India: Love thy friends, not your neighbors
Atul Chatterjee
October 18, 2008
It is a strong practical line that you should try and keep your neighbors happy, donīt pick fights with them. If they are getting aggressive disengage, squash them as a lower option. You donīt need a degree in political science or management to know this. With those afar you can be a little more liberal with your anger.
Afar and near are not defined only in geographic terms but also trade cultural relations etc. So letīs take a myopic look and only examine geographic neighbors. These are countries with international boundaries (including maritime ones) which are contiguous to India: China, Bhutan, Nepal, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and Pakistan. Sikkim used to be a neighbor until 1974 when is acceded to the India Union, now it is family. But one must remember that it was only in 2004 that China recognized it as a part of India.
China for its part never recognized the McMohan line which is supposed to be the demarcation line with India. Without going into details it occupied the Aksai Chin area the "right" ear of Kashmir, no that India had staked any physical claims to it. Much later the Indian Army woke up to the fact, that and other events led to a war in 1962 in which the Chinese overran the Indians. In the northeast and the present state of Arunachal Pradesh they held complete sway.
Over the years relations have improved specially after Rajiv Gandhi visited China in 1989. But they maintain a blow hot blow cold approach. Along with India they challenged the West during the WTO talks on agricultural liberalization. They periodically send in troops into Arunachal Pradesh, so much so that a few years ago they even constructed a helipad in an area claimed by India. During the recent search for legitimacy by India on the nuclear front they had assured support, but during talks gently tried to sabotage the deal. On the other hand Chinese exports of manufactures to India are jumping.
China has supported Pakistan, so far it has maintained a hands off policy with Nepal. But that may change once a rail link 80 km north of Kathmandu is ready, scheduled for 2012. With Myanmar they have had good relations and have grabbed a gas pipeline deal that India was trying to contest in a half baked manner. (India has not been able to tap gas in Tripura but was trying for Myanmar gas, it caused hilarity in the energy industry).
All in all China with its technological prowess a sound economy and managing social growth fairly well is in another league compared to the worldīs largest democracy. Modern China is built on the Deng Zhao Ping dictum, Build capabilities, hide abilities. Something Ogilvy and the advertisement fraternity would rubbish.
With Pakistan the story is a sad one. Kashmir was what they wanted, they got the left ear in the map and the rest remained with India. Three wars have been fought between these countries. Pakistan then launched a fourth war in the late eighties by pumping in Mujadeen from Afghanisthan and Pakistani nationals into Kashmir. Ethnic Hindus were by and large driven out of Kashmir post-1989. Subsequently after 1993 they started the fifth war, actually now it was not Pakistan but the Inter Services Intelligence (ISI). The ISI created terror cells not only in India but also in Nepal and Bangladesh. They liaisoned well with the LTTE in Sri Lanka as well.
( Later the ISI went rogue and parts remain out of control of the higher command. This is actually related to the Islamisation of the Pakistan Army after 1978 when Zia-ul-Haq took over. The Pakisan army lost its secular character.)
India under Atal Bihar Vajpaee made strides by opening bus routes to Pakistan. When we look back at 1989 it was Rajiv Gandhi who played the spoilsport ordering Operation Brasstacks when army tanks went into Pakistani territory as far as 50 kilometers. Mr Gandhi opened the door of China but got the goat of Pakistan, and that too for no real advantage. Because after that the Hindus were driven out of Kashmir.
At present there is a lot of talk of cross border terrorism but that has been there for a long time. In 2008 raising this topic is more of an election gimmick especially since Indiaīs own laws to deal with terrorism at the federal level are not in place. More recently one big step has been taken that trade at the Kashmir border is going to be allowed. This is not due to proactive steps by the government at the state or centre but the people of Kashmir getting mad with what is going on.
The Indian Union budget contains an interesting item Rs 650 billion (USD 13 billion) is reserved for "border migrants" in the Kashmir budget. You can work out what that means. Many Pakistanis have fled their country and become Indians not to become terrorists but for a better life. The Indian governments since 2004 has hardly taken any proactive positive steps with Pakistan. Government to government relations remain sour, people to people, things are usually sweet.
We were traditional rivals in hockey and cricket. With the state hockey is in, we should stop hiring western coaches and get one from Pakistan instead. That would do a world of good to relations as well as to our hockey as well.
Nepal is landlocked by India to the south. Nepalese are allowed to work in India and even join many government services. However official red tape has made their life miserable as far as getting goods from ports is concerned. Succesive government have mismanaged their economy, led by the monarchy. Now the communists are in and remains to be seen as to what they can do and undo.
They have wanted to trade with Bangladesh, strangely they are hardly able to trade with India. A Friendship treaty from 1950 has been hanging fire, they have wanted it redrafted. Now India has said it will have a relook at it. With the possibility of China becoming a major stakeholder in Nepal the Indian government needs to wake up.
Bangladesh is unique, it is in a sense the creation of India, when in 1970 the Indian army created the Mukti Bahini a gueriila force to disrupt the hold of the Pakistan army. Then in 1971 the Indian army invaded East Pakistan and Bangladesh came into being. One would have thought that relations would have been good to say the least.
Thoughts can be wrong. To date Indian goods to the northeast are not allowed transit. Bangladeshis have poured into India by the millions especially in the period 1971-75 when upward of 5 million walked in. A SAARC (South Asian Association of
Regional Cooperation) meeting talked about a road from Dhaka on to Tehran and then presumably terminating in Paris. But so far after 1971 only in 2008 has a train service between Calcutta and Dhaka begun. Talk of the Orient being locked in time!
It is also a passing comment on the state of SAARC.
Bangladesh had asked India, in 2007, for power. The selling price indicated was INR 7 (BDT 11) per kWh at that time higher than what was being supplied to the highest paying Indian customers. India has power connections with Nepal and Bhutan from where surplus power is drawn. Heard of Shylock?
40% of Bhutanīs budget is met by Indiaīs Ministry of External Affairs. Now with King Wangchuk of Bhutan bringing in democracy we will have to wait and see what happens. India has a knack of messing up relations and then parleying endlessly to restore good feelings.
With Myanmar India followed the line of the West in condemning the regime, till it realized that China was walking the trade route. India has started the same game and signed a protocol to build hydropower plants, but wait, the Chinese may build a plant without any protocol in position.
With Sri Lanka relations have been down and up. Right now they are... Having supported the LTTE and other fringe groups at one time their government had not liked India. After the Indian army got a hammering at the hands of the LTTE it was a lesson learned well. After all many of the LTTE cadres had been trained by the Indian army so this result was not shocking. What ever else Lanka prefers to play cricket with India rather than politics.
Lets look at some characteristics of Indian foreign policy
1. A penchant for signing agreements quite often without follow up.
2. Fencing borders: we have fences at Pakistan and Bangladesh, now Nepal appears to be heading the same way and who knows someone will want to fence the border with China. With Bhutan a moat would do.
3. Bullying neighbours. (Ask them how they feel)
4. A love for rhetoric (Only the Arabs outdo Indians on this).
Just as there are indexes for human development, stock prices and so on; some bright spark should invent an index for neighborhood opinion. Lets see how India fares on that scale of NRI i.e. Neighborhood Relationship Index.
Afar and near are not defined only in geographic terms but also trade cultural relations etc. So letīs take a myopic look and only examine geographic neighbors. These are countries with international boundaries (including maritime ones) which are contiguous to India: China, Bhutan, Nepal, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and Pakistan. Sikkim used to be a neighbor until 1974 when is acceded to the India Union, now it is family. But one must remember that it was only in 2004 that China recognized it as a part of India.
China for its part never recognized the McMohan line which is supposed to be the demarcation line with India. Without going into details it occupied the Aksai Chin area the "right" ear of Kashmir, no that India had staked any physical claims to it. Much later the Indian Army woke up to the fact, that and other events led to a war in 1962 in which the Chinese overran the Indians. In the northeast and the present state of Arunachal Pradesh they held complete sway.
Over the years relations have improved specially after Rajiv Gandhi visited China in 1989. But they maintain a blow hot blow cold approach. Along with India they challenged the West during the WTO talks on agricultural liberalization. They periodically send in troops into Arunachal Pradesh, so much so that a few years ago they even constructed a helipad in an area claimed by India. During the recent search for legitimacy by India on the nuclear front they had assured support, but during talks gently tried to sabotage the deal. On the other hand Chinese exports of manufactures to India are jumping.
China has supported Pakistan, so far it has maintained a hands off policy with Nepal. But that may change once a rail link 80 km north of Kathmandu is ready, scheduled for 2012. With Myanmar they have had good relations and have grabbed a gas pipeline deal that India was trying to contest in a half baked manner. (India has not been able to tap gas in Tripura but was trying for Myanmar gas, it caused hilarity in the energy industry).
All in all China with its technological prowess a sound economy and managing social growth fairly well is in another league compared to the worldīs largest democracy. Modern China is built on the Deng Zhao Ping dictum, Build capabilities, hide abilities. Something Ogilvy and the advertisement fraternity would rubbish.
With Pakistan the story is a sad one. Kashmir was what they wanted, they got the left ear in the map and the rest remained with India. Three wars have been fought between these countries. Pakistan then launched a fourth war in the late eighties by pumping in Mujadeen from Afghanisthan and Pakistani nationals into Kashmir. Ethnic Hindus were by and large driven out of Kashmir post-1989. Subsequently after 1993 they started the fifth war, actually now it was not Pakistan but the Inter Services Intelligence (ISI). The ISI created terror cells not only in India but also in Nepal and Bangladesh. They liaisoned well with the LTTE in Sri Lanka as well.
( Later the ISI went rogue and parts remain out of control of the higher command. This is actually related to the Islamisation of the Pakistan Army after 1978 when Zia-ul-Haq took over. The Pakisan army lost its secular character.)
India under Atal Bihar Vajpaee made strides by opening bus routes to Pakistan. When we look back at 1989 it was Rajiv Gandhi who played the spoilsport ordering Operation Brasstacks when army tanks went into Pakistani territory as far as 50 kilometers. Mr Gandhi opened the door of China but got the goat of Pakistan, and that too for no real advantage. Because after that the Hindus were driven out of Kashmir.
At present there is a lot of talk of cross border terrorism but that has been there for a long time. In 2008 raising this topic is more of an election gimmick especially since Indiaīs own laws to deal with terrorism at the federal level are not in place. More recently one big step has been taken that trade at the Kashmir border is going to be allowed. This is not due to proactive steps by the government at the state or centre but the people of Kashmir getting mad with what is going on.
The Indian Union budget contains an interesting item Rs 650 billion (USD 13 billion) is reserved for "border migrants" in the Kashmir budget. You can work out what that means. Many Pakistanis have fled their country and become Indians not to become terrorists but for a better life. The Indian governments since 2004 has hardly taken any proactive positive steps with Pakistan. Government to government relations remain sour, people to people, things are usually sweet.
We were traditional rivals in hockey and cricket. With the state hockey is in, we should stop hiring western coaches and get one from Pakistan instead. That would do a world of good to relations as well as to our hockey as well.
Nepal is landlocked by India to the south. Nepalese are allowed to work in India and even join many government services. However official red tape has made their life miserable as far as getting goods from ports is concerned. Succesive government have mismanaged their economy, led by the monarchy. Now the communists are in and remains to be seen as to what they can do and undo.
They have wanted to trade with Bangladesh, strangely they are hardly able to trade with India. A Friendship treaty from 1950 has been hanging fire, they have wanted it redrafted. Now India has said it will have a relook at it. With the possibility of China becoming a major stakeholder in Nepal the Indian government needs to wake up.
Bangladesh is unique, it is in a sense the creation of India, when in 1970 the Indian army created the Mukti Bahini a gueriila force to disrupt the hold of the Pakistan army. Then in 1971 the Indian army invaded East Pakistan and Bangladesh came into being. One would have thought that relations would have been good to say the least.
Thoughts can be wrong. To date Indian goods to the northeast are not allowed transit. Bangladeshis have poured into India by the millions especially in the period 1971-75 when upward of 5 million walked in. A SAARC (South Asian Association of
Regional Cooperation) meeting talked about a road from Dhaka on to Tehran and then presumably terminating in Paris. But so far after 1971 only in 2008 has a train service between Calcutta and Dhaka begun. Talk of the Orient being locked in time!
It is also a passing comment on the state of SAARC.
Bangladesh had asked India, in 2007, for power. The selling price indicated was INR 7 (BDT 11) per kWh at that time higher than what was being supplied to the highest paying Indian customers. India has power connections with Nepal and Bhutan from where surplus power is drawn. Heard of Shylock?
40% of Bhutanīs budget is met by Indiaīs Ministry of External Affairs. Now with King Wangchuk of Bhutan bringing in democracy we will have to wait and see what happens. India has a knack of messing up relations and then parleying endlessly to restore good feelings.
With Myanmar India followed the line of the West in condemning the regime, till it realized that China was walking the trade route. India has started the same game and signed a protocol to build hydropower plants, but wait, the Chinese may build a plant without any protocol in position.
With Sri Lanka relations have been down and up. Right now they are... Having supported the LTTE and other fringe groups at one time their government had not liked India. After the Indian army got a hammering at the hands of the LTTE it was a lesson learned well. After all many of the LTTE cadres had been trained by the Indian army so this result was not shocking. What ever else Lanka prefers to play cricket with India rather than politics.
Lets look at some characteristics of Indian foreign policy
1. A penchant for signing agreements quite often without follow up.
2. Fencing borders: we have fences at Pakistan and Bangladesh, now Nepal appears to be heading the same way and who knows someone will want to fence the border with China. With Bhutan a moat would do.
3. Bullying neighbours. (Ask them how they feel)
4. A love for rhetoric (Only the Arabs outdo Indians on this).
Just as there are indexes for human development, stock prices and so on; some bright spark should invent an index for neighborhood opinion. Lets see how India fares on that scale of NRI i.e. Neighborhood Relationship Index.
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