Levini Between Ideology and Pragmatism
Ahmed Hany
September 30, 2008
Tzipi Levini the Israeli Foreign Minister became the head of Kadema Party after winning marginally against Shaul Mofaz. If she could form a government within forty-two days, she would become the Israeli second woman that serves as a Prime Minister. Her rivals accuse her of inexperience particularly when military decisions need a decisive leader. She served four years in the secret service of Mosad, and this service made her security obsessive.
She is a daughter of an Argon Organization member who was a close friend to Menahem Begin. However, she was a Likud right-winger who staunchly opposed the Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty. She did not move to the center until Sharon, her custodian left the Likud to form Kadema. This move came not because she changed her ideology but because she calculated that Greater Israel would have no future. Her pragmatic personality that was refined during her service in Mosad made her follow the saying of Dayan, the late Defence Minister who had lost October War and had served as a Foreign Minister during the Egyptian-Israeli negotiations. He said, "If you don´t marry the woman you love, love your wife."
She won the election because most of the members of the party did not go to elect because of the party leaders scandals. She portrayed herself as a puritan who is against corruption. Most probably, if she called for a general election now, she would lose against Benjamin Netanyahu, the hawkish right wing.
The first thing she has to do is to keep unity of her party. Olmart did not forgive her for publicly asking him to resign after he had lost War on Lebanon and after his scandals had been known. Mofaz the Transportation Minister and ex-Army Chief declared that he would freeze his political activity for a while. If he decided to split, her party would be one of the small parties that might support a government for a ministerial post rather than leading the country. This would force her to take the next pragmatic step towards the left and give more concessions to Euhod Barak of the Worker´s party.
The second thing Levini might do is to try to prove that she is a leader who does not hesitate to fight. Her security obsessions with limited military experience in a region that its history is still being written with blood and bombs make her vulnerable to military adventurers.
Her background in Mosad affected her preferred method of negotiations. She prefers to talk secretly behind closed doors. Yet she has problems on all regional and international fronts.
Her first nightmare would be Russia, if the awoken bear decided to revenge from Israel because the later armed Georgia. The talks that military cooperation between Russia and Syria and the possibility that Russia might supply Syria with advanced weapons would make her sleepless. Israel asked the Syrians to postpone their fifth round of indirect negotiations, which was said to be crucial. Apparently, she prefers to knock at the Syrian gate wearing a Russian glove. However, this might anger her protectors the Americans. This gives a room for some military commanders to press on her to preemptive the Syrian forces before resuming talks.
Iran is her second obsession. It is known that Iran helped the Americans to occupy Afghanistan and Iraq. Recently, the Russian Ambassador in Kabul said that Russia might close its airspace for NATO´s planes. This makes the Iranian and Pakistani air space vital for the Americans and NATO for logistic purposes. The new American Administration would never forget the Russian Ambassador´s words as long as its army is in Afghanistan. Washington simply will order Israel to forget about attacking Iran. The Ambassador´s words explain the American Defence Secretary request during NATO gathering not to provoke Russia. Like the Kuwait Liberation War, other crises in the Middle East prove to the West that Israel has no positive role now in its global strategy and direct talks with countries in the region would be more constructive. Also, this gives an opportunity for Israeli military adventurers to press on Levini to attack Iran as quickly as possible during Bush´s administration.
On the Palestinian front, she said that the most important mission she has is to define secure borders for Israel. She supports the two states solution. Olmart said before leaving that who talk about Greater Israel are dreamers. He said also that the international community has started to talk about a bi-national one state. She has to do her maximum effort to gather supporters for her peace views against the more popular right wing hawkish Netanyahu. She may succumb to pressure on the weak Palestinian front and agree to attack Gaza. If the losses would be great, he would lose her political carrier.
The Arabs should not negotiate to the end of the world. Both the present American Administration and the outgoing Israeli Prime Minister Olmart said that there was a possibility to strike a deal based on the two states solution by the end of this year. What happens in Israel is an Israeli business and the Arabs should not pay for it. What if the Arabs recognized the Palestinian Authority as a state and then ask the international community to support the independence of the new state with Jerusalem its capital? This will lead us to the end game. Whether it is two states or a bi-national one state, this step will expose intentions of Israel and the new American Administration about peace and end game. If it would be one state, then uniting both countries will be a matter of negotiations. Arab forces may enter Gaza and West Bank until the new Palestinian State could keep security.
What if the Arab League, AL called for an international conference to discuss the bi-national one state solution. It might invite thinkers from all countries and from reputable strategic centers and even Palestinian and Israeli Politicians. If it would cause embarrassment for the AL to do because it supported the Arab Peace Initiative that calls for two states, a university or even a big newspaper in any Arab country might sponsor the idea. What is important for Arabs is to explore all ideas and think about how to reach their goals. They should not wait until being told by the international community that the two states solution failed and while the alternative one state would be being explored, you should be calm and control uprisings.
This will be much better than hearing the AL Secretary declaring that we are deceived again after he had said it before during the War on Lebanon.
She is a daughter of an Argon Organization member who was a close friend to Menahem Begin. However, she was a Likud right-winger who staunchly opposed the Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty. She did not move to the center until Sharon, her custodian left the Likud to form Kadema. This move came not because she changed her ideology but because she calculated that Greater Israel would have no future. Her pragmatic personality that was refined during her service in Mosad made her follow the saying of Dayan, the late Defence Minister who had lost October War and had served as a Foreign Minister during the Egyptian-Israeli negotiations. He said, "If you don´t marry the woman you love, love your wife."
She won the election because most of the members of the party did not go to elect because of the party leaders scandals. She portrayed herself as a puritan who is against corruption. Most probably, if she called for a general election now, she would lose against Benjamin Netanyahu, the hawkish right wing.
The first thing she has to do is to keep unity of her party. Olmart did not forgive her for publicly asking him to resign after he had lost War on Lebanon and after his scandals had been known. Mofaz the Transportation Minister and ex-Army Chief declared that he would freeze his political activity for a while. If he decided to split, her party would be one of the small parties that might support a government for a ministerial post rather than leading the country. This would force her to take the next pragmatic step towards the left and give more concessions to Euhod Barak of the Worker´s party.
The second thing Levini might do is to try to prove that she is a leader who does not hesitate to fight. Her security obsessions with limited military experience in a region that its history is still being written with blood and bombs make her vulnerable to military adventurers.
Her background in Mosad affected her preferred method of negotiations. She prefers to talk secretly behind closed doors. Yet she has problems on all regional and international fronts.
Her first nightmare would be Russia, if the awoken bear decided to revenge from Israel because the later armed Georgia. The talks that military cooperation between Russia and Syria and the possibility that Russia might supply Syria with advanced weapons would make her sleepless. Israel asked the Syrians to postpone their fifth round of indirect negotiations, which was said to be crucial. Apparently, she prefers to knock at the Syrian gate wearing a Russian glove. However, this might anger her protectors the Americans. This gives a room for some military commanders to press on her to preemptive the Syrian forces before resuming talks.
Iran is her second obsession. It is known that Iran helped the Americans to occupy Afghanistan and Iraq. Recently, the Russian Ambassador in Kabul said that Russia might close its airspace for NATO´s planes. This makes the Iranian and Pakistani air space vital for the Americans and NATO for logistic purposes. The new American Administration would never forget the Russian Ambassador´s words as long as its army is in Afghanistan. Washington simply will order Israel to forget about attacking Iran. The Ambassador´s words explain the American Defence Secretary request during NATO gathering not to provoke Russia. Like the Kuwait Liberation War, other crises in the Middle East prove to the West that Israel has no positive role now in its global strategy and direct talks with countries in the region would be more constructive. Also, this gives an opportunity for Israeli military adventurers to press on Levini to attack Iran as quickly as possible during Bush´s administration.
On the Palestinian front, she said that the most important mission she has is to define secure borders for Israel. She supports the two states solution. Olmart said before leaving that who talk about Greater Israel are dreamers. He said also that the international community has started to talk about a bi-national one state. She has to do her maximum effort to gather supporters for her peace views against the more popular right wing hawkish Netanyahu. She may succumb to pressure on the weak Palestinian front and agree to attack Gaza. If the losses would be great, he would lose her political carrier.
The Arabs should not negotiate to the end of the world. Both the present American Administration and the outgoing Israeli Prime Minister Olmart said that there was a possibility to strike a deal based on the two states solution by the end of this year. What happens in Israel is an Israeli business and the Arabs should not pay for it. What if the Arabs recognized the Palestinian Authority as a state and then ask the international community to support the independence of the new state with Jerusalem its capital? This will lead us to the end game. Whether it is two states or a bi-national one state, this step will expose intentions of Israel and the new American Administration about peace and end game. If it would be one state, then uniting both countries will be a matter of negotiations. Arab forces may enter Gaza and West Bank until the new Palestinian State could keep security.
What if the Arab League, AL called for an international conference to discuss the bi-national one state solution. It might invite thinkers from all countries and from reputable strategic centers and even Palestinian and Israeli Politicians. If it would cause embarrassment for the AL to do because it supported the Arab Peace Initiative that calls for two states, a university or even a big newspaper in any Arab country might sponsor the idea. What is important for Arabs is to explore all ideas and think about how to reach their goals. They should not wait until being told by the international community that the two states solution failed and while the alternative one state would be being explored, you should be calm and control uprisings.
This will be much better than hearing the AL Secretary declaring that we are deceived again after he had said it before during the War on Lebanon.
Print
Email
