Reshaping World
Ahmed Hany
September 19, 2008
What happened in Caucasus has changed the world. However, it is early to talk about Post-Americanism or an alternative world order. The US still has the most advanced economy and the first military power. Troubles in Iraq and in Afghanistan and rising international powers, Russia, China, EU and India just made Pax-Americana in regression. Perhaps this leads to policy changes in defiant Washington, but until now no signs of change of strategy. The democrats felt the expansion of the empire beyond limits and Barak Obama said that Afghanistan is more important than Iraq. Republicans who chose John McCain believe in the importance of both fronts. Then the world is about a new administration that believes in Pax-American but plans will differ according to who will be in the White House.
In Moscow, President Medevedv said that Russia could not stand an international order in which the decisions are taken by the US only. He said that Russia does not fear a new Cold War also. One day before the American Vice president´s visit to Kiev, the alliance that loyal to the west just collapsed. Those who are loyal to Moscow have a good chance to have the majority in the Parliament. Then the Ukraine battle has started. However, all these Russian moves reflect a will to defend its vital space.
The Cold War was about geopolitical interests and ideological beliefs. Geopolitically, by the end of WWII, the Eastern Europe was occupied by the Russian Army and the American Army was occupying most of the German Lands. Both the US and the Soviet Union had an interest in abolishing the British and the French influence in the world and both helped the occupied countries to have independence. Then, they competed to have these countries in their global influence sphere.
The US marketed the capitalism as a way to prosperity. The Soviet Union spread communism as a way for justice. The failure of communism in its heartland and in the satellite countries made capitalism and free market the only available theory for advancement. The Utopian communists argue that the fault was in the application of the theory. Then the prerequisite to apply communism is to have a Utopian community, something imaginary and not practical. For example, Egypt, applying the free market ideas drew foreign direct investment and the country achieved 7% growth rate. What Egypt needs is not to regress to old ideologies that proved to be wrong. It needs fair competition rules, transparency, enforcement of laws, protections of consumers, and fair distribution of wealth through faire salaries, more spending on education and health, more services and more facilities for youth to start projects. More important Egypt needs a culture and a system that differentiate between capitalists like Talaat Harb who invest in projects to employ people and adventurers who get bank loans for their personal purposes. Then what the third world countries need is anti-corruption through mechanisms of the free market not another ideology. More important the third world countries including Egypt need a new vision for the Public Sector. Total privatization may not be the proper policy in all cases. Developing management methods and keeping a good governmental share with allowing workers to be shareholders may provide an alternative solution for the chronic problem and achieving wealth distribution targets.
Russia did not provide a comprehensive theory for advancement to gather other countries in an alliance. There were talks about the third way in Britain but the theory did not have much popularity. The Russian thinkers did not develop an alternative ideology to the free market to have a base for an international alliance.
Russia depends on Petrodollars. It has the second military power and achieved advancement in aerospace industry. However, its civilian industrial export is far from ranking it one of the industrial superpowers. The Soviet Union gave aids to the third world countries, but Russia cannot afford that. Then Russia is a rising power if it developed its industry and food production ability. To achieve this it has to solve its demographic problem by opening the country for immigrants. If Russia developed Siberia and upgraded its civilian industry, it would achieve its target of being a rival for the US.
The US is also in a situation that cannot stand a new cold war with Russia. The nature of the relation with Europe and the rift in NATO in addition to failure in Iraq and Afghanistan make it too risky to start a new cold war with a rising force that has nuclear arms. If Russia decided to take anti-West steps in Iraq and Afghanistan the US´ defeat there means end of Pax-Americana. The Russian military spending is one tenth of the American spending but the expenses of the Russian soldiers and the cost of the Russian arms production balance the formula. New advancement of Russian military technologies especially in tarns-continents rockets that could bypass anti-missile shields changed the military balance between them. Moreover, the American double standard policies and the unacceptable theories of forced democratization and creative chaos harmed the American policies much. Yet, the American dream is still valid. Still the US is the first destination for immigrants. Then the new administration will be forced not only to change Russian policies but the overall US foreign policies. If that happened then the conflict between Russia and the US would be gradually resolved.
If there would be Cold War II, it would be temporary. However, relations between East and West have changed. Are we in a transitional phase before a multipolar system?
The world witnessed the multipolar system in Europe until the second half of the twentieth century. It did not keep peace. From the middle age to the end of the WWII and Europe was a theatre for conflicts and devastating wars. Peace was imposed in Europe after power centers had moved to Washington and Moscow. To keep peace there the two superpowers divided the old continent and transferred their competition to other parts of the world in the form of wars by proxy.
It would too risky for the world to have multipolar system that its tops are nuclear armed. The trust between rivals will be eroded and everyone would think that others just conspire to destroy it. International strategic centers might push for some sort of alliance against one rising power to keep peace and stability. War in Georgia, political conflict in Ukraine, the Mediterranean Union Project, the Syrian-Israeli negotiations, the nuclear Iranian file and even Darfur could be seen as hot dialogues between future allies. Moscow tries to have a higher voice and France does the same on behalf of the EU beside the independent British, Italian and German moves to have a word. While the US is ready to confront China, the EU wants to confront it also. Sarkozy said that a Mediterranean Union could stand against rising Asian powers. Russia fears China more than the US and late American President Nixon turned down a Soviet offer to nuclear bomb China. India and China are two rivals and they fought each other several times over border conflicts. In gesture to stat reconciliation with the Islamic world, Bush met the leader of the Islamic Chinese minority. Putin applied for membership in the Islamic Organization before the American step.
The conclusion is that the world is reshaping between the defiant Pax-Americana ideology and Post-Americanism dreamers. This reshaping may take different forms. Some hot chapters might happen between Russia and NATO without fights between them. Globalist will try to promote their ideas further while national intellectuals will press for keeping their culture and for intercultural and interfaith dialogue. Multinational companies will compete with national firms and governments may take protective measures again. Human rights activists and democratization process will clash with totalitarianism. As the West believes that Russia will use military power to protect its vital space a new era may start to set new rules and stability for international relations.
The Arabs could get benefits from the transitional phase by arranging homes. The new phase is not about having alliances against the global force. This will cause loses. Even Russia will not agree. It turned down the Syrian offer to have a military base in Tartus. This shows that the target of Russia is to have faire treatment equal to its weight. Arabs should define their aims and targets should do their best to keep their culture and language. It is time to ask for their rights not for concessions. It is time to unite to be partners in the international community as a block. It is time to resolve crisis between them. Egypt, Syria and Saudi Arabia should find ways to end differences. Even concessions between them will be better than concessions for others. It is time for a global Arab-US strategic dialogue. It is time for the Arab League to act like the EU presidency. It is time to have better relations with Russia also. It is time to harmonize Arab´s interests within global strategies. The Neo-Cons will go. Start talking with Obama and McCain. The Arabs in all capitals should tell Washington and Moscow the same words. This is the way to have peace in the Middle East.
In Moscow, President Medevedv said that Russia could not stand an international order in which the decisions are taken by the US only. He said that Russia does not fear a new Cold War also. One day before the American Vice president´s visit to Kiev, the alliance that loyal to the west just collapsed. Those who are loyal to Moscow have a good chance to have the majority in the Parliament. Then the Ukraine battle has started. However, all these Russian moves reflect a will to defend its vital space.
The Cold War was about geopolitical interests and ideological beliefs. Geopolitically, by the end of WWII, the Eastern Europe was occupied by the Russian Army and the American Army was occupying most of the German Lands. Both the US and the Soviet Union had an interest in abolishing the British and the French influence in the world and both helped the occupied countries to have independence. Then, they competed to have these countries in their global influence sphere.
The US marketed the capitalism as a way to prosperity. The Soviet Union spread communism as a way for justice. The failure of communism in its heartland and in the satellite countries made capitalism and free market the only available theory for advancement. The Utopian communists argue that the fault was in the application of the theory. Then the prerequisite to apply communism is to have a Utopian community, something imaginary and not practical. For example, Egypt, applying the free market ideas drew foreign direct investment and the country achieved 7% growth rate. What Egypt needs is not to regress to old ideologies that proved to be wrong. It needs fair competition rules, transparency, enforcement of laws, protections of consumers, and fair distribution of wealth through faire salaries, more spending on education and health, more services and more facilities for youth to start projects. More important Egypt needs a culture and a system that differentiate between capitalists like Talaat Harb who invest in projects to employ people and adventurers who get bank loans for their personal purposes. Then what the third world countries need is anti-corruption through mechanisms of the free market not another ideology. More important the third world countries including Egypt need a new vision for the Public Sector. Total privatization may not be the proper policy in all cases. Developing management methods and keeping a good governmental share with allowing workers to be shareholders may provide an alternative solution for the chronic problem and achieving wealth distribution targets.
Russia did not provide a comprehensive theory for advancement to gather other countries in an alliance. There were talks about the third way in Britain but the theory did not have much popularity. The Russian thinkers did not develop an alternative ideology to the free market to have a base for an international alliance.
Russia depends on Petrodollars. It has the second military power and achieved advancement in aerospace industry. However, its civilian industrial export is far from ranking it one of the industrial superpowers. The Soviet Union gave aids to the third world countries, but Russia cannot afford that. Then Russia is a rising power if it developed its industry and food production ability. To achieve this it has to solve its demographic problem by opening the country for immigrants. If Russia developed Siberia and upgraded its civilian industry, it would achieve its target of being a rival for the US.
The US is also in a situation that cannot stand a new cold war with Russia. The nature of the relation with Europe and the rift in NATO in addition to failure in Iraq and Afghanistan make it too risky to start a new cold war with a rising force that has nuclear arms. If Russia decided to take anti-West steps in Iraq and Afghanistan the US´ defeat there means end of Pax-Americana. The Russian military spending is one tenth of the American spending but the expenses of the Russian soldiers and the cost of the Russian arms production balance the formula. New advancement of Russian military technologies especially in tarns-continents rockets that could bypass anti-missile shields changed the military balance between them. Moreover, the American double standard policies and the unacceptable theories of forced democratization and creative chaos harmed the American policies much. Yet, the American dream is still valid. Still the US is the first destination for immigrants. Then the new administration will be forced not only to change Russian policies but the overall US foreign policies. If that happened then the conflict between Russia and the US would be gradually resolved.
If there would be Cold War II, it would be temporary. However, relations between East and West have changed. Are we in a transitional phase before a multipolar system?
The world witnessed the multipolar system in Europe until the second half of the twentieth century. It did not keep peace. From the middle age to the end of the WWII and Europe was a theatre for conflicts and devastating wars. Peace was imposed in Europe after power centers had moved to Washington and Moscow. To keep peace there the two superpowers divided the old continent and transferred their competition to other parts of the world in the form of wars by proxy.
It would too risky for the world to have multipolar system that its tops are nuclear armed. The trust between rivals will be eroded and everyone would think that others just conspire to destroy it. International strategic centers might push for some sort of alliance against one rising power to keep peace and stability. War in Georgia, political conflict in Ukraine, the Mediterranean Union Project, the Syrian-Israeli negotiations, the nuclear Iranian file and even Darfur could be seen as hot dialogues between future allies. Moscow tries to have a higher voice and France does the same on behalf of the EU beside the independent British, Italian and German moves to have a word. While the US is ready to confront China, the EU wants to confront it also. Sarkozy said that a Mediterranean Union could stand against rising Asian powers. Russia fears China more than the US and late American President Nixon turned down a Soviet offer to nuclear bomb China. India and China are two rivals and they fought each other several times over border conflicts. In gesture to stat reconciliation with the Islamic world, Bush met the leader of the Islamic Chinese minority. Putin applied for membership in the Islamic Organization before the American step.
The conclusion is that the world is reshaping between the defiant Pax-Americana ideology and Post-Americanism dreamers. This reshaping may take different forms. Some hot chapters might happen between Russia and NATO without fights between them. Globalist will try to promote their ideas further while national intellectuals will press for keeping their culture and for intercultural and interfaith dialogue. Multinational companies will compete with national firms and governments may take protective measures again. Human rights activists and democratization process will clash with totalitarianism. As the West believes that Russia will use military power to protect its vital space a new era may start to set new rules and stability for international relations.
The Arabs could get benefits from the transitional phase by arranging homes. The new phase is not about having alliances against the global force. This will cause loses. Even Russia will not agree. It turned down the Syrian offer to have a military base in Tartus. This shows that the target of Russia is to have faire treatment equal to its weight. Arabs should define their aims and targets should do their best to keep their culture and language. It is time to ask for their rights not for concessions. It is time to unite to be partners in the international community as a block. It is time to resolve crisis between them. Egypt, Syria and Saudi Arabia should find ways to end differences. Even concessions between them will be better than concessions for others. It is time for a global Arab-US strategic dialogue. It is time for the Arab League to act like the EU presidency. It is time to have better relations with Russia also. It is time to harmonize Arab´s interests within global strategies. The Neo-Cons will go. Start talking with Obama and McCain. The Arabs in all capitals should tell Washington and Moscow the same words. This is the way to have peace in the Middle East.
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