CONSERVATIVE THINK TANK, RAND CORP. SAYS BUSH's "WAR ON TERROR" DOOMED TO FAILURE

Early this week, the US Government Accountability Office (GAO) gave us even more proof of the lie that Iraq's oil revenues would pay for Iraq's infrastructure re-construction. The GAO's latest report informed us that Iraq will have a $79 Billion dollar budget surplus by year's end. They also informed us that Iraq has spent less than $4 Billion of their surplus on the country's reconstruction efforts.

On the other hand, the US taxpayers have already spent $23 Billion (to date) on the rebuilding of Iraq. (The Iraqi surplus revenue is currently sitting in international banks earning interest.) And Bush, Cheney and now McCain, want the US to stay in Iraq without a projected time for withdrawing. Even the Iraqi leadership has stated that announcing a "time-line" for withdrawal would be a good incentive for the Iraqi military and the Iraqi citizens.

Now, four days after the GAO report, the RAND CORPORATION, a conservative nonprofit Washington "think-tank" research organization, has released a comprehensive study that says that the "so called War on Terrorism is fundamentally flawed and doomed to failure."

This was not a study that was just thrown together in a few months. RAND has one of the most extensive databases in the world on terrorist activity. Their database, maintained by RAND and the Memorial Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism, has followed 648 terrorist groups in operation since 1968.

According to the study; "43% of all terrorist groups that no longer exist, were ended as the result of political processes, NOT due to military action, war or violence of any sort".

RAND's report went on to to state that, "The US will continue to fail as long as US leaders fail to understand how terrorist groups can end". The study's lead author, Mr Seth Jones, put it this way: "In most cases, military force isn't the best instrument. I would go further in every instance. FBI stats will support that the US use of the military has simply made terrorism worse, primarily because it plays into the terrorist's hands." Seth went on to say; "The United States cannot conduct an effective long-term counter terrorism campaign against al Qaeda or other terrorist groups without understanding how a terrorist groups can finally cease their activities." Seth Jones is currently a Senior Political Scientist at RAND

Among the other findings, the study notes:

>>> Religious terrorist groups take longer to eliminate than other groups. Since 1968, approximately 62% of all terrorist groups have ended, while only 32% of religious terrorist groups have done so.

>>> No religious terrorist group has achieved victory since 1968.

>>> Size is an important predictor of a groups' fate. Large groups of more than 10,000 members have been victorious more than 25 percent of the time, while victory is rare when groups are smaller than 1,000 members.

>>> There is no statistical correlation between the duration of a terrorist group and ideological motivation, economic conditions, regime type or the breadth of terrorist goals.

>>> Terrorist groups that become involved in an insurgency do not end easily. Nearly 50% of the time they end with a negotiated settlement with the government, 25% of the time they achieved victory and only 19% of the time, have military groups defeated them.

>>> Terrorist groups from upper-income countries are much more likely to be left-wing or nationalistic, and much less likely to be motivated by religion.

The RAND study says that the US should "rethink" the so-called "War on Terrorism" and they also noted that the war and occupation have totally failed to meet President Bush's stated objectives for the invasion. The report concludes that, "It was in fact, the wrong approach to begin with".

RAND stopped just short of saying that the war on terror was just a cover for Bush's assumption of dictatorial powers as president, which he did accomplish with the passing of the Patriot Act and his many, now infamous "signing statements". The study also suggest a fundamental, total rethinking of the "post-9/11, US counter-terrorism strategy".

Since 1968, the evidence has concluded that most terrorist groups ended their efforts because they joined the political process, or the local police and intelligence agencies were able to arrest or to kill the key group leaders. None of the conflicts ended due to any military pressure.

History has shown that having a so-called "War" on terror has never succeeded. In fact, calling it a "War", especially a conflict that involves any religion, is a way of "legitimizing" the terrorist goals as stated by the religious jihadists. The Washington public policy institute known as, The Brookings Institute, has also published studies showing that when President Ronald Reagan waged his great "War on Terror", the terrorist attacks on US interests tripled, as compared to the terrorists activity under President Clinton.

RAND concluded that the most effective strategies have been when the so-called "Wars" were instead called "criminal actions by criminals" and the efforts to stop them were made by law enforcement and intelligence organizations. In other words, treat the activity for what it actually is, "terrorist criminals performing criminal acts against innocent civilians". RAND's study also stated that the US should totally abandon the use of the phrase "War on Terror".

However, if this change in terminology should ever happen, John McCain would be totally without a campaign slogan.