Obama or McCain all the same.
Ahmed Hany
August 14, 2008
Many Egyptian and Arab writers try to think about Obama and McCain the US presidential candidates from the Mideast angle. They hope that Obama would come with some better changes in the American policies. They did not answer some simple questions. What would make Obama or any other American president change his policy in the Mideast? Are there the prerequisites for this change? When does a superpower change its strategy and policy?
One can predict that both Obama and McCain will be preoccupied with the Pax-Americana and they will devise their external policies accordingly to serve the main strategy. Then the first thing a new president will address is the global balance between the US and rising superpowers. For the global balance the most important factor is Russia and whether it will take sides or not between the US and China. The relations between the US and the EU, and whether the trade would be the rock that would obstruct or even break their alliance is the second factor. Apparently, both Obama and McCain are ready to compromise with EU and Russia to have a global alliance to confront or contain rising global powers. Regional powers have nothing to do with that. Even diplomats from the Mideast will hear the same words in Washington, Moscow and other European capitals. In other words, the relative strength of regional powers will be the determinants of the general lines about global policies in the Mideast.
If the status quo continues then one predicts that peace negotiations will not have an end and the Israelis will construct more settlements. Iranian nuclear problem will be kept swinging between heating up and calming down. Worse, Sudan will enter the dark tunnel to prevent China from extracting Darfur oil. Civil wars will continue in Africa to end the Chinese presence there. Democracy and human rights will be used in double standard policies to terrorize regimes and to force them to be allies. As long as the US wins, there will be no need to change policies. Before China production is equal to the production of the US, many accords will be signed and peace will be reached to serve the alliance cause to confront the rising Asian power. Unfortunately, these accords will reflect nothing but the relative regional powers again.
This means that maximizing a regional powers weight is the only way to have a good position in the coming era. This cannot be done by frank confrontation with the superpower. However the facts that play in the favor of regional powers are. The American adventure in Iraq proved that medium sized countries are difficult for armies to occupy. The technological differences end the day this power occupied the country and its soldiers become exposed. The global forces use oil and energy in general as their first tool to embarrass each other. The theory that Israel can protect the US interest in the Mideast has failed. The US formed an alliance to liberate Kuwait and kept Israel away from sharing in it. It sent its soldiers to topple Saddam and occupy Iraq. Israel alone is not a winning card in the Iranian file even it asked the US to provide missile detection devices against the Persian state. An American victory in Iraq does not ensure long-term safety for the Hebrew state while an American defeat corners Israel in the region.
Rules have changed in the Mideast. Oil states strategies. While the cost of defending Israel is rising, security in Iraq becomes more important for the American national security. Gradually, the US will use Israel as a card not an ally. Israel felt that and it developed its relations with China and India especially the military relations. The relative weights of Arabs and Turkey are increasing.
Instead of tiring ourselves about Obama and McCain, the Arabs should both create the prerequisites for change and show a will to defend their interests. Will Arabs negotiate forever? The Arabs should define a date for their initiative that is based on two states solution. What about recognizing Palestine as state with Jerusalem its capital and declaring the authority as a republican government. Then Arabs should negotiate about independence of the state or uniting it with Israel in a federal state. This puts the new American administration in a situation that threatens its interests and it has to be solved soon.
Do Arabs wins or lose while the dollar is declining? If the Arabs decided to change their monetary system to another one that is formed from currencies basket and decide to invest in Russia, the US would calculate the loses and gains. During this oil crisis, the Saudi Arabia increased export to decrease oil prices according to an American and Western request. What did it gain for that? Why did not it bind this with regional interests in Palestine, Iraq, Lebanon and Somalia? After all policy is not charity.
Unfortunately, sometimes Arabs provide services for nothing. Hardly one knows the red lines and everybody doubts about the will to prevent others from crossing the red lines. This is the function of the Arab League and the function of the Summits to devise strategies and set priorities. At the same time, this will keep the US-Arab alliance, as the US will know that it has to consider Arabsī interests. Previously the Arab thinkers said that the international Jewish community controls economy. Now the Arabs are rich enough to have a say. Later on there were complaints about the international media and how badly it controls public opinions. Now satellite channels and newspapers are present and open for every opinion and more we have thinkers and media-persons that could do the job. The American failure in Iraq and the Israeli failure in October war and Lebanon war showed that technology advancement has an upper limit and if one can bear the cost of this upper limit then targets could be achieved.
Conspiracy theory advocates just try to put barracks to stop the nation. They are good orators and talk about resistance without providing a plan. Lastly, they are now like previously want to put the nationīs fate in the hands of the American voters. One wonders why they did not publish ads in the American newspapers asking the citizens there to choose Obama for us.
One can predict that both Obama and McCain will be preoccupied with the Pax-Americana and they will devise their external policies accordingly to serve the main strategy. Then the first thing a new president will address is the global balance between the US and rising superpowers. For the global balance the most important factor is Russia and whether it will take sides or not between the US and China. The relations between the US and the EU, and whether the trade would be the rock that would obstruct or even break their alliance is the second factor. Apparently, both Obama and McCain are ready to compromise with EU and Russia to have a global alliance to confront or contain rising global powers. Regional powers have nothing to do with that. Even diplomats from the Mideast will hear the same words in Washington, Moscow and other European capitals. In other words, the relative strength of regional powers will be the determinants of the general lines about global policies in the Mideast.
If the status quo continues then one predicts that peace negotiations will not have an end and the Israelis will construct more settlements. Iranian nuclear problem will be kept swinging between heating up and calming down. Worse, Sudan will enter the dark tunnel to prevent China from extracting Darfur oil. Civil wars will continue in Africa to end the Chinese presence there. Democracy and human rights will be used in double standard policies to terrorize regimes and to force them to be allies. As long as the US wins, there will be no need to change policies. Before China production is equal to the production of the US, many accords will be signed and peace will be reached to serve the alliance cause to confront the rising Asian power. Unfortunately, these accords will reflect nothing but the relative regional powers again.
This means that maximizing a regional powers weight is the only way to have a good position in the coming era. This cannot be done by frank confrontation with the superpower. However the facts that play in the favor of regional powers are. The American adventure in Iraq proved that medium sized countries are difficult for armies to occupy. The technological differences end the day this power occupied the country and its soldiers become exposed. The global forces use oil and energy in general as their first tool to embarrass each other. The theory that Israel can protect the US interest in the Mideast has failed. The US formed an alliance to liberate Kuwait and kept Israel away from sharing in it. It sent its soldiers to topple Saddam and occupy Iraq. Israel alone is not a winning card in the Iranian file even it asked the US to provide missile detection devices against the Persian state. An American victory in Iraq does not ensure long-term safety for the Hebrew state while an American defeat corners Israel in the region.
Rules have changed in the Mideast. Oil states strategies. While the cost of defending Israel is rising, security in Iraq becomes more important for the American national security. Gradually, the US will use Israel as a card not an ally. Israel felt that and it developed its relations with China and India especially the military relations. The relative weights of Arabs and Turkey are increasing.
Instead of tiring ourselves about Obama and McCain, the Arabs should both create the prerequisites for change and show a will to defend their interests. Will Arabs negotiate forever? The Arabs should define a date for their initiative that is based on two states solution. What about recognizing Palestine as state with Jerusalem its capital and declaring the authority as a republican government. Then Arabs should negotiate about independence of the state or uniting it with Israel in a federal state. This puts the new American administration in a situation that threatens its interests and it has to be solved soon.
Do Arabs wins or lose while the dollar is declining? If the Arabs decided to change their monetary system to another one that is formed from currencies basket and decide to invest in Russia, the US would calculate the loses and gains. During this oil crisis, the Saudi Arabia increased export to decrease oil prices according to an American and Western request. What did it gain for that? Why did not it bind this with regional interests in Palestine, Iraq, Lebanon and Somalia? After all policy is not charity.
Unfortunately, sometimes Arabs provide services for nothing. Hardly one knows the red lines and everybody doubts about the will to prevent others from crossing the red lines. This is the function of the Arab League and the function of the Summits to devise strategies and set priorities. At the same time, this will keep the US-Arab alliance, as the US will know that it has to consider Arabsī interests. Previously the Arab thinkers said that the international Jewish community controls economy. Now the Arabs are rich enough to have a say. Later on there were complaints about the international media and how badly it controls public opinions. Now satellite channels and newspapers are present and open for every opinion and more we have thinkers and media-persons that could do the job. The American failure in Iraq and the Israeli failure in October war and Lebanon war showed that technology advancement has an upper limit and if one can bear the cost of this upper limit then targets could be achieved.
Conspiracy theory advocates just try to put barracks to stop the nation. They are good orators and talk about resistance without providing a plan. Lastly, they are now like previously want to put the nationīs fate in the hands of the American voters. One wonders why they did not publish ads in the American newspapers asking the citizens there to choose Obama for us.
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