia. As an example, due to better cooperation, in Bhutan export of hydroelectricity to India, now generates nearly half of its all government revenue and critical improvement in health and education.

Failure to implement power poject in time is also the prime cause of power shortage in Nepal. In the Tenth Plan, out of target to generate additional 314 mw of electricity, only 40 mw of electricity was produced. And the electricity demand is increasing by 10% every year in Nepal. The present government of Nepal is trying to lessen the effect of load-shedding. Use of CFC lamps, load-shedding even in VIPs area like office and residence of the President , Vice President and other dignitaries seems to be drop in the pond to solve the present power crisis in Nepal. The decision to install 200 mw thermal plants and again not to install the plant indicates very uncertain character of the government.

To solve the long-term power problem the government of Nepal has constituted a ten year hydropower development planning taskforce 2008 to generate 10000 mw of electricity in 10 years. This task force would suggest about the role of the government, private sector, private public partnership and foreign investment in power sector. Electricity to all by 10 years is the slogan of the Government of Nepal.

Nepal´s GDP below US$ 8 billion is considered to be one of the lowest economies of the world. Consumption of less than 700 mw of electricity also signifies the primordial nature of the economy. The nation is not capable to generate even such lower power demand and in the lack of power, two digits growth is unbelievable. Lack of power would negatively affect the national production. According to the government estimation, in year 2004/05, the loss to the economy due to load-shedding was estimated around NRs 32 billion and this year the estimation is around NRs 45 billion. The private sector´s estimation is much higher. After 5 year, the effect on economy might be chronic and serious

Due to load-shedding, life of the Nepalese people is moving toward reverse direction. It would be more pitiful, disastrous and slow-poison in years to come if conditions are not improved. But the improvement appears to be unendurable. It would not be exaggerating to forecast that Nepal would move toward a failing state and power sector might be one of the causes of Nepal´s failure?