Why Syria Now?
Ahmed Hany
July 16, 2008
Why Is Syria Now?
Ahmed Hany.
ahmedhany55@hotmail.com
The Syrian-Israeli indirect negotiations in Turkey that will be direct eventually serve both regional and international interests. News about these negotiations was declared officially, one day after Doha´s agreement, between Lebanese Leaders. It is said that Syria pressed on Hezbo-Allah to accept the agreement and that is why later on the Shiite faction put obstacles on the road to form the government.
The United States gave the green light for Turkey, France and Israel to contact Syria that is labeled in the list of states that support terrorism in Washington. President Sarkozy took the lead on a parallel path to the Syrian-Israeli path to contact Syria and to find a common background for the Syrian regime to return to the international community. Whether President Bashar and Premier Olmart will meet or not makes no difference as their delegates talk to each other in Turkey. The water problem will have a Turkish solution by supplying water to the region through a Turkish pipeline.
One should ask why the Syrian-Israeli negotiations would not be finalized now. In fact, many arrangements are needed to finalize their peace treaty. First, the period that Israel takes to withdraw its troops from Golan Heights. Israel wants it as long as twenty years. Syria accepted five years as a maximum for this withdrawal.
Second Syria wants the US and the EU to be engaged in the negotiations and agreement. This means one thing, which is Syria, is ready to pay the price. The price is abandoning its alliance with Iran. It is astonishing that Syria asked the US and the EU only to be engaged. It did not ask the Quartet to be engaged. Anyhow, the UN does nothing. However, when Syria did not mention Russia in spite of the close relation that reached to military facilities for the Russian navy in Tartus, this means that Syria stress on its willingness to pay the price. In other words, it follows Sadat rule which is the US has ninety-nine percent of the cards to solve the Mideast problem.
Third, the arrangements after a peace deal between Syria and Israel might be the most serious aspect in the process. Tehran showed uneasiness towards these negotiations. The Iranian Khyan Newspaper wrote that Syria should not sever its alliance with Iran to have small unimportant land. Syria sent its defence minister to calm down Tehran´s fears but apparently, there would serious problems. Some analysts see that the assassination of Emad Moghniah in last February marked the start of the split between Syria and both Iran and Hezbo-Allah.
It is unlikely that Tehran will let Syria go easily. The Golan Height is an Arab land. It is not unimportant at all. It is a strategic area of maximum importance. Labeling Arab land unimportant shows that Iran does not care about the Arab higher interests. Iran occupies three small Emirate lands. It and Hezbo-Allah played dirty in Lebanon when the armed Shiite group used its weapons against its nationals for Iranian sake. After the Hamas-Israel truce under Egyptian auspice, some fired a rocket from Gaza strip that would ruin the agreement and obstructing the opening of the crossings. Personally, I think Iranian fingers were behind this as Iran plays both the Lebanese and Palestinian card to serve its nuclear file and its influence in Iraq beside its dreams to reach the Mediterranean. Lately, Iran produced a film to commemorate the assassin of President Sadat. This assassin was a member in a terrorist group. Does Iran really support terrorism and welcome terrorists?
During the last month, Iranian army fought some armed men in the northern part of the country. Few months ago, it fought it southwest. Several times the Iranian artillery bomb shelled the Kurds in Northern Iraq. Britain removed Mogahedi Khalq group from the terrorists´ group. These indicate that there are some forces decided to stir troubles for the Persian state to press on it for many reasons. Iran wants Syria to wait until at least it strikes a deal with the US about the nuclear file and regional role. As long as Iran succeeded to show its ability to stir troubles everywhere in the region, it would be in a better negotiating position.
If Syria stroke a deal before the Iranian deal, Iran will blow up Lebanon and might be Syria as well with many rockets would be fired from Gaza to ruin everything. However, if the regional powers and in particular Egypt and Saudi Arabia with the help of the West and in particular the US, Britain and France could secure Syria and Lebanon and the Palestinian land, Iranian influence will be in a regression in the region. That is why the US gave the green light to contact Syria. It wants to deal with Iran after trimming its nails. Syria does not want to strike a deal before being sure about economic and military aid that will replace the Iranian aid to Damascus. Hezbo-Allah knows that it will be the first to pay after a Syrian-Israeli peace accord. Until now the Lebanese Premier refuses to negotiate because his army is weaker that Hezbo-Allah. Before the Syrian path to be completed, the security question should be answered in Lebanon. When Israel withdrew from Sheba farms, it would be necessary to disarm Hezbo-Allah to save Lebanon future civil wars. Perhaps it is the duty of the US as the global superpower and as a peace sponsor to secure Syria and Lebanon, but it is the natural regional role of Egypt and Saudi Arabia to extend hands to Syria, even if it returned on the back of the Turkish horse.
For books by the author visit,
http://stores.lulu.com/ahmedhany
Ahmed Hany.
ahmedhany55@hotmail.com
The Syrian-Israeli indirect negotiations in Turkey that will be direct eventually serve both regional and international interests. News about these negotiations was declared officially, one day after Doha´s agreement, between Lebanese Leaders. It is said that Syria pressed on Hezbo-Allah to accept the agreement and that is why later on the Shiite faction put obstacles on the road to form the government.
The United States gave the green light for Turkey, France and Israel to contact Syria that is labeled in the list of states that support terrorism in Washington. President Sarkozy took the lead on a parallel path to the Syrian-Israeli path to contact Syria and to find a common background for the Syrian regime to return to the international community. Whether President Bashar and Premier Olmart will meet or not makes no difference as their delegates talk to each other in Turkey. The water problem will have a Turkish solution by supplying water to the region through a Turkish pipeline.
One should ask why the Syrian-Israeli negotiations would not be finalized now. In fact, many arrangements are needed to finalize their peace treaty. First, the period that Israel takes to withdraw its troops from Golan Heights. Israel wants it as long as twenty years. Syria accepted five years as a maximum for this withdrawal.
Second Syria wants the US and the EU to be engaged in the negotiations and agreement. This means one thing, which is Syria, is ready to pay the price. The price is abandoning its alliance with Iran. It is astonishing that Syria asked the US and the EU only to be engaged. It did not ask the Quartet to be engaged. Anyhow, the UN does nothing. However, when Syria did not mention Russia in spite of the close relation that reached to military facilities for the Russian navy in Tartus, this means that Syria stress on its willingness to pay the price. In other words, it follows Sadat rule which is the US has ninety-nine percent of the cards to solve the Mideast problem.
Third, the arrangements after a peace deal between Syria and Israel might be the most serious aspect in the process. Tehran showed uneasiness towards these negotiations. The Iranian Khyan Newspaper wrote that Syria should not sever its alliance with Iran to have small unimportant land. Syria sent its defence minister to calm down Tehran´s fears but apparently, there would serious problems. Some analysts see that the assassination of Emad Moghniah in last February marked the start of the split between Syria and both Iran and Hezbo-Allah.
It is unlikely that Tehran will let Syria go easily. The Golan Height is an Arab land. It is not unimportant at all. It is a strategic area of maximum importance. Labeling Arab land unimportant shows that Iran does not care about the Arab higher interests. Iran occupies three small Emirate lands. It and Hezbo-Allah played dirty in Lebanon when the armed Shiite group used its weapons against its nationals for Iranian sake. After the Hamas-Israel truce under Egyptian auspice, some fired a rocket from Gaza strip that would ruin the agreement and obstructing the opening of the crossings. Personally, I think Iranian fingers were behind this as Iran plays both the Lebanese and Palestinian card to serve its nuclear file and its influence in Iraq beside its dreams to reach the Mediterranean. Lately, Iran produced a film to commemorate the assassin of President Sadat. This assassin was a member in a terrorist group. Does Iran really support terrorism and welcome terrorists?
During the last month, Iranian army fought some armed men in the northern part of the country. Few months ago, it fought it southwest. Several times the Iranian artillery bomb shelled the Kurds in Northern Iraq. Britain removed Mogahedi Khalq group from the terrorists´ group. These indicate that there are some forces decided to stir troubles for the Persian state to press on it for many reasons. Iran wants Syria to wait until at least it strikes a deal with the US about the nuclear file and regional role. As long as Iran succeeded to show its ability to stir troubles everywhere in the region, it would be in a better negotiating position.
If Syria stroke a deal before the Iranian deal, Iran will blow up Lebanon and might be Syria as well with many rockets would be fired from Gaza to ruin everything. However, if the regional powers and in particular Egypt and Saudi Arabia with the help of the West and in particular the US, Britain and France could secure Syria and Lebanon and the Palestinian land, Iranian influence will be in a regression in the region. That is why the US gave the green light to contact Syria. It wants to deal with Iran after trimming its nails. Syria does not want to strike a deal before being sure about economic and military aid that will replace the Iranian aid to Damascus. Hezbo-Allah knows that it will be the first to pay after a Syrian-Israeli peace accord. Until now the Lebanese Premier refuses to negotiate because his army is weaker that Hezbo-Allah. Before the Syrian path to be completed, the security question should be answered in Lebanon. When Israel withdrew from Sheba farms, it would be necessary to disarm Hezbo-Allah to save Lebanon future civil wars. Perhaps it is the duty of the US as the global superpower and as a peace sponsor to secure Syria and Lebanon, but it is the natural regional role of Egypt and Saudi Arabia to extend hands to Syria, even if it returned on the back of the Turkish horse.
For books by the author visit,
http://stores.lulu.com/ahmedhany
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