Israel: Livni's Challenges
Rizwan Ghani
September 21, 2008
Livni´s Challenge published in The Jerusalem Post (http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1221745564774&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull) has summarized a wish list that will largely define her premiership provided she can overcome the formidable challenge of building a viable coalition in next six weeks starting with Olmert´s resignation. Jonathan Freedland said that Israeli primaries are notoriously difficult to call, determined more by grassroots organization and unseen horse trading than by national standing.
It is opined that a slight miscalculation on Livni´s part could bring an early general election. It will be a disaster for Kadima Party because of poor economy, defeat in 2nd Lebanon war and poor governance including endemic corruption undermining rights of women and minorities. Binyamin Netanyahu would welcome Livni´s failure to cobble a coalition because he believes that were general elections held now, his party would win. Labor's Ehud Barak also believes that he too has strong chance in general elections.
Pro-nationalist, anti-Palestine (state) Likud Party head Netanyahu´s support for coalition government will come at a price. It will compromise Livni´s support for two-state solution and undermine her support for creation of Palestine State for the safety of Israel. She joined Kadima in 2005 because she supported two-state solution.
Livni is in a catch 22 situation in which if she seeks Netanyahu´s support to form the govt., it will undermine her two-state vision. Moreover, if she dumps Likud, without coalition there will be new elections. In either case, Netanyahu is in strong bargaining position. He is demanding for election and flirting to be part of the coalition with terms and conditions that he himself cannot meet.
Reportedly, some of the smaller parties that might expect to be in the coalition are laying out their demands. Shas, which represents ultra-Orthodox voters, which has 12 seats in the Knesset ( parliament) is adamantly opposed to any division of Jerusalem. The demand will complicate Livni's commitment to negotiate a two-state peace agreement with the Palestinians, which is one of the core issues of any agreement is the future of Jerusalem. Both Israel and Palestine claim Jerusalem as their future capital.
Shas spokesman Roi Lachmanovitch reportedly said that if Jerusalem is on the negotiating table then Shas won´t be part of the coalition. Kadima has 29 seats in the 120-seat Knesset and will need Labour's 19 seats, as well as other smaller parties, probably including Shas. Livni has also proposed reaching out to the left-wing Meretz party, which has five seats.
General elections will be a disaster for Kadima party because on domestic front it has failed to stem expanding poverty (30% of Israelis are living below 2 dollar a day), deepening corruption and tackle growing unemployment. Israel´s humiliating defeat in Lebanon, persistent violation of international law in occupied Gaza and West Bank including indiscriminate killing of innocent Palestinians has undermined Kadima´s political standing within the country and internationally. Reportedly, 70 percent of ordinary Israelis oppose use of brute force in occupied Palestine and want peace in the region. Instead, they want the issue to be resolved through diplomacy and dialogue.
Historically, Israeli politicians have opted for political expediency to stay in power instead of finding a permanent solution to country´s security including Palestine problem. Negative political realities of Israeli politics will force Livni to adopt similar strategies to cobble a coalition and to stay in power. In all probability, inclusion of extreme right forces in the coalition will taint her image of ´Ms. Clean´ and prematurely end expectations of ´fresh start´ in Israeli politics. As always fresh start will prove to be a nothing more than a political rhetoric and expediency tool to grab power.
Livni´s coalition with extreme right end her two-state vision and as always it will leave Israel dependent on foreign support, financial aid which allows manipulation of country´s policies. In simple terms, Israel will continue to be puppet security state in the region that is destined to violate international laws, conventions including gross human rights violations. The deepening political, economic and security challenges within Israel, region and global level is leaving Israel more isolated. Livni will have to deal with the economic and political fallouts of dictated policies domestically and within the region.
In wake of growing globalization and interdependence Israel cannot continue acting as an island in now-where land. Its leadership cannot expect dealing with rest of the world without recognizing international laws and rights of Palestinians. To be part of global community, Livni will have to take clear stand on issues including use of force, return of Palestinian refugees, abolition of settlements and border issues including recognition of pre-war borders of Palestine state. Similarly, she will have to return Golan Heights to win trust of Syrians and in return secure continuous supply of water from Lake Kinneret.
Gaza is very much part of Palestine and Israel cannot impose its will on its 1.4 million inhabitants. Gazans like Israelis have every democratic right to choose their government. It is therefore time that political government is allowed to function in Gaza as part of two-state solution and restoration of permanent peace in the region.
Livni idea of giving up West Bank for peace in Middle East leaves question marks on fate of Gaza. It is therefore necessary that Livni outlines her two-state plan. However, the lasting solution to Palestine issue and permanent peace lies in upholding UN Resolutions and restoration of pre-war borders. But in all probability, the political fissures within Israeli political system and external influences leave little space for any political leader including Livni to resolve the issue permanently.
It is therefore a challenge for Livni to help start process for creation of independent Palestine state if she really wants to secure Israel, end political and diplomatic isolation of the country. Arab world, EU support two-state solution and it is opined that the two-state plan can still be revived (http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/sep/17/israelandthepalestinians.middleeast) provided all parties are willing to play their role. The world is waiting to see if Livni can be leader who can deliver peace to the region.
Next, Livni will have to review alleged controversial strategic engagement in Asia in Indian Held Kashmir. It is a sensitive issue for Pakistan, regional powers and rest of Muslim Umman. The use of force and foreign interference in Kashmir is already undermining peace and security in the region. It is hoped that Kashmir issue will be settled in accordance to UN Resolutions and diplomacy instead of alleged military alliance between Delhi, Washington and Israel.
Finally, formation of a viable coalition is an uphill challenge for Livni, especially a coalition that is ready to support her to test her resolve to implement two-state solution. Livni, in all probability has successfully used her two-state vision to win West's support to win domestic power struggle. However if Livni is serious in her two-state vision her foreign policy experience will be an advantage in winning support within the country, region and international platforms. As a lawyer and democratic head Livni need to end war crime against humanity to show respect for international laws and conventions. Until then independent Palestine and peace in region will remain Livni´s real challenges.
It is opined that a slight miscalculation on Livni´s part could bring an early general election. It will be a disaster for Kadima Party because of poor economy, defeat in 2nd Lebanon war and poor governance including endemic corruption undermining rights of women and minorities. Binyamin Netanyahu would welcome Livni´s failure to cobble a coalition because he believes that were general elections held now, his party would win. Labor's Ehud Barak also believes that he too has strong chance in general elections.
Pro-nationalist, anti-Palestine (state) Likud Party head Netanyahu´s support for coalition government will come at a price. It will compromise Livni´s support for two-state solution and undermine her support for creation of Palestine State for the safety of Israel. She joined Kadima in 2005 because she supported two-state solution.
Livni is in a catch 22 situation in which if she seeks Netanyahu´s support to form the govt., it will undermine her two-state vision. Moreover, if she dumps Likud, without coalition there will be new elections. In either case, Netanyahu is in strong bargaining position. He is demanding for election and flirting to be part of the coalition with terms and conditions that he himself cannot meet.
Reportedly, some of the smaller parties that might expect to be in the coalition are laying out their demands. Shas, which represents ultra-Orthodox voters, which has 12 seats in the Knesset ( parliament) is adamantly opposed to any division of Jerusalem. The demand will complicate Livni's commitment to negotiate a two-state peace agreement with the Palestinians, which is one of the core issues of any agreement is the future of Jerusalem. Both Israel and Palestine claim Jerusalem as their future capital.
Shas spokesman Roi Lachmanovitch reportedly said that if Jerusalem is on the negotiating table then Shas won´t be part of the coalition. Kadima has 29 seats in the 120-seat Knesset and will need Labour's 19 seats, as well as other smaller parties, probably including Shas. Livni has also proposed reaching out to the left-wing Meretz party, which has five seats.
General elections will be a disaster for Kadima party because on domestic front it has failed to stem expanding poverty (30% of Israelis are living below 2 dollar a day), deepening corruption and tackle growing unemployment. Israel´s humiliating defeat in Lebanon, persistent violation of international law in occupied Gaza and West Bank including indiscriminate killing of innocent Palestinians has undermined Kadima´s political standing within the country and internationally. Reportedly, 70 percent of ordinary Israelis oppose use of brute force in occupied Palestine and want peace in the region. Instead, they want the issue to be resolved through diplomacy and dialogue.
Historically, Israeli politicians have opted for political expediency to stay in power instead of finding a permanent solution to country´s security including Palestine problem. Negative political realities of Israeli politics will force Livni to adopt similar strategies to cobble a coalition and to stay in power. In all probability, inclusion of extreme right forces in the coalition will taint her image of ´Ms. Clean´ and prematurely end expectations of ´fresh start´ in Israeli politics. As always fresh start will prove to be a nothing more than a political rhetoric and expediency tool to grab power.
Livni´s coalition with extreme right end her two-state vision and as always it will leave Israel dependent on foreign support, financial aid which allows manipulation of country´s policies. In simple terms, Israel will continue to be puppet security state in the region that is destined to violate international laws, conventions including gross human rights violations. The deepening political, economic and security challenges within Israel, region and global level is leaving Israel more isolated. Livni will have to deal with the economic and political fallouts of dictated policies domestically and within the region.
In wake of growing globalization and interdependence Israel cannot continue acting as an island in now-where land. Its leadership cannot expect dealing with rest of the world without recognizing international laws and rights of Palestinians. To be part of global community, Livni will have to take clear stand on issues including use of force, return of Palestinian refugees, abolition of settlements and border issues including recognition of pre-war borders of Palestine state. Similarly, she will have to return Golan Heights to win trust of Syrians and in return secure continuous supply of water from Lake Kinneret.
Gaza is very much part of Palestine and Israel cannot impose its will on its 1.4 million inhabitants. Gazans like Israelis have every democratic right to choose their government. It is therefore time that political government is allowed to function in Gaza as part of two-state solution and restoration of permanent peace in the region.
Livni idea of giving up West Bank for peace in Middle East leaves question marks on fate of Gaza. It is therefore necessary that Livni outlines her two-state plan. However, the lasting solution to Palestine issue and permanent peace lies in upholding UN Resolutions and restoration of pre-war borders. But in all probability, the political fissures within Israeli political system and external influences leave little space for any political leader including Livni to resolve the issue permanently.
It is therefore a challenge for Livni to help start process for creation of independent Palestine state if she really wants to secure Israel, end political and diplomatic isolation of the country. Arab world, EU support two-state solution and it is opined that the two-state plan can still be revived (http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/sep/17/israelandthepalestinians.middleeast) provided all parties are willing to play their role. The world is waiting to see if Livni can be leader who can deliver peace to the region.
Next, Livni will have to review alleged controversial strategic engagement in Asia in Indian Held Kashmir. It is a sensitive issue for Pakistan, regional powers and rest of Muslim Umman. The use of force and foreign interference in Kashmir is already undermining peace and security in the region. It is hoped that Kashmir issue will be settled in accordance to UN Resolutions and diplomacy instead of alleged military alliance between Delhi, Washington and Israel.
Finally, formation of a viable coalition is an uphill challenge for Livni, especially a coalition that is ready to support her to test her resolve to implement two-state solution. Livni, in all probability has successfully used her two-state vision to win West's support to win domestic power struggle. However if Livni is serious in her two-state vision her foreign policy experience will be an advantage in winning support within the country, region and international platforms. As a lawyer and democratic head Livni need to end war crime against humanity to show respect for international laws and conventions. Until then independent Palestine and peace in region will remain Livni´s real challenges.
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