Nepal´s politicians search for a democratic tie breaker
Surya B. Prasai
May 14, 2008
Recently, Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala of Nepal in calling the first sitting of the Constituent Assembly on May 28, had given indirect hint of continuing on as the next democratic coalition government head, despite his closest colleagues in the Nepali Congress pointing out that NC should opt out of a Maoist led government. The Maoists number two, Dr Babu Ram Bhattarai, has recently stated his party is fast losing patience with Prime Minister Koirala and that the octogenarian leader should immediately resign from his post in order to give "a political outlet" to the confusing state of politics in Nepal. Bhattarai fumed in front of the Nepali media in Biratnagar, stating, "The door for the formation of a new democratic government would immediately spring open" as soon as Koirala stepped down.
However, in the current political standoff, things appear easier said than done. There are definite rumors that some of the Western powers want the NC to continue heading the next government, as do some within SAARC fearing a Maoist or leftist power rise. Although the interim constitution does not prescribe who can lead a two thirds majority government, according to former Foreign Minster Chakra Prasad Bastola, affiliated with the NC, any party among the 25 represented in the new CA structure can theoretically forge the required votes and alliance structure. This kind of emerging dualistic legal argument and Koirala´s reluctance to leave Baluwatar until legally served notice through a Constitutional rollercoaster process, which he must personally head, is creating further rhetorical angst between the Maoists and the NC. The Maoists have now visibly distanced themselves from the former Seven Party Alliance leaders knowing they cannot garner full support and have started courting the eighteen other parties represented outside, including the formidable Madhesi forum, which so far remains non-committal. Even forming a simple majority government is now getting to be a major headache. While Koirala insists the SPA alliance is still alive and doing its home work well, his soothsaying is not working so well these days in the media. He has even asked the SPA leaders to tone down their verbal onslaught with little effect.
The Maoists have also launched a verbal lambast against Nepal´s monarchy after one of the King´s confidantes and former Home Minister, Kamal Thapa, who had the Rastriya Prajatantra Party, stated that the CA Assembly had to abide by all past standing agreements, which would imply first deliberating on the new constitutional structure before deciding on whether to retain Monarchy or go for a Republican structure. This is also considered the general overview of Nepal´s most prominent legal voices, including the framers of the Interim Constitution. Otherwise, Thapa indicated, this misstep could invite unforeseen political and social setbacks and even national turmoil. In a pro-Monarchy statement issued on Monday, former Prime Minister Krishna Prasad Bhattarai, one of the only two surviving founder NC members besides Koirala, stated that the abolition of monarchy could plunge the country into a grave crisis, which some in the Nepali media, have surmised as an indirect warning to all within NC and outside championing republican causes to be sensitive to the wider interests of the Hindus worldwide.
The main concern at the moment, though, is the strained political relationship between the seven party alliance leaders, despite Prachanda having called on Prime Minister Koirala to step down. The PM was described as calm in hearing him out at Baluwatar. Koirala knows he commands global democratic respect, and to amplify this part, even hosted a grand tea reception for all the new CA members elected, including the Maoists, making clear his ambition to continue on.
On the other hand, the CPN-UML appears cross both with the NC and the Maoist leaders for its own poor electoral show. According to noted writer Raghuji Pant who is also a UML Central Committee Member, his party´s agenda was openly ´photocopied´ by the other major political parties; UML, however, has adopted a principled stand in not bowing to any political pressure from the Maoists. Its leaders through a closed door meeting in Kathmandu emphasized the need to bring the current political process to a logical and peaceful conclusion. However, there are distinct rumors in Kathmandu that the Terai parties which won the fourth largest electoral berth along with 18 other fringe parties now represented in the CA, are not satisfied with the new political chess game in Kathmandu, where they are being sidelined in evolving a winning strategy. Most likely, the Terai parties might show their open displeasure in the CA if they are not given important constitutional and political slots in the near future.
Amidst this heated political pallava, the Nepali Peace Minister, Ram Chandra Poudyal, known to be a close Koirala aide, has heavily criticized the Maoists for their unpredictable actions which he states only hints at inviting authoritarianism and favoring Monarchy. However the bigger question being raised is: will PM Koirala in these difficult circumstances lead a new interim coalition government without the Maoists? Will this not contradict global democratic norms in ignoring the largest winning party, the Maoists in this case, which have the right to form a constitutional democratic government, even if it is by virtue of a simple majority? Koirala, of course, is too clever to judge on others political leadership when his own position is in jeopardy as a result of the Maoists win in the CA Poll. However, he seems sure about one thing -- jostling too much with the Maoists in future could see NC being sidelined, since the Maoists would hold the majority of cabinet positions and also head the government. It is rumored some foreign diplomats have cautioned Koirala clearly on what lies on either side of the coin, however it is he who must decide in the end on the proper democratic course ahead for Nepal.
Possibly this is why, NC has set preconditions such as the Maoists needing to dissolve the paramilitary structure, surrender or destroy all the arms not registered with UNMIN, hand over seized property to its rightful owners and end excesses to win support for the new government. It has also called for dissolution of people´s courts and the people´s government to end the current political dualism in the rule of law. The Maoists have not fully responded to these demands, although Minister of Information Krishna Bahadur Mahara replied to Poudyal´s statement stating it was not only YCL that was in the forefront of election activism, other political parties had also resorted to equally coercive youth mobilization as pointed out by the National Election Commission and foreign election observation teams. The new open verbal dual between two prominent government ministers under the Koirala administration has brought in wide media speculation that the SPA is not holding well internally.
Meanwhile there has been stepped up diplomatic activity in Nepal on the pro-Tibet protests. Chinese Ambassador to Nepal Zheng Xianglin has vehemently charged ´external elements´ for encouraging the Free Tibet protesters in Kathmandu, of whom nearly 300-500 are being arrested and released on almost a weekly basis. Zheng has criticized what he considers the presence of international organization staff in some of the protests, stating, "I hope the Nepal government can honestly carry out its commitment and not allow these anti-Chinese activities to happen so rapidly in Nepal." Although Nepal supports the one China policy, thousands of Nepali people live, study and work in Taiwan as well. China´s latest diplomatic words are being described as a strong verbal rebuke to the Nepal Government in not cooperating fully, while on the other hand, international human rights heavy weights such as Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch and local Nepali human rights groups and activists are complaining that the Tibetan protesters deserve fairer humanitarian treatment according to prevailing international law. The UN which has a formidable and expanding presence in Kathmandu has so far shied away from making any formal comments, although they too have been criticized by the Chinese Government of being involved in the act, coming as it does from an influential UN Permanent Security Council Member.
Prime Minister Koirala, has once again reassured the Chinese Government, after consulting various political quarters and SPA members, that Nepal´s soil will not be used to allow activities against Nepal´s two friendly neighbors, India or China, a consistent policy adopted by Shital Niwas, Nepal´s Foreign Ministry since 1951. Thus, amidst the domestic political tensions of coalition making, the Koirala government is now caught up in a major foreign policy dilemma on whom to support and whom to condone, the Tibet protests seeming to increase on a daily basis.
On the issue of Nepal Government formation, most likely, the political tensions between the SPA, the Maoists and the newly emerged parties will settle down by the end of next week, which otherwise will spring in a major political crisis in Nepal´s recent democratic awakening. So far, the Maoists have been favored to lead given the people´s democratic verdict. But now it seems every Nepali political party wants to field in a PM in Baluwatar, what is being openly joked as the First-by-the-PM´s-Post run-up to the historic May 28 date when the Constituent Assembly is expected to make its first sitting.
However, in the current political standoff, things appear easier said than done. There are definite rumors that some of the Western powers want the NC to continue heading the next government, as do some within SAARC fearing a Maoist or leftist power rise. Although the interim constitution does not prescribe who can lead a two thirds majority government, according to former Foreign Minster Chakra Prasad Bastola, affiliated with the NC, any party among the 25 represented in the new CA structure can theoretically forge the required votes and alliance structure. This kind of emerging dualistic legal argument and Koirala´s reluctance to leave Baluwatar until legally served notice through a Constitutional rollercoaster process, which he must personally head, is creating further rhetorical angst between the Maoists and the NC. The Maoists have now visibly distanced themselves from the former Seven Party Alliance leaders knowing they cannot garner full support and have started courting the eighteen other parties represented outside, including the formidable Madhesi forum, which so far remains non-committal. Even forming a simple majority government is now getting to be a major headache. While Koirala insists the SPA alliance is still alive and doing its home work well, his soothsaying is not working so well these days in the media. He has even asked the SPA leaders to tone down their verbal onslaught with little effect.
The Maoists have also launched a verbal lambast against Nepal´s monarchy after one of the King´s confidantes and former Home Minister, Kamal Thapa, who had the Rastriya Prajatantra Party, stated that the CA Assembly had to abide by all past standing agreements, which would imply first deliberating on the new constitutional structure before deciding on whether to retain Monarchy or go for a Republican structure. This is also considered the general overview of Nepal´s most prominent legal voices, including the framers of the Interim Constitution. Otherwise, Thapa indicated, this misstep could invite unforeseen political and social setbacks and even national turmoil. In a pro-Monarchy statement issued on Monday, former Prime Minister Krishna Prasad Bhattarai, one of the only two surviving founder NC members besides Koirala, stated that the abolition of monarchy could plunge the country into a grave crisis, which some in the Nepali media, have surmised as an indirect warning to all within NC and outside championing republican causes to be sensitive to the wider interests of the Hindus worldwide.
The main concern at the moment, though, is the strained political relationship between the seven party alliance leaders, despite Prachanda having called on Prime Minister Koirala to step down. The PM was described as calm in hearing him out at Baluwatar. Koirala knows he commands global democratic respect, and to amplify this part, even hosted a grand tea reception for all the new CA members elected, including the Maoists, making clear his ambition to continue on.
On the other hand, the CPN-UML appears cross both with the NC and the Maoist leaders for its own poor electoral show. According to noted writer Raghuji Pant who is also a UML Central Committee Member, his party´s agenda was openly ´photocopied´ by the other major political parties; UML, however, has adopted a principled stand in not bowing to any political pressure from the Maoists. Its leaders through a closed door meeting in Kathmandu emphasized the need to bring the current political process to a logical and peaceful conclusion. However, there are distinct rumors in Kathmandu that the Terai parties which won the fourth largest electoral berth along with 18 other fringe parties now represented in the CA, are not satisfied with the new political chess game in Kathmandu, where they are being sidelined in evolving a winning strategy. Most likely, the Terai parties might show their open displeasure in the CA if they are not given important constitutional and political slots in the near future.
Amidst this heated political pallava, the Nepali Peace Minister, Ram Chandra Poudyal, known to be a close Koirala aide, has heavily criticized the Maoists for their unpredictable actions which he states only hints at inviting authoritarianism and favoring Monarchy. However the bigger question being raised is: will PM Koirala in these difficult circumstances lead a new interim coalition government without the Maoists? Will this not contradict global democratic norms in ignoring the largest winning party, the Maoists in this case, which have the right to form a constitutional democratic government, even if it is by virtue of a simple majority? Koirala, of course, is too clever to judge on others political leadership when his own position is in jeopardy as a result of the Maoists win in the CA Poll. However, he seems sure about one thing -- jostling too much with the Maoists in future could see NC being sidelined, since the Maoists would hold the majority of cabinet positions and also head the government. It is rumored some foreign diplomats have cautioned Koirala clearly on what lies on either side of the coin, however it is he who must decide in the end on the proper democratic course ahead for Nepal.
Possibly this is why, NC has set preconditions such as the Maoists needing to dissolve the paramilitary structure, surrender or destroy all the arms not registered with UNMIN, hand over seized property to its rightful owners and end excesses to win support for the new government. It has also called for dissolution of people´s courts and the people´s government to end the current political dualism in the rule of law. The Maoists have not fully responded to these demands, although Minister of Information Krishna Bahadur Mahara replied to Poudyal´s statement stating it was not only YCL that was in the forefront of election activism, other political parties had also resorted to equally coercive youth mobilization as pointed out by the National Election Commission and foreign election observation teams. The new open verbal dual between two prominent government ministers under the Koirala administration has brought in wide media speculation that the SPA is not holding well internally.
Meanwhile there has been stepped up diplomatic activity in Nepal on the pro-Tibet protests. Chinese Ambassador to Nepal Zheng Xianglin has vehemently charged ´external elements´ for encouraging the Free Tibet protesters in Kathmandu, of whom nearly 300-500 are being arrested and released on almost a weekly basis. Zheng has criticized what he considers the presence of international organization staff in some of the protests, stating, "I hope the Nepal government can honestly carry out its commitment and not allow these anti-Chinese activities to happen so rapidly in Nepal." Although Nepal supports the one China policy, thousands of Nepali people live, study and work in Taiwan as well. China´s latest diplomatic words are being described as a strong verbal rebuke to the Nepal Government in not cooperating fully, while on the other hand, international human rights heavy weights such as Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch and local Nepali human rights groups and activists are complaining that the Tibetan protesters deserve fairer humanitarian treatment according to prevailing international law. The UN which has a formidable and expanding presence in Kathmandu has so far shied away from making any formal comments, although they too have been criticized by the Chinese Government of being involved in the act, coming as it does from an influential UN Permanent Security Council Member.
Prime Minister Koirala, has once again reassured the Chinese Government, after consulting various political quarters and SPA members, that Nepal´s soil will not be used to allow activities against Nepal´s two friendly neighbors, India or China, a consistent policy adopted by Shital Niwas, Nepal´s Foreign Ministry since 1951. Thus, amidst the domestic political tensions of coalition making, the Koirala government is now caught up in a major foreign policy dilemma on whom to support and whom to condone, the Tibet protests seeming to increase on a daily basis.
On the issue of Nepal Government formation, most likely, the political tensions between the SPA, the Maoists and the newly emerged parties will settle down by the end of next week, which otherwise will spring in a major political crisis in Nepal´s recent democratic awakening. So far, the Maoists have been favored to lead given the people´s democratic verdict. But now it seems every Nepali political party wants to field in a PM in Baluwatar, what is being openly joked as the First-by-the-PM´s-Post run-up to the historic May 28 date when the Constituent Assembly is expected to make its first sitting.
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