Deepening Georgia Crisis
Rizwan Ghani
August 31, 2008
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has recognized the two breakaway Georgian States following the vote of the Russian Parliament to recognize South Ossetia and Abkhazia. It has added more chaos to the Georgian crisis. The two questions now vehemently being debated worldwide are: What will be the reaction of America? Europe´s likely stand on Georgia crisis. The possibility of divisions within the European Union (EU) on Russia. The differences between EU and American approach towards Russia. The fate of breakaway Georgian independent states.
Medvedev recognition of two breakaway states as president of Russian Federation could well revive politics of separatist Chechnya and Dagestan. In all probability Moscow could be more firm in its dealing with any such development in future while rest of the world seeking their independence based on Russian yardstick for South Ossetia and Abkhazia as pressure tactic or actually. The history of human rights violations by Russian forces both in Northern and Southern Caucasus is not lost to rest of the world. However, Medvedev has citied international law including Helsinki Resolution and demand of breakaway states to recognize right to independence by the two states.
The history shows that controversial independence of Kosovo and Turkish Cyprus didn´t bring the desired benefit to both states because of lack of across the board international recognition. South Ossetia and Abkhazia at the most will enjoy de facto status outside Georgian influence and like Belarus will stay dependent on Russia. However, China, Central Asia and many other states across the world are supporting Russia as west tries to hide this fact from its people. http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2008829story_29-8-2008_pg4_1.
US Sec. of State Rice has called the move ´regrettable´ and violation of basic principle of territorial integrity. Britain, France and Germany have also voiced their disappointment. Ms. Rice said the move "puts Russia in opposition to the Security Council resolution to which it is a party," referring to United Nations agreements on Georgia´s territory. Independent observers are also claiming that Russia is in violation of UNSC resolutions.
Medvedev has blamed Georgia for latest development including attack on South Ossetia. He referred to Kosovo during his statement, saying Russia had previously "displayed calm and patience" in its dealings with Georgia. "We repeatedly called for returning to the negotiating table and did not deviate from this position of ours even after the unilateral proclamation of Kosovo´s independence," he said. "However, our persistent proposals to the Georgian side to conclude agreements with Abkhazia and South Ossetia on the non-use of force remained unanswered. Regrettably, they were ignored also by NATO and even at the United Nations.
Putin has gone a step further and allegedly blamed US for Georgia standoff to help Republicans in upcoming elections. Asian news media is already speculating attack on Iran (US Blitz against Iran http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2008831story_31-8-2008_pg3_1), leaving Asians confused about American nuclear non-proliferation policies with respect to India and Iran in the region as Afghanistan burns due to failed western policies in the region (The Inside Track on Afghan wars http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2008831story_31-8-2008_pg3_4) which helps understand frustration of average people with America and west in Asia as they look for end of decades of insecurity and war that has pushed hundreds millions and millions below extreme poverty level of 1.25 dollars a day. Allegedly, 95 percent of population in Pakistan and Afghanistan are living below 2-dollar a day international poverty standards as West struggles to come up with a policy to end Afghan war. Due to lack of public support for Western policies in Asia, its leaders are under no pressure to take sides on Georgian crisis.
It can be argued that presence of Russian forces on Georgian land will be used by Moscow to achieve its strategic objectives. It will allow Medvedev to keep Duma and leadership of both breakaway states happy while Moscow reasserts itself in global politics. The dispatch of two US naval ships in addition to reports of presence of Spanish, Polish and German frigates in Black Sea lend credence to top Russian general accusing NATO of using humanitarian aid deliveries to Georgia as "cover" for a build-up of naval forces in the Black Sea and rearm Georgia.
Keeping in view the intertwined energy and economic interests of global community within the region and rest of the world in all probability Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili is the only loser. West, US and NATO are in no position to challenge Russia militarily to save Saakishvili. They instead will play the classic blame game so as to allow desperate Georgian public ditch Saakishvili as they fail to cope with adverse affects of slowing economy, rising unemployment and inflation. The Russian control of Poti, main Georgian port and other economic lifelines will precipitate end of Saakishvili sooner than later.
Saakashvili played into the hands of its Western allies when he decided to attack South Ossetia. The plummeting popularity of Saakishvili for want of good governance and rampant corruption had turned him into a burden for his global allies. It allowed west to use Saakishvili to trigger a quid pro quo response by attacking South Ossetia that allowed west to fast track lingering strategic missile deal with Poland.
Saakishvili´s latest call for Georgia´s NATO membership is nothing but reflection of his desperation to stay in power. Independent observers are of the view that expansion of NATO in Russian backyards will undermine regional security balance and fuel a new cold war, which leaving aside few major players will be rejected by rest of the world. EU, NATO members and rest of the world will not jeopardize their national interests to save Saakishvili who is already an unpopular leader. Similarly, Ukraine will not get international support because 70 percent of Ukrainians oppose the NATO membership.
Contrary to the general perception, it can be argued that US-Russian relations with European Union will not deteriorate because of economic and geostrategic interests of both parties. In wake of slowing economy, EU will not like to see cash rich Russia to execute its threat of breaking away from WTO accord. It would be interesting to see how Sarkozy manages to come up with unified message from 27-member EU platform as member states weigh their national interests including energy dependence on Russia while American, Germany, France and Britain defend Georgia.
Reportedly, Russia charged only six bn. US dollars for providing 110 bcm to former Soviet States. It sold over 150 bcm to Europe for 37 bn. US dollars. Russia plans to bring prices in former Soviet states closer to European levels (Arab News dated Aug. 31, 2007). Neither Europe nor former Soviet states can afford disruption and increase in gas prices at this stage or future. Therefore, Sarkozy´s words may be strong but will lack firm support of EU members. Eastern Europe in all probability stay neutral.
No EU nation can and will ignore oil rich Middle East´s ´Look East´ policy when economy and employment are the backbone of national strength. They cannot afford to ignore Asia. Therefore, I will not be surprised if Brussels restricts itself to statements only. German Chancellor Merkel has already ruled out sanctions against Moscow. Washington could be left alone on core issue of confronting Russia militarily. In all probability diplomacy will be the way forward and a moderate or pro-Moscow leader in Tbilisi cannot be ruled out. Similarly, for now Georgia will not be joining NATO, unless parties are ready to open a new front in Black Sea.
The relations between Russia, EU member states and America to save prospects of immense economic, political and peace benefits within region and rest of the world provided Washington is willing to scraps its missile defense shield. A careful look at the regional map shows clear encirclement of Russia, which justifies Moscow´s claims that there is no change in US policy in post Soviet Era. It is continuation of same old cold war policy.
Independent observers believe that the way forward lies in replacing US Cold war policy with economic and trade cooperation with rest of the world including Russia. Diplomacy not use force is the way forward in 21st century. The earlier Neo-conservatives understand this reality the better it would be for America and rest of the world.
Washington somehow is unwilling to read the message on the wall. In the global world cooperation, not use of force is the way forward. The nations unwilling to recognize this fact are being isolated. The growing anti-Americanism worldwide is a testimony to the failed US foreign policy relying more in use of force than diplomacy. The Georgia crisis is more of test of Washington´s foreign policy than Moscow.
Europe especially Eastern Europe will not support America over Georgia against Russia. Similarly, the shift in economic and trade activities between Europe and America to Europe and ME has enhanced importance of Asia in global market. The importance of this change is not lost to Russia even though America is unwilling to accept the ground realities. America should also recognize this fact. It can therefore be asserted that EU September 1 meeting will fail to realize desired objectives as America is unwilling to scrap its Missile Program. Therefore, Georgian crisis will turn into an eternal stalemate. The onus of avoiding the stalemate lies with America not Russia. Medvedev is right that there are no winners in cold war. It is therefore time Washington recognizes importance of cooperation as foreign policy objective instead of resorting to use of force to reap the economic, political benefits in a global world and avoid growing isolation.
Finally, average Asia has always looked at America and west as good forces standing against evil. The current occupation of Iraq, Afghanistan and support for dictators/corrupt regimes, undermining of individual constitutional liberties, political, judicial and economic systems to promote or protect capitalism/globalization/WTO policies has damaged west moral credibility in Asia and rest of the world. West including America need to take positive steps if they want to regain their lost stature, West must act as ´good force´ instead of supporting the flawed policies in region resulting in death, destruction and poverty in the region which is also a route to winning heart of average Georgians who is equally unhappy at the hands of corruption and poor governance.
Note: A portion of this article was also published in Pakistan Observer on 30th August 2008 (www.pakobserver.net)
Medvedev recognition of two breakaway states as president of Russian Federation could well revive politics of separatist Chechnya and Dagestan. In all probability Moscow could be more firm in its dealing with any such development in future while rest of the world seeking their independence based on Russian yardstick for South Ossetia and Abkhazia as pressure tactic or actually. The history of human rights violations by Russian forces both in Northern and Southern Caucasus is not lost to rest of the world. However, Medvedev has citied international law including Helsinki Resolution and demand of breakaway states to recognize right to independence by the two states.
The history shows that controversial independence of Kosovo and Turkish Cyprus didn´t bring the desired benefit to both states because of lack of across the board international recognition. South Ossetia and Abkhazia at the most will enjoy de facto status outside Georgian influence and like Belarus will stay dependent on Russia. However, China, Central Asia and many other states across the world are supporting Russia as west tries to hide this fact from its people. http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2008829story_29-8-2008_pg4_1.
US Sec. of State Rice has called the move ´regrettable´ and violation of basic principle of territorial integrity. Britain, France and Germany have also voiced their disappointment. Ms. Rice said the move "puts Russia in opposition to the Security Council resolution to which it is a party," referring to United Nations agreements on Georgia´s territory. Independent observers are also claiming that Russia is in violation of UNSC resolutions.
Medvedev has blamed Georgia for latest development including attack on South Ossetia. He referred to Kosovo during his statement, saying Russia had previously "displayed calm and patience" in its dealings with Georgia. "We repeatedly called for returning to the negotiating table and did not deviate from this position of ours even after the unilateral proclamation of Kosovo´s independence," he said. "However, our persistent proposals to the Georgian side to conclude agreements with Abkhazia and South Ossetia on the non-use of force remained unanswered. Regrettably, they were ignored also by NATO and even at the United Nations.
Putin has gone a step further and allegedly blamed US for Georgia standoff to help Republicans in upcoming elections. Asian news media is already speculating attack on Iran (US Blitz against Iran http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2008831story_31-8-2008_pg3_1), leaving Asians confused about American nuclear non-proliferation policies with respect to India and Iran in the region as Afghanistan burns due to failed western policies in the region (The Inside Track on Afghan wars http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2008831story_31-8-2008_pg3_4) which helps understand frustration of average people with America and west in Asia as they look for end of decades of insecurity and war that has pushed hundreds millions and millions below extreme poverty level of 1.25 dollars a day. Allegedly, 95 percent of population in Pakistan and Afghanistan are living below 2-dollar a day international poverty standards as West struggles to come up with a policy to end Afghan war. Due to lack of public support for Western policies in Asia, its leaders are under no pressure to take sides on Georgian crisis.
It can be argued that presence of Russian forces on Georgian land will be used by Moscow to achieve its strategic objectives. It will allow Medvedev to keep Duma and leadership of both breakaway states happy while Moscow reasserts itself in global politics. The dispatch of two US naval ships in addition to reports of presence of Spanish, Polish and German frigates in Black Sea lend credence to top Russian general accusing NATO of using humanitarian aid deliveries to Georgia as "cover" for a build-up of naval forces in the Black Sea and rearm Georgia.
Keeping in view the intertwined energy and economic interests of global community within the region and rest of the world in all probability Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili is the only loser. West, US and NATO are in no position to challenge Russia militarily to save Saakishvili. They instead will play the classic blame game so as to allow desperate Georgian public ditch Saakishvili as they fail to cope with adverse affects of slowing economy, rising unemployment and inflation. The Russian control of Poti, main Georgian port and other economic lifelines will precipitate end of Saakishvili sooner than later.
Saakashvili played into the hands of its Western allies when he decided to attack South Ossetia. The plummeting popularity of Saakishvili for want of good governance and rampant corruption had turned him into a burden for his global allies. It allowed west to use Saakishvili to trigger a quid pro quo response by attacking South Ossetia that allowed west to fast track lingering strategic missile deal with Poland.
Saakishvili´s latest call for Georgia´s NATO membership is nothing but reflection of his desperation to stay in power. Independent observers are of the view that expansion of NATO in Russian backyards will undermine regional security balance and fuel a new cold war, which leaving aside few major players will be rejected by rest of the world. EU, NATO members and rest of the world will not jeopardize their national interests to save Saakishvili who is already an unpopular leader. Similarly, Ukraine will not get international support because 70 percent of Ukrainians oppose the NATO membership.
Contrary to the general perception, it can be argued that US-Russian relations with European Union will not deteriorate because of economic and geostrategic interests of both parties. In wake of slowing economy, EU will not like to see cash rich Russia to execute its threat of breaking away from WTO accord. It would be interesting to see how Sarkozy manages to come up with unified message from 27-member EU platform as member states weigh their national interests including energy dependence on Russia while American, Germany, France and Britain defend Georgia.
Reportedly, Russia charged only six bn. US dollars for providing 110 bcm to former Soviet States. It sold over 150 bcm to Europe for 37 bn. US dollars. Russia plans to bring prices in former Soviet states closer to European levels (Arab News dated Aug. 31, 2007). Neither Europe nor former Soviet states can afford disruption and increase in gas prices at this stage or future. Therefore, Sarkozy´s words may be strong but will lack firm support of EU members. Eastern Europe in all probability stay neutral.
No EU nation can and will ignore oil rich Middle East´s ´Look East´ policy when economy and employment are the backbone of national strength. They cannot afford to ignore Asia. Therefore, I will not be surprised if Brussels restricts itself to statements only. German Chancellor Merkel has already ruled out sanctions against Moscow. Washington could be left alone on core issue of confronting Russia militarily. In all probability diplomacy will be the way forward and a moderate or pro-Moscow leader in Tbilisi cannot be ruled out. Similarly, for now Georgia will not be joining NATO, unless parties are ready to open a new front in Black Sea.
The relations between Russia, EU member states and America to save prospects of immense economic, political and peace benefits within region and rest of the world provided Washington is willing to scraps its missile defense shield. A careful look at the regional map shows clear encirclement of Russia, which justifies Moscow´s claims that there is no change in US policy in post Soviet Era. It is continuation of same old cold war policy.
Independent observers believe that the way forward lies in replacing US Cold war policy with economic and trade cooperation with rest of the world including Russia. Diplomacy not use force is the way forward in 21st century. The earlier Neo-conservatives understand this reality the better it would be for America and rest of the world.
Washington somehow is unwilling to read the message on the wall. In the global world cooperation, not use of force is the way forward. The nations unwilling to recognize this fact are being isolated. The growing anti-Americanism worldwide is a testimony to the failed US foreign policy relying more in use of force than diplomacy. The Georgia crisis is more of test of Washington´s foreign policy than Moscow.
Europe especially Eastern Europe will not support America over Georgia against Russia. Similarly, the shift in economic and trade activities between Europe and America to Europe and ME has enhanced importance of Asia in global market. The importance of this change is not lost to Russia even though America is unwilling to accept the ground realities. America should also recognize this fact. It can therefore be asserted that EU September 1 meeting will fail to realize desired objectives as America is unwilling to scrap its Missile Program. Therefore, Georgian crisis will turn into an eternal stalemate. The onus of avoiding the stalemate lies with America not Russia. Medvedev is right that there are no winners in cold war. It is therefore time Washington recognizes importance of cooperation as foreign policy objective instead of resorting to use of force to reap the economic, political benefits in a global world and avoid growing isolation.
Finally, average Asia has always looked at America and west as good forces standing against evil. The current occupation of Iraq, Afghanistan and support for dictators/corrupt regimes, undermining of individual constitutional liberties, political, judicial and economic systems to promote or protect capitalism/globalization/WTO policies has damaged west moral credibility in Asia and rest of the world. West including America need to take positive steps if they want to regain their lost stature, West must act as ´good force´ instead of supporting the flawed policies in region resulting in death, destruction and poverty in the region which is also a route to winning heart of average Georgians who is equally unhappy at the hands of corruption and poor governance.
Note: A portion of this article was also published in Pakistan Observer on 30th August 2008 (www.pakobserver.net)
Print
Email
