Weak Gas Prices A Threat to Biofuels? Myanmar Gets Japanese Jatropha Help,
Stafford Williamson
October 28, 2008
Young, hot and sexy news in the biodiesel field comes from Ames, Iowa. No, it's not another Obama rally. It is a professor who has just recently successfully used a porous nanostructure to deliver chemicals through cell membrane into a cell. Now, he has proposed (and has received a grant of more than US$ 800,000 in support) to attempt to use these same structures to "harvest" specific chemicals from the interior of algae cells without destroying the cells. According to the article in Biodiesel Magazine, Dr. Victor Lin hopes over the next three years to extract lipids, triglycerides, and other chemicals from the little green cells. Since prior experiments are reported to have been penetrating cell walls (not mere membranes), this looks very promising (but then you can't trust everything you read, even here).
Representatives of GreenGlobe and DaoChi Energy are scheduled to meet with two leading edge German engineering firms this week in Germany. The meetings are characterized as simply "get-to-know" sessions, but all parties are looking East to potential projects in Asia as common ground for future development.
According to a report originating with the Xinhau (Chinese) News Agency, the country of Myanmar plans to plant jatropha on millions of hectares of available land. "Cultivation of an acre (0.405 hectare) of land with 1,200 physic nut plants can produce up to 100 gallons (454.6 liters) of biodiesel, Myanmar experts said." The project is supposed to be a joint venture with Japanese interests. Myanmar currently imports more than 2/3rds of its domestic consumption of diesel fuels, so the cultivation of over 3 million of the potentially 6 million hectares of land suitable for jatropha cultivation in the country will be a significant shift.
Although the first year's plantings are expected to be just under 650,000 hectares and it usually takes between 3 and 7 years to reach fully mature yields from the shrubs, even that initial planting will result in about 65,000,000 gallons of biodiesel per year, about equal to 2/3rd of current domestic production for diesel. The total, 3 million hectares should roughly replace current domestic use entirely. Of course with the rate of growth of Asian countries these days, that will not necessarily be enough to completely fill their needs in another 7 years from now, but presumably, in the meantime, the Japanese partners will be pleased to take any excess home with them.
One is always reluctant to cheer oppressive regimes in their accomplishments, but one must also bear in mind that international commercial interdependence creates internal pressures to conform to internationally accepted standards in other areas as well.
In response to a question asked on a semi-private forum where I am a member, I made a reply.
The question was: "Low gas prices; isn't it a serious competition for bio-based fuels?"
My reply follows:
"The spike in oil prices which resulted in a sudden spike in American gasoline prices has prompted some people to enter the alternative fuels business recently, some of them with un-realistic expectations about future "floor" prices of oil and gas. However, anyone who has been at this for a while is well aware that US$140/bbl oil (world price) was unlikely to hold, and that the longer term prices would be far more modest. My company has not changed the projected prices that we claimed we could expect on any project for about a year now.
Low gasoline prices do set a competitive threshold for vehicle fuels, but other factors are in play, including the environmentalist pressures on airlines to have "greener" fuels. Their "exhaust" and it's apparent, or at least visible contribution, to climate and climate change makes them especially subject to scrutiny, and public pressure to transition to more ecologically friendly. Public pressure can result in governmental and regulatory pressure as well.
Goals of upgrading to 20% by 2020 in terms of biofuels content in overall transportation fuels mix seem modest to those of us working toward biofuels prominence (if not dominance), but it may not be that slow.
Economic trends in the industrialized world are that inflation generally runs at between 5 and 10% (depending on which countries/areas one considers) so that even if gasoline prices continue to fall in the US, that overall, one can expect something like a 50 to 100% rise over the next 12 to 15 years.
Currently (as of yesterday, Oct, 27, 2008, oil prices of US$ 63.xx/USgal.) prices are twice as high as some prominent venture capitalist investors in the biofuels area have projected for long term floors, and yet they remain optimistic that they can be competitive at even those prices, especially with cellulosic alcohols (not JUST ethanol).
Consumers too have begun to put their wallets as well as their emotions into the issue, and that will be a significant factor, especially in the next few years. We need a world in which green energy sources are the norm, not just for cars, but for all our energy needs. We are working on it, but it will take regulatory, NGO and public support to get there."
-----------------+++++-------------
So much emphasis has been placed on alternative energy development that little attention has been received by the most promising energy conserving strategy that is already in play in the marketplace. Telecommuting.
Telecommuting is not just about telephones any more, of course. Nor is it about slow data rates of conventional consumer modems over telephone lines to carry minimal data to allow the human ear to recognize the human voice. We are talking about high speed internet connections capable of delivering voice, data and video to the home office. It is at one exciting to see Cisco advertising their video conferencing equipment as a cost saving item to replace long distance travel that makes not only good economic sense for most meetings, but also a "good-for-the-environment" sense as well. But my reluctance is to see that the entrenched interests of high priced hardware are such that low-cost dedicated (or at least allocatable) bandwidth for broadband video communications is not becoming more competitive.
Ah, well, enough wishes for one week.
Sadly, between being absent for a trip to NYC this past week, and then collapsing under influenza symptoms upon my return, I have not had much in the way of entertainment entering my life to report about this week. I must say, however that there are two new series that, while they haven't made it into our TiVo schedule yet, look very promising based on the few episodes we have managed to catch, one a little stronger than the other. The Mentalist is the stronger of the two although, Eleventh Hour has some good plotting and a kind of "dark" (but not too dark) air about it that supports the shows elements of suspense.
My good news, upbeat ending for this week is that my influenza is not likely to be fatal, and that the media contacts I made while in New York during the past week may prove invaluable in spreading the "good word" about biofuels in general and our "Green Shift" logo program in particular.
Oh, I didn't tell you about the "Green Shift" program did I? Well, I've got something to tell you next week then, don't I?
Sincerely,
Love and warm wishes,
Stafford "Doc" Williamson
http://winfotech.com
p.s. Several of our websites were "hacked" by nasty folks during the past couple of weeks so if you find any of them "missing-in-action" recently, please be patient, my hosting company is helping to move them to a more secure server this week.
Representatives of GreenGlobe and DaoChi Energy are scheduled to meet with two leading edge German engineering firms this week in Germany. The meetings are characterized as simply "get-to-know" sessions, but all parties are looking East to potential projects in Asia as common ground for future development.
According to a report originating with the Xinhau (Chinese) News Agency, the country of Myanmar plans to plant jatropha on millions of hectares of available land. "Cultivation of an acre (0.405 hectare) of land with 1,200 physic nut plants can produce up to 100 gallons (454.6 liters) of biodiesel, Myanmar experts said." The project is supposed to be a joint venture with Japanese interests. Myanmar currently imports more than 2/3rds of its domestic consumption of diesel fuels, so the cultivation of over 3 million of the potentially 6 million hectares of land suitable for jatropha cultivation in the country will be a significant shift.
Although the first year's plantings are expected to be just under 650,000 hectares and it usually takes between 3 and 7 years to reach fully mature yields from the shrubs, even that initial planting will result in about 65,000,000 gallons of biodiesel per year, about equal to 2/3rd of current domestic production for diesel. The total, 3 million hectares should roughly replace current domestic use entirely. Of course with the rate of growth of Asian countries these days, that will not necessarily be enough to completely fill their needs in another 7 years from now, but presumably, in the meantime, the Japanese partners will be pleased to take any excess home with them.
One is always reluctant to cheer oppressive regimes in their accomplishments, but one must also bear in mind that international commercial interdependence creates internal pressures to conform to internationally accepted standards in other areas as well.
In response to a question asked on a semi-private forum where I am a member, I made a reply.
The question was: "Low gas prices; isn't it a serious competition for bio-based fuels?"
My reply follows:
"The spike in oil prices which resulted in a sudden spike in American gasoline prices has prompted some people to enter the alternative fuels business recently, some of them with un-realistic expectations about future "floor" prices of oil and gas. However, anyone who has been at this for a while is well aware that US$140/bbl oil (world price) was unlikely to hold, and that the longer term prices would be far more modest. My company has not changed the projected prices that we claimed we could expect on any project for about a year now.
Low gasoline prices do set a competitive threshold for vehicle fuels, but other factors are in play, including the environmentalist pressures on airlines to have "greener" fuels. Their "exhaust" and it's apparent, or at least visible contribution, to climate and climate change makes them especially subject to scrutiny, and public pressure to transition to more ecologically friendly. Public pressure can result in governmental and regulatory pressure as well.
Goals of upgrading to 20% by 2020 in terms of biofuels content in overall transportation fuels mix seem modest to those of us working toward biofuels prominence (if not dominance), but it may not be that slow.
Economic trends in the industrialized world are that inflation generally runs at between 5 and 10% (depending on which countries/areas one considers) so that even if gasoline prices continue to fall in the US, that overall, one can expect something like a 50 to 100% rise over the next 12 to 15 years.
Currently (as of yesterday, Oct, 27, 2008, oil prices of US$ 63.xx/USgal.) prices are twice as high as some prominent venture capitalist investors in the biofuels area have projected for long term floors, and yet they remain optimistic that they can be competitive at even those prices, especially with cellulosic alcohols (not JUST ethanol).
Consumers too have begun to put their wallets as well as their emotions into the issue, and that will be a significant factor, especially in the next few years. We need a world in which green energy sources are the norm, not just for cars, but for all our energy needs. We are working on it, but it will take regulatory, NGO and public support to get there."
-----------------+++++-------------
So much emphasis has been placed on alternative energy development that little attention has been received by the most promising energy conserving strategy that is already in play in the marketplace. Telecommuting.
Telecommuting is not just about telephones any more, of course. Nor is it about slow data rates of conventional consumer modems over telephone lines to carry minimal data to allow the human ear to recognize the human voice. We are talking about high speed internet connections capable of delivering voice, data and video to the home office. It is at one exciting to see Cisco advertising their video conferencing equipment as a cost saving item to replace long distance travel that makes not only good economic sense for most meetings, but also a "good-for-the-environment" sense as well. But my reluctance is to see that the entrenched interests of high priced hardware are such that low-cost dedicated (or at least allocatable) bandwidth for broadband video communications is not becoming more competitive.
Ah, well, enough wishes for one week.
Sadly, between being absent for a trip to NYC this past week, and then collapsing under influenza symptoms upon my return, I have not had much in the way of entertainment entering my life to report about this week. I must say, however that there are two new series that, while they haven't made it into our TiVo schedule yet, look very promising based on the few episodes we have managed to catch, one a little stronger than the other. The Mentalist is the stronger of the two although, Eleventh Hour has some good plotting and a kind of "dark" (but not too dark) air about it that supports the shows elements of suspense.
My good news, upbeat ending for this week is that my influenza is not likely to be fatal, and that the media contacts I made while in New York during the past week may prove invaluable in spreading the "good word" about biofuels in general and our "Green Shift" logo program in particular.
Oh, I didn't tell you about the "Green Shift" program did I? Well, I've got something to tell you next week then, don't I?
Sincerely,
Love and warm wishes,
Stafford "Doc" Williamson
http://winfotech.com
p.s. Several of our websites were "hacked" by nasty folks during the past couple of weeks so if you find any of them "missing-in-action" recently, please be patient, my hosting company is helping to move them to a more secure server this week.
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