Negotiating Peace untill Wars.
Ahmed Hany
November 07, 2008
The Israeli President Shimon Perez thought that he did Arabs a favor when he declared that his state likes to negotiate the Arab Peace Initiative. President Mubarak responded that this initiative is not for negotiations. In fact, Israel wants to negotiate anything but peace. The Arab Initiative is nothing new. It is just a promise that Arabs would have normal relations with Israel if the latter withdrew from the occupied lands along with Jerusalem and allowed the refugees to return. All UNSC resolutions told that. However, Israel that ignored the initiative suddenly decided to negotiate it.
On the main track, which is the Palestinian-Israeli one the Israeli officials told many times that, the final accords were nearly concluded; however, some obstacles were still need to be solved. In fact, these some obstacles were the core of the problem. They are about Jerusalem and refugees.
On the Lebanese track, Israel proposed good neighborhood agreement to avoid withdrawal from Sheba farms. On the Syrian track, after several rounds of indirect negotiations that both parties were waiting for Washington blessing for their efforts Israel decided to stop it just before the moment of truth not to fulfill its promised intentions of withdrawal from Golan Heights.
Then it is clear that Israel plays time and negotiates for negotiations. Revising the history of negotiations in the Middle East one finds that the Israeli game did not change much. Only Sadat could corner the Hebrew State and forced it to withdraw from Sinai. Always Israel negotiated until exhausting the negotiators and the idea of negotiations itself then a military operation would start to begin another round after months or years. Although after 1967 Israel did not win a single war in the region and it could not defeat the Arabs´ will to regain their lands, it played time to postpone any solution.
Now that Tzipi Levini failed to formulate a government, she called for an election that most probably will be next February. The Israeli president has no real authority to decide and the government until February cannot decide as well. There is a probability that the next premier will be Benjamin Netanyahu, the ultraconservative who has a good experience in ruining peace and negotiations. Israel calculated that the top priority of the new US Administration would be Afghanistan, Iraq and the financial crisis. Usually it takes a year for the new American President to know what happens in the Middle East.
In fact, time is against Israel, if Arabs could use it in their favor. It is clear that peace would not be achieved in this region at anytime if Israel were not forced to comply with its prerequisites. Then the question that Arabs should answer is how they could force Israel to peace to save the region. Let us remember that Sadat told people before going to negotiations that if he failed he would say that frankly and he would declare that Israel refused peace. He also warned Begin that he could send five millions to martyr themselves and they would regain Sinai.
The Israeli propaganda campaign stresses on some messages. First, it tells the world that Israel is the only democratic country in the region. Second, it tells that the Hebrew States wants peace but it does not find partners. The third message is to the Israelis which is the army could save you against any enemy at any time.
The Arabs should send messages to the world that Israel is a racist country and there is no difference between it and the old South African regime and that the world should support the Arab-Israelis to have their rights. Not only the Arab-Israelis but also the Sephardim or Eastern Jews have fewer rights than the Western Ashkenazi. The AL should take positive steps about sending Israeli officers who violate human rights to the international court along with the officials who give orders.
The Palestinian factions should stop their senseless differences and they should unite at any cost. If they do not respond positively to the Egyptian initiative, it is doubtful that any other body would try again with them. Palestinians will lose faith in all factions and leaders. In fact, Arabs should give these factions this last chance and if they did not catch it, the Arabs may decide to boycott leaders who responded negatively to the initiative and call for direct elections supervised by the Arab League in both occupied lands and in countries where Palestinian refugees live. These refugees could vote in their embassies or in the headquarters of the AL.
When Hamas won the elections marginally the US, the EU and Israel boycotted the Palestinian government. They punished the Palestinians for their free choice at a time when the US administration was calling day and night for fair elections. If Likud won the next elections in Israel, the Arabs should not continue negotiating the negotiation with a Premier who refuses peace with Palestinians and whose racist wife once said that she felt disgusted when she shook hands with Arafat. The Arabs may declare that their initiative is exhausted and they recognize the Palestinian Authority a state with Jerusalem its capital and ask the international community to recognize it. At least most of the Islamic World would recognize it and some new global players might follow. It will be a complicating-problems strategy for the new US Administration and the new Israeli government. This new state would seek independence and removal of apartheid. It may call for a one-state solution.
The Arab propaganda for the Israelis may be based on the fact that their army lost all its wars since 1967. On the other hand, the Arabs may ask the Israeli government and people what if a third uprising because of your stubborn time play, extended to the Arab-Israelis in Israeli towns after what happened in Acre would look like? This question may have repercussions in the Israeli voters and strategists´ minds alike.
On the main track, which is the Palestinian-Israeli one the Israeli officials told many times that, the final accords were nearly concluded; however, some obstacles were still need to be solved. In fact, these some obstacles were the core of the problem. They are about Jerusalem and refugees.
On the Lebanese track, Israel proposed good neighborhood agreement to avoid withdrawal from Sheba farms. On the Syrian track, after several rounds of indirect negotiations that both parties were waiting for Washington blessing for their efforts Israel decided to stop it just before the moment of truth not to fulfill its promised intentions of withdrawal from Golan Heights.
Then it is clear that Israel plays time and negotiates for negotiations. Revising the history of negotiations in the Middle East one finds that the Israeli game did not change much. Only Sadat could corner the Hebrew State and forced it to withdraw from Sinai. Always Israel negotiated until exhausting the negotiators and the idea of negotiations itself then a military operation would start to begin another round after months or years. Although after 1967 Israel did not win a single war in the region and it could not defeat the Arabs´ will to regain their lands, it played time to postpone any solution.
Now that Tzipi Levini failed to formulate a government, she called for an election that most probably will be next February. The Israeli president has no real authority to decide and the government until February cannot decide as well. There is a probability that the next premier will be Benjamin Netanyahu, the ultraconservative who has a good experience in ruining peace and negotiations. Israel calculated that the top priority of the new US Administration would be Afghanistan, Iraq and the financial crisis. Usually it takes a year for the new American President to know what happens in the Middle East.
In fact, time is against Israel, if Arabs could use it in their favor. It is clear that peace would not be achieved in this region at anytime if Israel were not forced to comply with its prerequisites. Then the question that Arabs should answer is how they could force Israel to peace to save the region. Let us remember that Sadat told people before going to negotiations that if he failed he would say that frankly and he would declare that Israel refused peace. He also warned Begin that he could send five millions to martyr themselves and they would regain Sinai.
The Israeli propaganda campaign stresses on some messages. First, it tells the world that Israel is the only democratic country in the region. Second, it tells that the Hebrew States wants peace but it does not find partners. The third message is to the Israelis which is the army could save you against any enemy at any time.
The Arabs should send messages to the world that Israel is a racist country and there is no difference between it and the old South African regime and that the world should support the Arab-Israelis to have their rights. Not only the Arab-Israelis but also the Sephardim or Eastern Jews have fewer rights than the Western Ashkenazi. The AL should take positive steps about sending Israeli officers who violate human rights to the international court along with the officials who give orders.
The Palestinian factions should stop their senseless differences and they should unite at any cost. If they do not respond positively to the Egyptian initiative, it is doubtful that any other body would try again with them. Palestinians will lose faith in all factions and leaders. In fact, Arabs should give these factions this last chance and if they did not catch it, the Arabs may decide to boycott leaders who responded negatively to the initiative and call for direct elections supervised by the Arab League in both occupied lands and in countries where Palestinian refugees live. These refugees could vote in their embassies or in the headquarters of the AL.
When Hamas won the elections marginally the US, the EU and Israel boycotted the Palestinian government. They punished the Palestinians for their free choice at a time when the US administration was calling day and night for fair elections. If Likud won the next elections in Israel, the Arabs should not continue negotiating the negotiation with a Premier who refuses peace with Palestinians and whose racist wife once said that she felt disgusted when she shook hands with Arafat. The Arabs may declare that their initiative is exhausted and they recognize the Palestinian Authority a state with Jerusalem its capital and ask the international community to recognize it. At least most of the Islamic World would recognize it and some new global players might follow. It will be a complicating-problems strategy for the new US Administration and the new Israeli government. This new state would seek independence and removal of apartheid. It may call for a one-state solution.
The Arab propaganda for the Israelis may be based on the fact that their army lost all its wars since 1967. On the other hand, the Arabs may ask the Israeli government and people what if a third uprising because of your stubborn time play, extended to the Arab-Israelis in Israeli towns after what happened in Acre would look like? This question may have repercussions in the Israeli voters and strategists´ minds alike.
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