Tucson Real Estate Market - A Layman's Adventures
Daniel Jaffe
June 30, 2008
Tucson, Arizona - With the opening of our Tucson, Arizona branch of our Arizona DUI Law Firm nearing, we made a trip to Tucson last weekend to search for houses. Our adventures with our realtor showed us a market that is very much unfamiliar with itself, and still struggling to find equilibrium in this post bubble market.
Our target area was the Tucson Foothills, specifically School District 16 because of the good reputation for the schools, and also its proximity to downtown (for the courts for me), and to other amenities and community. We looked at homes with asking prices from around $400k up to $900k, and found that some of the homes asking around $500k were actually as nice or nicer in all respects than the ones in the $800k range. It was, in a nutshell, a mess.
Tucson seems to be a real estate market that is divided into two basic camps. Camp one includes the sellers and realtors who have come to terms with the reality of today's bad market and are asking realistic prices and therefore selling houses. Camp two includes the sellers and realtors who are using comps of yesteryear's boom, and expecting parity in today's buyer's market.
In one day we saw 12 houses. Of those, two were short sells. Several others were trying to sell to beat foreclosure. Most of them had been sitting for months on the market, and appeared to be hopelessly overpriced to sell in today's Tucson market. We also saw something that was much more rare during the bubble, sellers staying home while the house was being shown, and actually following us around. Not only did they follow, they also tried to sell us the features and benefits of the home (look, it has a pool, and don't mind that its greener than antifreeze), and to explain away the flaws (you hardly notice that Sunrise, the part where it is 3 lanes westbound, is a stone's throw away). The desperation to sell was palpable. We felt sorry for many of the would-be sellers.
From a lay-person's perspective, the writing is certainly on the wall in Tucson. Prices will continue to decline for the foreseeable future, especially for older homes. Of course I have no crystal ball, but I feel perfectly safe to wait until the right house at the right price comes along. There is no need to rush into the real estate market in Tucson, because when reality hits the sellers in Camp two, prices should decline to their correct market level.
Until then, from my unschooled perspective, but speaking as a potential and future buyer in the Tucson Market, I feel no compulsion to even consider making an offer on anything other than a well prices home.
Our target area was the Tucson Foothills, specifically School District 16 because of the good reputation for the schools, and also its proximity to downtown (for the courts for me), and to other amenities and community. We looked at homes with asking prices from around $400k up to $900k, and found that some of the homes asking around $500k were actually as nice or nicer in all respects than the ones in the $800k range. It was, in a nutshell, a mess.
Tucson seems to be a real estate market that is divided into two basic camps. Camp one includes the sellers and realtors who have come to terms with the reality of today's bad market and are asking realistic prices and therefore selling houses. Camp two includes the sellers and realtors who are using comps of yesteryear's boom, and expecting parity in today's buyer's market.
In one day we saw 12 houses. Of those, two were short sells. Several others were trying to sell to beat foreclosure. Most of them had been sitting for months on the market, and appeared to be hopelessly overpriced to sell in today's Tucson market. We also saw something that was much more rare during the bubble, sellers staying home while the house was being shown, and actually following us around. Not only did they follow, they also tried to sell us the features and benefits of the home (look, it has a pool, and don't mind that its greener than antifreeze), and to explain away the flaws (you hardly notice that Sunrise, the part where it is 3 lanes westbound, is a stone's throw away). The desperation to sell was palpable. We felt sorry for many of the would-be sellers.
From a lay-person's perspective, the writing is certainly on the wall in Tucson. Prices will continue to decline for the foreseeable future, especially for older homes. Of course I have no crystal ball, but I feel perfectly safe to wait until the right house at the right price comes along. There is no need to rush into the real estate market in Tucson, because when reality hits the sellers in Camp two, prices should decline to their correct market level.
Until then, from my unschooled perspective, but speaking as a potential and future buyer in the Tucson Market, I feel no compulsion to even consider making an offer on anything other than a well prices home.
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