DEMOCRACY LESSONS FROM PALESTINE
Abdul - Kadir O. Etuazim
March 15, 2006
?If you want to make God laugh, tell him about your plans for tomorrow?
- Anonymous
Hamas?, the militant Palestinian Organization, recent sweeping victory in parliamentary elections in Palestine sent shivers down the spines of many in the world. Election monitors from the EU and Jimmy Carter?s Center judged the polls to be free and fair. The Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas? Fatah Party was so weakened by the shock that it could not mutter any word.
It is now time to analyze why so many could not foresee the thunderbolt from afar and proffer some new thinking on how to handle such situations. In addition, we would look at what probably blindfolded, and may continue to cloud commonsense, of analysts when it comes to prognosticating in a different cultural setting. There are two aspects to the analysis: domestic and international.
DOMESTIC
I was not surprised by the outcome of the elections. Policies based on denial and wishful thinking were pivotal in ensuring Hamas? victory. Nature abhors vacuum. The PA was so ensconced in massaging their egos ? some Palestinians might say engaged in corrupt practices ? that the basic necessities of the society were left unattended to. Hamas adept at mixing militancy and/or terrorism, depending the side of the fence one stands, with populist policies moved gradually to occupy space when created by Fatah.
This trend is likely to continue in the Arab World for some time to come. The Economist newspaper, 4th July 2002, reported in a survey that the Arab world has 38 percent of her population in the 0-14 year bracket. The next bracket, 15-59, accounts for almost 55 percent. This is against the world distribution of about 30 percent and 60 percent respectively. Any proactive party or government, in the region and any part of world, ought to see this as a wakeup call to change at all levels.
Fatah, which had been the only organization known to the older generation of Palestinians, failed to understand the effect of shifting demographic statistics. The party took for granted the votes of the younger generation. It is only hoped that some lessons have been learnt. This experience is very likely to be repeated in other parts of the Arab world. The older generation steeped in sentimental attachment to leaders of the struggle are almost in the minority of the electorate. The upcoming generation is too impatient.
Furthermore, technological advancements make it easy for information to be shared in real or near real time. The younger and less all round conservative generation is interacting in many ways. For instance, perceived shortcomings of cabinet members of the PA make the rounds over and over. The issue is not the veracity of the claims or allegations. Rather it is the effect of feeding a perception that eventually translates to an odious public image.
In addition to domestic generated gossips, easy access to international cable television ensured that news items on profligate practices of some high-ranking PA officials did not go unnoticed. The case against the status quo was piling for discerning eyes to see and attuned ears to hear, save the accused.
INTERNATIONAL
At the international level, the inadvertent but seeming culpable support for Hamas? rise stem from a genetic disposition of the International Community for poor judgment resulting in self-destruction. In another piece, the meaning of the term International Community shall be explored! By the way, let me explain my assertion of the tendency of the international community to self-destruct. Ordinary human beings may be pardoned for committing errors of applying subjective standards in interpreting data, trying to understand and predict human behavior and in interactions.
However, when a group ? supposedly endowed with the necessary manpower and tools to act otherwise ? constantly manifests gross penchant for shooting itself in the foot then, there is an urgent impetus for review and rebuke. In my public relations consulting business I never fail to impress on my clients some basic concepts:
Though the concepts appear rudimentary, a failure on any of the last three count will always have devastating consequences. It is a given that anyone knows the message to be sent. The most difficult and quite often bungled aspect is the audience. It is not unusual to assume that an audience must share our cultural takes on what constitutes a joke, for example. Equally accident-prone is the tested and trusted perspective on issues. So many variables have evolved and changed.
The international community has a tendency to assume that all cultures share a disconnect from the interconnectedness of issues. In other words, most cultures tend to take a holistic approach to events. That is to say, what happens today is linked to events dating far back and nothing is treated in absolute isolation. This important fact that is wishfully ignored or arrogantly dismissed should serve as the template for policy decisions, implementation and communication in the present day world.
Occasionally denying funding to the PA, from Yasser Arafat?s days, no matter how well intentioned sent/sends the wrong message to Palestinians and inevitably left/leaves a window of opportunity for Hamas, which it did not and will never fail to exploit. Withholding statutory funds to a democratically elected government, such as proceeds of taxation, is inimical to the long-term goal of achieving a stable Middle East. Arabs ought to know that Israel has come to stay and the Israelis ought to realize that the Palestinians must have their own state through negotiations and not by unilateral impositions.
Getting Hamas to backtrack from its hard-line position on the existence of the state of Israel can never be achieved through threats. This stance is remonstrated by the informal ceasefire Hamas has observed for one year. Sensitive negotiations should never be dragged into the realm of posturing for domestic political advantages. Nevertheless, informal channels must be opened and maintained and the international community owes the world a duty to sort out the situation.
Democracy is based, among other things, on respect for the decision of a majority in any free and fair election. This idea has been repeated up to the point that it is now prevalent thinking in almost all parts of, hitherto, undemocratic regions. Hence, any bellwether treatment of dictators as democrats, for short-term exigencies exacerbates the conflicting signals and equally suspicious interpretation of real intentions. Any exception that stabs at the very heart of any rule is no longer an exception.
This leads to the appalling reaction in some quarters to the outcome of the parliamentary election in Palestine. It is the height of idiocy to question why the electorate of any nation voted a particular party to power. Americans never relished the thought of non-Americans attempts to suggest voting patterns during the last presidential elections. Such retorts have two unintended consequences.
Firstly, the electorate would be at a quandary over the definition of democracy and why their exercise of the right to vote should attract threats. For some societies, this might evoke fears about years of domination and a ploy for ulterior motives. Perception is a trait that needs close attention in public relations.
Such reactions, also, serve to reinforce the continued popularity of and unintentionally provide cheap propaganda for the deemed pariah party. In the case of Hamas, the leadership must have loved the loading of bases to attack their victory. It does appear, unfortunately, that necessary lessons have not been fully learnt. The outcome of the ill-fated elections in Algeria that led to years of turmoil should be studied once more. Voters in the Arab world, and other emerging democracies, need to be applauded and encouraged whenever there is a large turnout. Condemning their choice is definitely not one of the ways to go about it. As such, we should never have preconceived notions about the outcome of our plans.
- Anonymous
Hamas?, the militant Palestinian Organization, recent sweeping victory in parliamentary elections in Palestine sent shivers down the spines of many in the world. Election monitors from the EU and Jimmy Carter?s Center judged the polls to be free and fair. The Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas? Fatah Party was so weakened by the shock that it could not mutter any word.
It is now time to analyze why so many could not foresee the thunderbolt from afar and proffer some new thinking on how to handle such situations. In addition, we would look at what probably blindfolded, and may continue to cloud commonsense, of analysts when it comes to prognosticating in a different cultural setting. There are two aspects to the analysis: domestic and international.
DOMESTIC
I was not surprised by the outcome of the elections. Policies based on denial and wishful thinking were pivotal in ensuring Hamas? victory. Nature abhors vacuum. The PA was so ensconced in massaging their egos ? some Palestinians might say engaged in corrupt practices ? that the basic necessities of the society were left unattended to. Hamas adept at mixing militancy and/or terrorism, depending the side of the fence one stands, with populist policies moved gradually to occupy space when created by Fatah.
This trend is likely to continue in the Arab World for some time to come. The Economist newspaper, 4th July 2002, reported in a survey that the Arab world has 38 percent of her population in the 0-14 year bracket. The next bracket, 15-59, accounts for almost 55 percent. This is against the world distribution of about 30 percent and 60 percent respectively. Any proactive party or government, in the region and any part of world, ought to see this as a wakeup call to change at all levels.
Fatah, which had been the only organization known to the older generation of Palestinians, failed to understand the effect of shifting demographic statistics. The party took for granted the votes of the younger generation. It is only hoped that some lessons have been learnt. This experience is very likely to be repeated in other parts of the Arab world. The older generation steeped in sentimental attachment to leaders of the struggle are almost in the minority of the electorate. The upcoming generation is too impatient.
Furthermore, technological advancements make it easy for information to be shared in real or near real time. The younger and less all round conservative generation is interacting in many ways. For instance, perceived shortcomings of cabinet members of the PA make the rounds over and over. The issue is not the veracity of the claims or allegations. Rather it is the effect of feeding a perception that eventually translates to an odious public image.
In addition to domestic generated gossips, easy access to international cable television ensured that news items on profligate practices of some high-ranking PA officials did not go unnoticed. The case against the status quo was piling for discerning eyes to see and attuned ears to hear, save the accused.
INTERNATIONAL
At the international level, the inadvertent but seeming culpable support for Hamas? rise stem from a genetic disposition of the International Community for poor judgment resulting in self-destruction. In another piece, the meaning of the term International Community shall be explored! By the way, let me explain my assertion of the tendency of the international community to self-destruct. Ordinary human beings may be pardoned for committing errors of applying subjective standards in interpreting data, trying to understand and predict human behavior and in interactions.
However, when a group ? supposedly endowed with the necessary manpower and tools to act otherwise ? constantly manifests gross penchant for shooting itself in the foot then, there is an urgent impetus for review and rebuke. In my public relations consulting business I never fail to impress on my clients some basic concepts:
- Intention of message
- What audience?
- Composition of the audience
- Avoid so-called tested and trusted approaches.
Though the concepts appear rudimentary, a failure on any of the last three count will always have devastating consequences. It is a given that anyone knows the message to be sent. The most difficult and quite often bungled aspect is the audience. It is not unusual to assume that an audience must share our cultural takes on what constitutes a joke, for example. Equally accident-prone is the tested and trusted perspective on issues. So many variables have evolved and changed.
The international community has a tendency to assume that all cultures share a disconnect from the interconnectedness of issues. In other words, most cultures tend to take a holistic approach to events. That is to say, what happens today is linked to events dating far back and nothing is treated in absolute isolation. This important fact that is wishfully ignored or arrogantly dismissed should serve as the template for policy decisions, implementation and communication in the present day world.
Occasionally denying funding to the PA, from Yasser Arafat?s days, no matter how well intentioned sent/sends the wrong message to Palestinians and inevitably left/leaves a window of opportunity for Hamas, which it did not and will never fail to exploit. Withholding statutory funds to a democratically elected government, such as proceeds of taxation, is inimical to the long-term goal of achieving a stable Middle East. Arabs ought to know that Israel has come to stay and the Israelis ought to realize that the Palestinians must have their own state through negotiations and not by unilateral impositions.
Getting Hamas to backtrack from its hard-line position on the existence of the state of Israel can never be achieved through threats. This stance is remonstrated by the informal ceasefire Hamas has observed for one year. Sensitive negotiations should never be dragged into the realm of posturing for domestic political advantages. Nevertheless, informal channels must be opened and maintained and the international community owes the world a duty to sort out the situation.
Democracy is based, among other things, on respect for the decision of a majority in any free and fair election. This idea has been repeated up to the point that it is now prevalent thinking in almost all parts of, hitherto, undemocratic regions. Hence, any bellwether treatment of dictators as democrats, for short-term exigencies exacerbates the conflicting signals and equally suspicious interpretation of real intentions. Any exception that stabs at the very heart of any rule is no longer an exception.
This leads to the appalling reaction in some quarters to the outcome of the parliamentary election in Palestine. It is the height of idiocy to question why the electorate of any nation voted a particular party to power. Americans never relished the thought of non-Americans attempts to suggest voting patterns during the last presidential elections. Such retorts have two unintended consequences.
Firstly, the electorate would be at a quandary over the definition of democracy and why their exercise of the right to vote should attract threats. For some societies, this might evoke fears about years of domination and a ploy for ulterior motives. Perception is a trait that needs close attention in public relations.
Such reactions, also, serve to reinforce the continued popularity of and unintentionally provide cheap propaganda for the deemed pariah party. In the case of Hamas, the leadership must have loved the loading of bases to attack their victory. It does appear, unfortunately, that necessary lessons have not been fully learnt. The outcome of the ill-fated elections in Algeria that led to years of turmoil should be studied once more. Voters in the Arab world, and other emerging democracies, need to be applauded and encouraged whenever there is a large turnout. Condemning their choice is definitely not one of the ways to go about it. As such, we should never have preconceived notions about the outcome of our plans.
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