NK and Nuclear Nonproliferation
Rizwan Ghani
July 01, 2008
The destruction of cooling tower of Yongbyon Nuclear power plant as gesture of Pyongyang´s commitment to the declaration reached with Six-party North Korean nuclear breakthrough is a welcome development. It is hoped that in coming months and years the stated objectives of the declaration would be respected and achieved to make this world a safer place.
The second stage of declaration initiated in Sept. 07 has been reached. Reportedly, the remaining stages of the declaration will be implemented in months and years to come including sticky issues like reactor details, reprocessing program, number of nuclear weapons, and quantity of plutonium etc. For now however, NK gets to keep the inventory details. The readers can make their own guess as to what details 19,000 pages that reportedly NK handed over to US back in May or for that matter the 60 page details in latest breakthrough.
Washington is using the NK breakthrough to improve its poor foreign policy record. In fact it is the only exception in a long list of failures including Iraq war; in-tatters NATO and ISAF missions in Afghanistan; derailed ME roadmap, loss of clout in Africa to other competitors including China has left West dependent on Zimbabwe and US backed five European state failed Nabucco gas pipeline project to ease Europe´s energy dependence on Russia.
Other challenges for Washington are Moscow´s energy inroads in European energy market controlling 25 of total gas used by Europe. Gazprom chief´s proposal for setting up a European network of service stations for cars fueled by natural gas, as alternative to petrol expected to raise country´s exports to Europe to 41 percent. Natural gas is 1.7 percent cheaper than petrol. Gazprom is also planning to take up a quarter of the world´s liquefied natural gas (LNG) market in coming years. New Europe´s growing resistance to expansion of NATO and US missile defense system in Europe.
It can therefore be argued that NK nuclear breakthrough may be Bush´s only positive parting presidential legacy unless he tops it with ending two wars and immediate unconditional troop withdrawal.
In view of NK´s nuclear history the independent observers and deal skeptics are soliciting caution despite Washington sounding upbeat. However, it is too early for the world rule out hope in NK because the sanctioned population struggling to cope with decades of poverty needs a break. Reportedly, there is immense pressure from the South Korean grassroots on Seoul to ease economic and travel sanctions on North Koreans.
Personally, I believe that the thawing of China-Japan relations has left the NK factor in Pacific politically irrelevant. It can be argued NK issue could actually have been resolved in Sept. 07 had it not been Fakuda´s U-turn on Tokyo´s non-war policy in which despite public protests and lower house No vote he revived the US-Japan Indian Ocean Treaty. It will not be a surprise to see the end of treaty with political change in Tokyo as and when elections are held.
The international observers who had been soliciting diplomacy and dialogue as way forward on US-NK nuclear standoff are of the view that the breakthrough is the result of change in US foreign policy. They therefore are now are recommending adoption of similar approach towards Iran. In this regard international community including Gulf States should help US and Iran have face to face dialogue. If both US and Iran can have dialogue on Iraq why not Iran´s nuclear energy program? In wake of CIA report that there is no imminent threat from Iran´s nuclear program and IAEA´s latest ´fireball´ remarks it is all the more reason for both states to engage through diplomacy and dialogue.
Tehran is willing to engage with Brussels on nuclear issue but the independent observers have doubts about success due to undemocratic old Europe´s influence on EU, which is taken as extension of Washington in Europe. It is therefore opined that instead of Brussels, Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) could be a practical option provided Tehran agrees. SCO members could offer a Six-party like setup that could help reach consensus. The SCO platform will allow regional participation.
Similarly, engaging SCO to resolve US-Iran standoff will automatically earn the support of other regional political and energy blocks including OPEC and ME at large because SCO is itself the emerging energy block with projected 12 mbd production. In wake of results of EU-Russia energy summit and growing oil prices it will be unwise to ignore energy based political shifts in the region. EU therefore has little to offer and its past closeness to Washington at most makes it a self-imposed/propped up mouthpiece of Washington.
The skeptics cannot be blamed if EU fails to make any progress. In all fairness, Washington should engage with Iran directly to end growing political uncertainty in the region for peace and reduce oil prices.
White House spokesperson has dismissed the article ´Preparing the Battle´ by Seymour M. Hersh published in The New Yorker http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2008/07/07/080707fa_fact_hersh?currentPage=all. However, the coverage of the article by mainstream American media including CNN is self explanatory. Reportedly, Seymour is world famous for uncovering details about Vietnam War and Iraq prison scandal.
Similarly, Washington needs to uphold demand of OIC, GCC and rest of the world to make ME a nuclear free zone to help restore peace in the region. It is only possible with the dismemberment of Israel´s nuclear program including nuclear weapons. The people of ME are fed up with hypocritical international double standards on the issue where 80 million Iranians are being victimized through persistent sanctions for country´s peaceful nuclear energy program while Israel gets to keep its west backed alleged nuclear program with hundreds of warheads.
The reports of Indo-US nuclear program being cobbled outside NPT is yet another case of international double standards. Reportedly, Delhi despite having mountains of uranium is being offered advance nuclear technology, which trigger nuclear race in the region. The deal has sparked countrywide protests including strong opposition by the Indian nuclear scientists. In all probability, Delhi is very close to deciding about the fate of Indo-US nuclear deal outside NPT.
Congress leader Sonia Gandhi has asked party leadership to prepare for general elections otherwise due in (May) 2009. It could be a pressure tactic to ease the pressure of communist left, opposing the Indo-US deal. Congress govt. could fall without their support in the parliament. However, BJP, the major opposition party´s use of national security card by blaming China for its internal problems including Tibet shows that elections are in the air and so is the fate of the deal.
It is however opined that sense should prevail and both Delhi and Washington should scrap the deal because it is unpopular in India and signing it outside Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty will only make the world more unsafe.
In wake of growing oil prices, the global community including IAEA should instead help develop a central bank for 44 nations aspiring to use nuclear technology for energy generation. The UN,EU, SCO, WB, IMF and other regional and global platforms should help developing nations to adopt carbon neutral alternate technologies for energy generation as part of poverty alleviation, reduce fuel import based inflation and keep the environment clean.
The NK break through is a good omen for the rest of the world, people of NK who have received US food aid, South Koria, Pacific including Tokyo. Similarly, it will help improve relations between Japan and Peninsula and rest of Pacific with positive effects on Asia. It should also help control nuclear proliferation provided all parties fulfill their end of the bargain. However, it is only possible if the global community is ready to abandon its double standards on Iran willing to make ME a nuclear free zone and ready to help IAEA establishment central fuel bank for nuclear energy generation. The promotion and adoption of other alternation energy options is critically important to help developing world combat growing poverty and high fuel prices that are adversely affecting their daily lives at grassroots.
Finally, it is a monumental task, however if global community is ready to recognize NK is small first step in the journey for safer nuclear free world provided it is ready to uphold its end of the bargain on Iran and nuclear free ME. The ball therefore is in West, EU and Washington´s court not Iran´s.
Note: The part of this article has was also been published in op-ed section, July 1, 2008 Pakistan Observer (www.pakobserver.net).
The second stage of declaration initiated in Sept. 07 has been reached. Reportedly, the remaining stages of the declaration will be implemented in months and years to come including sticky issues like reactor details, reprocessing program, number of nuclear weapons, and quantity of plutonium etc. For now however, NK gets to keep the inventory details. The readers can make their own guess as to what details 19,000 pages that reportedly NK handed over to US back in May or for that matter the 60 page details in latest breakthrough.
Washington is using the NK breakthrough to improve its poor foreign policy record. In fact it is the only exception in a long list of failures including Iraq war; in-tatters NATO and ISAF missions in Afghanistan; derailed ME roadmap, loss of clout in Africa to other competitors including China has left West dependent on Zimbabwe and US backed five European state failed Nabucco gas pipeline project to ease Europe´s energy dependence on Russia.
Other challenges for Washington are Moscow´s energy inroads in European energy market controlling 25 of total gas used by Europe. Gazprom chief´s proposal for setting up a European network of service stations for cars fueled by natural gas, as alternative to petrol expected to raise country´s exports to Europe to 41 percent. Natural gas is 1.7 percent cheaper than petrol. Gazprom is also planning to take up a quarter of the world´s liquefied natural gas (LNG) market in coming years. New Europe´s growing resistance to expansion of NATO and US missile defense system in Europe.
It can therefore be argued that NK nuclear breakthrough may be Bush´s only positive parting presidential legacy unless he tops it with ending two wars and immediate unconditional troop withdrawal.
In view of NK´s nuclear history the independent observers and deal skeptics are soliciting caution despite Washington sounding upbeat. However, it is too early for the world rule out hope in NK because the sanctioned population struggling to cope with decades of poverty needs a break. Reportedly, there is immense pressure from the South Korean grassroots on Seoul to ease economic and travel sanctions on North Koreans.
Personally, I believe that the thawing of China-Japan relations has left the NK factor in Pacific politically irrelevant. It can be argued NK issue could actually have been resolved in Sept. 07 had it not been Fakuda´s U-turn on Tokyo´s non-war policy in which despite public protests and lower house No vote he revived the US-Japan Indian Ocean Treaty. It will not be a surprise to see the end of treaty with political change in Tokyo as and when elections are held.
The international observers who had been soliciting diplomacy and dialogue as way forward on US-NK nuclear standoff are of the view that the breakthrough is the result of change in US foreign policy. They therefore are now are recommending adoption of similar approach towards Iran. In this regard international community including Gulf States should help US and Iran have face to face dialogue. If both US and Iran can have dialogue on Iraq why not Iran´s nuclear energy program? In wake of CIA report that there is no imminent threat from Iran´s nuclear program and IAEA´s latest ´fireball´ remarks it is all the more reason for both states to engage through diplomacy and dialogue.
Tehran is willing to engage with Brussels on nuclear issue but the independent observers have doubts about success due to undemocratic old Europe´s influence on EU, which is taken as extension of Washington in Europe. It is therefore opined that instead of Brussels, Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) could be a practical option provided Tehran agrees. SCO members could offer a Six-party like setup that could help reach consensus. The SCO platform will allow regional participation.
Similarly, engaging SCO to resolve US-Iran standoff will automatically earn the support of other regional political and energy blocks including OPEC and ME at large because SCO is itself the emerging energy block with projected 12 mbd production. In wake of results of EU-Russia energy summit and growing oil prices it will be unwise to ignore energy based political shifts in the region. EU therefore has little to offer and its past closeness to Washington at most makes it a self-imposed/propped up mouthpiece of Washington.
The skeptics cannot be blamed if EU fails to make any progress. In all fairness, Washington should engage with Iran directly to end growing political uncertainty in the region for peace and reduce oil prices.
White House spokesperson has dismissed the article ´Preparing the Battle´ by Seymour M. Hersh published in The New Yorker http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2008/07/07/080707fa_fact_hersh?currentPage=all. However, the coverage of the article by mainstream American media including CNN is self explanatory. Reportedly, Seymour is world famous for uncovering details about Vietnam War and Iraq prison scandal.
Similarly, Washington needs to uphold demand of OIC, GCC and rest of the world to make ME a nuclear free zone to help restore peace in the region. It is only possible with the dismemberment of Israel´s nuclear program including nuclear weapons. The people of ME are fed up with hypocritical international double standards on the issue where 80 million Iranians are being victimized through persistent sanctions for country´s peaceful nuclear energy program while Israel gets to keep its west backed alleged nuclear program with hundreds of warheads.
The reports of Indo-US nuclear program being cobbled outside NPT is yet another case of international double standards. Reportedly, Delhi despite having mountains of uranium is being offered advance nuclear technology, which trigger nuclear race in the region. The deal has sparked countrywide protests including strong opposition by the Indian nuclear scientists. In all probability, Delhi is very close to deciding about the fate of Indo-US nuclear deal outside NPT.
Congress leader Sonia Gandhi has asked party leadership to prepare for general elections otherwise due in (May) 2009. It could be a pressure tactic to ease the pressure of communist left, opposing the Indo-US deal. Congress govt. could fall without their support in the parliament. However, BJP, the major opposition party´s use of national security card by blaming China for its internal problems including Tibet shows that elections are in the air and so is the fate of the deal.
It is however opined that sense should prevail and both Delhi and Washington should scrap the deal because it is unpopular in India and signing it outside Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty will only make the world more unsafe.
In wake of growing oil prices, the global community including IAEA should instead help develop a central bank for 44 nations aspiring to use nuclear technology for energy generation. The UN,EU, SCO, WB, IMF and other regional and global platforms should help developing nations to adopt carbon neutral alternate technologies for energy generation as part of poverty alleviation, reduce fuel import based inflation and keep the environment clean.
The NK break through is a good omen for the rest of the world, people of NK who have received US food aid, South Koria, Pacific including Tokyo. Similarly, it will help improve relations between Japan and Peninsula and rest of Pacific with positive effects on Asia. It should also help control nuclear proliferation provided all parties fulfill their end of the bargain. However, it is only possible if the global community is ready to abandon its double standards on Iran willing to make ME a nuclear free zone and ready to help IAEA establishment central fuel bank for nuclear energy generation. The promotion and adoption of other alternation energy options is critically important to help developing world combat growing poverty and high fuel prices that are adversely affecting their daily lives at grassroots.
Finally, it is a monumental task, however if global community is ready to recognize NK is small first step in the journey for safer nuclear free world provided it is ready to uphold its end of the bargain on Iran and nuclear free ME. The ball therefore is in West, EU and Washington´s court not Iran´s.
Note: The part of this article has was also been published in op-ed section, July 1, 2008 Pakistan Observer (www.pakobserver.net).
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