Iran's Strategy and Arabs
Ahmed Hany
July 29, 2008
To analyze the strategy of Iran, one may call it the strategy of safe confrontation. It confronts by words only and fights by proxy not to pay the price of its battles while keeping the door open for negotiations and reconciliation with putting high prices for concessions. The aim of this strategy is the same aim of the Persian Empire, which is expansion over wide area, and domination of the Persian race in the country and keeping it from being divided. The revolutionary regime added the Shiite faith to the prerequisites of domination.
Internally, the Persians constitute only 60 % of population. The Shiites are about 70% of the seventy million. Bushmen in the West about 20% and Arabs in Arabstan that the Iranian government calls it Khuzestan are about 10%. The Arabstan was annexed and its ruler was killed with his family by the Shah in 1926. Despite having most of the country oil wells, it is a very poor region and its population cannot use the Arabic Language. The Iranian armed forces fought in the West and North during the last months. To occupy a top rank in the army or important civil sectors one should be a Persian and Shiite. After revolution, the regime is directed to serve the cause of men of religion through the one fifth that is obligatory collected for them. The Sunnis are discriminated. To keep the status quo the regime should have external danger that helps it to use the iron fist and tight hand grip over opponents.
The regime tries to present itself as the face of the Islamic world despite the fact that the Shiite is a minority compared to the Sunnis. The Sunnis do not believe in the custody of the Men of Religion, (Welaiat-Al-Faquih), and they do not pay one fifth of their income to Men of Religion. The Iranian regime considers Ayat-Allah rank holy, the Higher Guide of the state should be one of them, and he has authorities more than the Parliament and the President, while the Sunnis do not have holy persons who cannot be prosecuted and tried. So it is a silly myth to say that the Iranian regime represent the Islamic World because it names its country Islamic Republic. It represents only the Shiite faith.
Externally, whether the Shah family or the Ayat-Allah regime one finds little difference in the external policy. The Iranian regime proclaims that Bahrain, Kuwait, Azerbaijan, the Western part of Afghanistan beside the occupied Arab Land, Arabstan and the three Emirate Islands are Persian. It seeks domination over the Levant and it considers the Mountain of Lebanon a holy place. It tries to penetrate Africa through Sudan, Somalia and other countries around the origin of the Nile. It tries to penetrate Central and Southern Asia. The aim is to spread the Shiite faith and to convert Sunnis. Iran built five thousands Shiite Religious Service Places (Husaynia), in Syria the Sunni country where the tomb of Salah Al-Din is present after the Syrians became their allies. The Shiites consider Salah-Al-Din who liberated Jerusalem, a tyrant and an enemy because he ended the Shiite Ruling Family in Egypt. They consider Abu-Loloa Al-Magosi who had killed Omar Ibn Al-Khattab a martyr and his grave is considered holy place. This shows the racism of the Iranian regime.
Then what the Iranian revolutionary regime did was that using adding religious ideology to the Persian expansionism, the same thing Zionists had done when they used Judaism to the Zionists ideology to have an expansionist project.
It is a great honor for Sadat to be categorized with Salah-Al-Din and Omar Ibn Al-Khattab, after the Iranian documentary film celebrated his assassin. After all Sadat fought, negotiated, and regained his land. His views proved to be correct and the Syrians are ready now to follow his steps. He never conspired on a Moslem country to be occupied as what the Iranian regime did for Iraq. The Iranian Vice President confessed that his country abetted the Americans to occupy Iraq. The Iranian President Ahmad Negad said to Gumhori Islamit newspaper that he met two American top commanders when he was visiting Iraq. One wonders what they said to him. Did they thank him for his regime´s services? Ayat Allah Khomeini called the US the Great Devil. He welcomes opening the American Embassy and he said that there might be direct negotiations with the Americans in the near future.
In fact, one is astonished how the Arab Media let Osama Bin Laden and the Iranian regime talk on behalf of Islam. Islam refuses terrorism and condemns assassins. It does not give an authority to Men of Religion to rule people and decide for them.
Iran has put some strategic rules to reach its targets. The first rule is that no direct clashes. It uses Hezbo-Allah, Hamas, and al-Turabi group in Sudan, the Islamic Courts Group in Somalia, and the Hothis in Yemen to both stir troubles and to flex its muscles for the same of having a better negotiation position.
It always leaves the door open for reconciliation with the West and contradictory statements are always ready to show the West that the regime is ready to be a friend. The Iranian regime predicted that China and other rising Asian forces would be the most affected by oil price hikes. One should remember that when Europe issued the Euro it was 0.8 dollars. Now its value is 1.2 to 1.3 dollars. As Europe buys oil and gas in dollars, the effect is trivial. The US can withstand high oil prices. One notices that the curve of oil price goes up with Iranian statements of war and closure of the Gulf.
The Iranian regime always sends indirect message. The film that honors the Sadat´s assassin could be seen as a threatening message for President Bashar Al-Asad not to negotiate before having a green light from Tehran. Iran is not keen about Golan Heights but it wants to keep the Syrian card as long as it could be to have a deal with the West. President Bashar said that he is ready for having diplomatic and normal relation with Israel. He said also that peace between them might be reached within six months to two years. The deal between them was finalized several years ago but water was the problem. As Turkey will help solving this problem, then Syria needs this time to secure itself against Iranian revenge when it disengage itself from the unholy alliance.
Now what the Arabs have to do to keep peace with Iran and not to go into unnecessary wars as long as Iran uses confrontational strategy with them and its project threatens their interests and lands. Simply they should show their might. But how?
Although the Iran has a strategy to spreads its influence in Arabs´ land, the Arabs of the Gulf did not formulate a clear and understandable strategy to face it. This made it very difficult for other Arabs to have a collective strategy, as the Gulf became the front line since Iraq has fallen. For example, it will be difficult and unproductive for Egypt to try to stop Iranian influence in Gulf States as long as these states give a blind eye for Iranian harmful movements there.
One should ask then why there should be a collective Arab strategy to face Iran, as the Gulf States are happy with the status quo. First, the Gulf States are afraid of Iran and not happy with the status quo. Emirates try to liberate its lands but it does not try to find methods that at least force Iran to go to the international court. Second, what if Iran occupied Bahrain? Let´s remember that Khyan newspaper once proclaimed that Bahrain is an Iranian land. Simply, Egypt will find itself in a war to save Bahrain, as what happened when Saddam occupied Kuwait. That is why Gulf States led by Saudi Arabia, should formulate a strategy to face Iran either by containment or by confrontation, then other Arabs could build on this strategy to reach a collective Arab strategy. This collective strategy will prevent unnecessary wars between the Persian state and the Arab system in the future.
Then first, the Arabs should define their red lines. Are the occupied Arabstan and the three Emirates islands are included in these red lines or not. For Arabstan the Arab League asked for the liberation of this region in 1964. What the Arabs want, liberating Arabstan or reaching a deal about the rights of its people to use their language, to practice their Sunni faith without discrimination and to have a good share of their oil wealth? For the three islands, one finds Emirates not serious. Are these lands still within the red lines area or the Arab system could use them as bargaining cards for a future deal with Iran. It needs top secret logic and non emotional dialogue between the Gulf and non Gulf Arabs heads of states to define the future of these occupied lands and whether insisting on liberating them or using them as bargaining cards.
Second, the Arabs call it the Arab Gulf because, they consider both beaches, the Gulf States and Arabstan, are Arabs. Iran calls it the Persian Gulf because it proclaims that the other side is Persian. Do Arabs and Iran agree to use the term Arab-Persian Gulf? This term defines that Iran will not proclaim anything about the other side and Arabs agreed to Arabstan is a region of Arabs minority in an integral Persian state. This is a big concession from the Arab System for the sake of Gulf peace if the Arab strategy would not insist on liberating Arabstan. The Arab system cannot agree to the term Persian Gulf.
The integrity and safety of Gulf States and Saudi Arabia is a red line and Iran should know that it would confront all countries of the Arab system led by Egypt if it occupied any State in the Gulf. The Arab system will be willing to invite an international alliance to fight there as well.
Sovereignty of Lebanon is another red line for the Arab system. Any resistance should serve the interests of the country. Negotiating peace deals is a matter that the state decides. Directing arms to the citizens is a crime, and this should be punished either now or later on. Deciding wars is a state function. Lebanon should be for its all sectors and the ballot decides the majority and minority there.
The other red line is giving terrorists a sanction. Iran gave sanctuary to some terrorists who are wanted for trials here. Until now, the Arabs did not support Mogahedi Khalq and revolutionaries of Arabstan. Iran should not incite sectarian troubles as what it did in Iraq. The response is easy and the Arabs have the means to incite troubles in Arabstan.
The Arabs support the Iranian rights to use nuclear energy for peaceful purposes. However, they object and may be at the same degree or perhaps more than the West that Iran produces nuclear weapons. The Gulf suggestion that an international consortium, to produce enriched uranium for Mideast countries is a good solution for Iranian nuclear problem. Any Iranian trial to have nuclear weapons blocks Arabs´ efforts to nuclear disarm Israel.
The Arabs should share in any post war arrangements in Iraq. They have to open a frank dialogue with the Americans about the situation there. They have to call for a change of the formula there that proved to lead to more chaos. Iraq should be a secular state for all with freedom of faith and the Kurds should use their language and keep their culture. Saddam was a dictator and did harm to all. Sunnis are not responsible about his crimes. They were victims like the Shiites and the Kurds. His vice president was a Kurd. Seventeen ministers of his thirty ones were Shiite.
The Iranian Media is directed against Arabs and specially Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Al-Alam satellite channel broadcast from Cairo and Beirut and it has programs that critic the internal situation in Egypt. It talks much about lack of democracy in the Gulf States while the internal situation in Iran is worse than in Egypt and the Persian state just executes its opponents. Until now, the dish and the receiver are illegal in Iran and if one had them, he would be exposed to harsh sentence by a religious court. Arabs should broadcast a Persian language channel as a ground channel from Gulf States to reach the Iranian land. At the same time, every big Publishing House should add a Persian language to its daily newspapers sites.
Worse are the Shiite religious channels that humiliate the companions of the Prophet. It is something very sensitive for the Sunnis. The Sunnis consider Ali and Fatma two great persons. However, they do not believe that they are holy or they are at the rank of the Prophet himself. Sunnis never humiliate any one of Ali companions. In Egypt people puts sons of Ali in a high degree. Al-Azhar took some of the Shiite religious edicts and even the state took some of them in personal affairs laws. We never consider Shiite blasphemous or out of the religion. However, we never accept humiliating the Prophet´s companions specially Abu-Bakr and Omar. All these religious channels are financed by Iran. Al-Azhar should have its religious channel to broadcast the reality about Sunnis and to show that we are not enemies for the Shiite or for any other divine religion.
Lastly and most important, the Arabs should have their military defence mechanisms. It is not enough to have a written agreement. They should have their rapid deployment forces that should be ready to contain any internal crisis in any Arab state before being international. This force would have saved Sudan in an early stage and it would be of great help to Lebanon, Yemen and Somalia. They should plan for defending the Gulf from now. They should plan for post war Iraq from now.
At the same time, economic cooperation between the Arab should be developed seriously. The human rights issue and developing the political system to be more open and democratic in parallel to the economic cooperation should be addressed.
The Arabs have the means to do that and they have the means to start an enlightenment and advancement project. However, they should have the will. If they had the will, both Iran and the global system would respect their rights. They will succeed in avoiding regional wars and they will be in a position that the West and Russia will seek their alliance not imposing alliance on them. The Russian Commersat newspaper said that the Saudi proposed buying Russian arms with 2.4 billion dollars for Russia to stop supporting Iran. Personally, I don´t think this will work. Russia is a global power and defines its strategy according to its interests. It uses Iran as a bargaining card to talk with the US and NATO. But if and only if Russia finds that its interests in the region will be served more when it sides with the Arabs it will do that.
Now the Arabs and specially the Gulf Arabs have to decide their strategy for their future neighborhood with Iran. If they do not do that soon, Egypt has to decide for itself and I think it has the means and the will. After all Egypt is no less than Turkey and the Arab Peninsula is an area of power vacuum that only could be filled by Egypt. A great part of the Gulf dilemma is because Gulf States withdrew from their partnership of the Arab Industry Authority that would industrialize tanks, plans and ammunition for them. They also blocked their alliance with Egypt after Kuwait war because they feared Iran. Now they should know that fear produces defeats.
For Novels and stories by write,
http://stores.lulu.com/ahmedhany
Internally, the Persians constitute only 60 % of population. The Shiites are about 70% of the seventy million. Bushmen in the West about 20% and Arabs in Arabstan that the Iranian government calls it Khuzestan are about 10%. The Arabstan was annexed and its ruler was killed with his family by the Shah in 1926. Despite having most of the country oil wells, it is a very poor region and its population cannot use the Arabic Language. The Iranian armed forces fought in the West and North during the last months. To occupy a top rank in the army or important civil sectors one should be a Persian and Shiite. After revolution, the regime is directed to serve the cause of men of religion through the one fifth that is obligatory collected for them. The Sunnis are discriminated. To keep the status quo the regime should have external danger that helps it to use the iron fist and tight hand grip over opponents.
The regime tries to present itself as the face of the Islamic world despite the fact that the Shiite is a minority compared to the Sunnis. The Sunnis do not believe in the custody of the Men of Religion, (Welaiat-Al-Faquih), and they do not pay one fifth of their income to Men of Religion. The Iranian regime considers Ayat-Allah rank holy, the Higher Guide of the state should be one of them, and he has authorities more than the Parliament and the President, while the Sunnis do not have holy persons who cannot be prosecuted and tried. So it is a silly myth to say that the Iranian regime represent the Islamic World because it names its country Islamic Republic. It represents only the Shiite faith.
Externally, whether the Shah family or the Ayat-Allah regime one finds little difference in the external policy. The Iranian regime proclaims that Bahrain, Kuwait, Azerbaijan, the Western part of Afghanistan beside the occupied Arab Land, Arabstan and the three Emirate Islands are Persian. It seeks domination over the Levant and it considers the Mountain of Lebanon a holy place. It tries to penetrate Africa through Sudan, Somalia and other countries around the origin of the Nile. It tries to penetrate Central and Southern Asia. The aim is to spread the Shiite faith and to convert Sunnis. Iran built five thousands Shiite Religious Service Places (Husaynia), in Syria the Sunni country where the tomb of Salah Al-Din is present after the Syrians became their allies. The Shiites consider Salah-Al-Din who liberated Jerusalem, a tyrant and an enemy because he ended the Shiite Ruling Family in Egypt. They consider Abu-Loloa Al-Magosi who had killed Omar Ibn Al-Khattab a martyr and his grave is considered holy place. This shows the racism of the Iranian regime.
Then what the Iranian revolutionary regime did was that using adding religious ideology to the Persian expansionism, the same thing Zionists had done when they used Judaism to the Zionists ideology to have an expansionist project.
It is a great honor for Sadat to be categorized with Salah-Al-Din and Omar Ibn Al-Khattab, after the Iranian documentary film celebrated his assassin. After all Sadat fought, negotiated, and regained his land. His views proved to be correct and the Syrians are ready now to follow his steps. He never conspired on a Moslem country to be occupied as what the Iranian regime did for Iraq. The Iranian Vice President confessed that his country abetted the Americans to occupy Iraq. The Iranian President Ahmad Negad said to Gumhori Islamit newspaper that he met two American top commanders when he was visiting Iraq. One wonders what they said to him. Did they thank him for his regime´s services? Ayat Allah Khomeini called the US the Great Devil. He welcomes opening the American Embassy and he said that there might be direct negotiations with the Americans in the near future.
In fact, one is astonished how the Arab Media let Osama Bin Laden and the Iranian regime talk on behalf of Islam. Islam refuses terrorism and condemns assassins. It does not give an authority to Men of Religion to rule people and decide for them.
Iran has put some strategic rules to reach its targets. The first rule is that no direct clashes. It uses Hezbo-Allah, Hamas, and al-Turabi group in Sudan, the Islamic Courts Group in Somalia, and the Hothis in Yemen to both stir troubles and to flex its muscles for the same of having a better negotiation position.
It always leaves the door open for reconciliation with the West and contradictory statements are always ready to show the West that the regime is ready to be a friend. The Iranian regime predicted that China and other rising Asian forces would be the most affected by oil price hikes. One should remember that when Europe issued the Euro it was 0.8 dollars. Now its value is 1.2 to 1.3 dollars. As Europe buys oil and gas in dollars, the effect is trivial. The US can withstand high oil prices. One notices that the curve of oil price goes up with Iranian statements of war and closure of the Gulf.
The Iranian regime always sends indirect message. The film that honors the Sadat´s assassin could be seen as a threatening message for President Bashar Al-Asad not to negotiate before having a green light from Tehran. Iran is not keen about Golan Heights but it wants to keep the Syrian card as long as it could be to have a deal with the West. President Bashar said that he is ready for having diplomatic and normal relation with Israel. He said also that peace between them might be reached within six months to two years. The deal between them was finalized several years ago but water was the problem. As Turkey will help solving this problem, then Syria needs this time to secure itself against Iranian revenge when it disengage itself from the unholy alliance.
Now what the Arabs have to do to keep peace with Iran and not to go into unnecessary wars as long as Iran uses confrontational strategy with them and its project threatens their interests and lands. Simply they should show their might. But how?
Although the Iran has a strategy to spreads its influence in Arabs´ land, the Arabs of the Gulf did not formulate a clear and understandable strategy to face it. This made it very difficult for other Arabs to have a collective strategy, as the Gulf became the front line since Iraq has fallen. For example, it will be difficult and unproductive for Egypt to try to stop Iranian influence in Gulf States as long as these states give a blind eye for Iranian harmful movements there.
One should ask then why there should be a collective Arab strategy to face Iran, as the Gulf States are happy with the status quo. First, the Gulf States are afraid of Iran and not happy with the status quo. Emirates try to liberate its lands but it does not try to find methods that at least force Iran to go to the international court. Second, what if Iran occupied Bahrain? Let´s remember that Khyan newspaper once proclaimed that Bahrain is an Iranian land. Simply, Egypt will find itself in a war to save Bahrain, as what happened when Saddam occupied Kuwait. That is why Gulf States led by Saudi Arabia, should formulate a strategy to face Iran either by containment or by confrontation, then other Arabs could build on this strategy to reach a collective Arab strategy. This collective strategy will prevent unnecessary wars between the Persian state and the Arab system in the future.
Then first, the Arabs should define their red lines. Are the occupied Arabstan and the three Emirates islands are included in these red lines or not. For Arabstan the Arab League asked for the liberation of this region in 1964. What the Arabs want, liberating Arabstan or reaching a deal about the rights of its people to use their language, to practice their Sunni faith without discrimination and to have a good share of their oil wealth? For the three islands, one finds Emirates not serious. Are these lands still within the red lines area or the Arab system could use them as bargaining cards for a future deal with Iran. It needs top secret logic and non emotional dialogue between the Gulf and non Gulf Arabs heads of states to define the future of these occupied lands and whether insisting on liberating them or using them as bargaining cards.
Second, the Arabs call it the Arab Gulf because, they consider both beaches, the Gulf States and Arabstan, are Arabs. Iran calls it the Persian Gulf because it proclaims that the other side is Persian. Do Arabs and Iran agree to use the term Arab-Persian Gulf? This term defines that Iran will not proclaim anything about the other side and Arabs agreed to Arabstan is a region of Arabs minority in an integral Persian state. This is a big concession from the Arab System for the sake of Gulf peace if the Arab strategy would not insist on liberating Arabstan. The Arab system cannot agree to the term Persian Gulf.
The integrity and safety of Gulf States and Saudi Arabia is a red line and Iran should know that it would confront all countries of the Arab system led by Egypt if it occupied any State in the Gulf. The Arab system will be willing to invite an international alliance to fight there as well.
Sovereignty of Lebanon is another red line for the Arab system. Any resistance should serve the interests of the country. Negotiating peace deals is a matter that the state decides. Directing arms to the citizens is a crime, and this should be punished either now or later on. Deciding wars is a state function. Lebanon should be for its all sectors and the ballot decides the majority and minority there.
The other red line is giving terrorists a sanction. Iran gave sanctuary to some terrorists who are wanted for trials here. Until now, the Arabs did not support Mogahedi Khalq and revolutionaries of Arabstan. Iran should not incite sectarian troubles as what it did in Iraq. The response is easy and the Arabs have the means to incite troubles in Arabstan.
The Arabs support the Iranian rights to use nuclear energy for peaceful purposes. However, they object and may be at the same degree or perhaps more than the West that Iran produces nuclear weapons. The Gulf suggestion that an international consortium, to produce enriched uranium for Mideast countries is a good solution for Iranian nuclear problem. Any Iranian trial to have nuclear weapons blocks Arabs´ efforts to nuclear disarm Israel.
The Arabs should share in any post war arrangements in Iraq. They have to open a frank dialogue with the Americans about the situation there. They have to call for a change of the formula there that proved to lead to more chaos. Iraq should be a secular state for all with freedom of faith and the Kurds should use their language and keep their culture. Saddam was a dictator and did harm to all. Sunnis are not responsible about his crimes. They were victims like the Shiites and the Kurds. His vice president was a Kurd. Seventeen ministers of his thirty ones were Shiite.
The Iranian Media is directed against Arabs and specially Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Al-Alam satellite channel broadcast from Cairo and Beirut and it has programs that critic the internal situation in Egypt. It talks much about lack of democracy in the Gulf States while the internal situation in Iran is worse than in Egypt and the Persian state just executes its opponents. Until now, the dish and the receiver are illegal in Iran and if one had them, he would be exposed to harsh sentence by a religious court. Arabs should broadcast a Persian language channel as a ground channel from Gulf States to reach the Iranian land. At the same time, every big Publishing House should add a Persian language to its daily newspapers sites.
Worse are the Shiite religious channels that humiliate the companions of the Prophet. It is something very sensitive for the Sunnis. The Sunnis consider Ali and Fatma two great persons. However, they do not believe that they are holy or they are at the rank of the Prophet himself. Sunnis never humiliate any one of Ali companions. In Egypt people puts sons of Ali in a high degree. Al-Azhar took some of the Shiite religious edicts and even the state took some of them in personal affairs laws. We never consider Shiite blasphemous or out of the religion. However, we never accept humiliating the Prophet´s companions specially Abu-Bakr and Omar. All these religious channels are financed by Iran. Al-Azhar should have its religious channel to broadcast the reality about Sunnis and to show that we are not enemies for the Shiite or for any other divine religion.
Lastly and most important, the Arabs should have their military defence mechanisms. It is not enough to have a written agreement. They should have their rapid deployment forces that should be ready to contain any internal crisis in any Arab state before being international. This force would have saved Sudan in an early stage and it would be of great help to Lebanon, Yemen and Somalia. They should plan for defending the Gulf from now. They should plan for post war Iraq from now.
At the same time, economic cooperation between the Arab should be developed seriously. The human rights issue and developing the political system to be more open and democratic in parallel to the economic cooperation should be addressed.
The Arabs have the means to do that and they have the means to start an enlightenment and advancement project. However, they should have the will. If they had the will, both Iran and the global system would respect their rights. They will succeed in avoiding regional wars and they will be in a position that the West and Russia will seek their alliance not imposing alliance on them. The Russian Commersat newspaper said that the Saudi proposed buying Russian arms with 2.4 billion dollars for Russia to stop supporting Iran. Personally, I don´t think this will work. Russia is a global power and defines its strategy according to its interests. It uses Iran as a bargaining card to talk with the US and NATO. But if and only if Russia finds that its interests in the region will be served more when it sides with the Arabs it will do that.
Now the Arabs and specially the Gulf Arabs have to decide their strategy for their future neighborhood with Iran. If they do not do that soon, Egypt has to decide for itself and I think it has the means and the will. After all Egypt is no less than Turkey and the Arab Peninsula is an area of power vacuum that only could be filled by Egypt. A great part of the Gulf dilemma is because Gulf States withdrew from their partnership of the Arab Industry Authority that would industrialize tanks, plans and ammunition for them. They also blocked their alliance with Egypt after Kuwait war because they feared Iran. Now they should know that fear produces defeats.
For Novels and stories by write,
http://stores.lulu.com/ahmedhany
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