Democratic Party: Hillary's Waterloo and Obama's Foreign Policy
Rizwan Ghani
May 09, 2008
In my article Obama: North Carolina and Indiana give change a chance (http://www.americanchronicle.com/articles/60886) it was opined that American voters stick to their initial choice. Obama´s victory in North Carolina supports the assertion.
Obama´s 14-point victory in NC shows that Hillary´s negative campaign, kitchen sink philosophy failed to change voters mind. It has ended media hype that Reverend Wright factor hurt Obama campaign and Republicans will use it to their advantage in national campaign. The CNN poll shows that 69% people disapproved use of negative campaign tactics. In wake of poll result, the Republicans will have to think twice to go negative including use of Reverend Wright issue.
In my view like Ohio, where contrary to expectations and poll results Hillary won, Hillary´s 2-point win in Indiana also doesn´t reflect true voter opinion. It is a very complex issue but here is the case. Indiana like Ohio was an ´open primary´ and pro status quo Republicans by voting in large number in Ohio succeed in keeping Hillary in the race that has come to haunt Democratic this far. Reportedly some 3% Republicans turned out to vote for Hillary in Indiana. Thereby: 1) fogging Hillary win which she won by a slim margin of 51-49%. 2) Is helping her to stay in the race. Had Hillary lost both states she would have been left with no option but to step aside?
Similarly, reports show that due to national photo ID law a large young voters including students who form backbone of Obama´s support could not vote. The mainstream media however ´focused´ or deliberately ´covered´ the issue by focusing on 98-year-old nun denied the right to vote for want of photo- ID. I think proof of establishing voter identity lies with election commission that was shifted to individual based on Supreme Court decision.
In my opinion the use of Supreme Court judgment to disenfranchise large number of voters for want of mandatory photo-Id is a ´simplistic´ interpretation of national law which has resulted in complex political development for Democratic Party and the country itself in upcoming national election if Democratic Party fails to emerge united well in time offering Republicans undue political advantage.
The ´black and white´ use of judgment to deny American nationals to exercise their right to vote is inexcusable because it is a administrative prerequisite. The election commission and state authorities should have: 1) ensured timely provision of photo-ids. 2) used other options to identify individuals. It is hoped that the issue will be resolved before Nov. election for two reasons: 1) maintain transparency and avoid Florida like standoff. 2) voters cannot be disenfranchised because US Supreme Court thinks that photo-id is more important than individual´s constitutional and democratic right to vote.
The constitutional provisions as given in The Federalist 78 (written by Alexander Hamilton one of the framers of US constitution) are superior to subsequent statutes/ judgments etc. Lawmakers make laws and courts interpret laws. The courts including US Supreme Court in accordance to basic spirit of constitution and law cannot disenfranchise voters for whatever reason including administrative reasons.
Coming on the questions of Hillary staying in the race or quitting the voices from Democratic Party leadership are not helping either. The statements of Sen. D. Feinstein and staunch Hillary supporters like McGovern who want her to quit in party interest and Nancy Pelosi´s remarks that contests can continue to compete as long as they wish to show complexity of the challenge for Democratic Party itself.
It can be argued that 13% Democrat majority Congress approval ratings on Capitol Hill reflects Democratic Party´s ´indecisiveness´ that in all probability will cost the party the upcoming Congressional and Senate elections. The assertion if true could actually reverse the standoff in both houses- Obama will be the president and houses will be controlled by the Republicans because by the end of the day Democrats have failed to end Iraq war for which America voted them to power in 2006 Congress.
There is no doubt that Democratic Party in step with democratic spirit cannot stop Hillary from continuing but has to be more active to keep the party united. In my opinion Hillary will give up after West Virginia because math and map show that she has come to the end. Cash stripped Hillary is trailing in popular vote by some 689,000 votes (Obama 15,334,000 votes, Hillary 14,645,000), pledged delegates: Obama 1856, Hillary 1698 and Contests won: Obama 32 Hillary 16.
In terms of media reports and Hillary´s own calls that she needs donations because Obama is outspending her by two to one. The difference of some 26 million dollars in released figures (released on monthly basis) by both campaigns up till Pennsylvania is self-explanatory. Obama has spent 189, 101,066 million and Hillary 163,073,472.
In terms of Will Hillary quit, keeping in view the map it can asserted that after West Virginia and Kentucky in all probability Oregon should be her Waterloo.
The Obama campaign aware of their strengths is therefore ´comfortable´ with Hillary even at this stage. Hillary on the other hand is expecting a positive response from DNC's scheduled May 31 meeting on Florida and Michigan. There are some media reports that party could seat the delegates but both states will be ´disciplined´ for jumping the primary schedule as a precedent to maintain party discipline in future. In all probability instead of spending millions on re-vote in both states delegates from both states could be equally divided between both candidates. However, Party leadership is not forthcoming on possible options at this point of time but in all probability, things will be clearer in the subject after 20th of May.
In terms of Obama´s speech, being termed as party´s presidential nomination acceptance speech his clear position on Iraq calling for an end to Iraq war is a positive development. It is hoped that his campaign will clarify the road map to end Iraq war including schedule for US troop withdrawal from Iraq.
The Obama campaign has to take clear position on Afghanistan also because Europe has openly refused to support NATO´s Afghan mission because of growing pressure on coalition govt.s´ back home over human rights violations, mass population displacement and coalition´s brute use of force in the region instead of observing mission´s original UN approved reconstruction and rehabilitation plan leading to innocent deaths.
In wake of reports that US will deploy some 7000 additional US troops in Afghanistan, the independent observers are of the view that Washington has decided to single handedly continue the occupation for three reasons: 1) Since Republican backed military/energy sector/establishment has invested so much in their so called war against terrorism therefore they will not abandon it for economic reasons. 2) Republicans will use the situation to support McCain in general election. 3) Hand over two wars to Democrats with attached complex economic, political and security situations.
The Democratic Party leadership and Obama campaign have to give clear policy on both wars, because with 13% Congress approval ratings it is difficult to rule out a Republican Congress headed by a Democratic Party president. In other words despite losing their president in 08 presidential election it will allow Republicans to maintain their foreign policy in ME and Asia. It puts in perspective Bush´s support for Musharraf and Karzai in Asia and Malki in Iraq, political and constitutional unrest in Japan, Philippines and relations with Turkey.
The problem that Democratic Party faces is not only UN listing countries unfit to serve on UN Human Rights Council because of human rights violations including Pakistan but end speculations that US lawmakers like UK have not ratified International Human Rights Conventions. The challenge for Democratic party is "Democratic countries are squandering a golden opportunity to promote human rights through this important UN body," Hillel Neuer, executive director of the Geneva-based UN Watch, told reporters.
"Instead they lend international credibility to repressive governments that routinely violate the rights of their own citizens." http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?
page=200858story_8-5-2008_pg7_13.
Musharraf´s Nov 3 Martial law to stay in power resulted in chain of events that in view of independent observers is hurting America´s image in 185 million people of Pakistan struggling for restoration of independent justice, security and economic stability. Musharraf´s un-constitutional and illegal second Martial law (following his Oct. 1999 Martial law) reportedly resulted in ouster of sixty judges including Chief justice of Supreme Court, four months plus illegal house arrest of some twelve Supreme Court Judges with their families including school going children. Similarly, members of Supreme Court Bar Association including its president were also put under illegal and unlawful arrests/house arrests attracting worldwide condemnation including US Lawmakers and head of Council for Pakistan Sheila Jackson.
It has pushed Pakistan into a political and constitutional chaos. Reportedly some 96,000 protesting lawyers movement backed by country´s media, intelligentsia, civil rights activist and supported major political parties believe that Bush´s support for Musharraf is denying people of Pakistan their right to independent judiciary and running the country in accordance to the constitution, return of true democracy and rule of law.
Democratic Party has to come up with clear policy on Bush´s use of military force in war against terrorism to end political stalemate in countries like Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iraq. Main stream American media including New York Times has supported use of combination of peaceful means to end anti-state and anti-peace elements by using local justice system, intelligence system and other resources to bring to book such individuals.
In wake of reports in US and UK including ISG report al-qaida had nothing to do with Iraq and end indigenous Afghan resistance against foreign occupation, the Democratic Party has to give a clear (foreign) policy on these areas to help secure American, restore its economy that is affected by weakening dollar and cost of two wars and improve America´s image in third world including Pakistan.
In terms of strengthening of global security Democrats should give a clear policy that supports strengthening of critical infrastructures including political, economic and social in third world countries for establishing true democracies instead of dilly dallying over brute use of force, violations of US constitution, international law and Geneva convention and Republican support for dictators and extra-constitutional steps used to end third world democratic governments leading to repression, corruption and poverty.
Obama has to end both wars if he expects to provide relief at grassroots because the tax dollars will only be available for the welfare of an average American if wars will end. The world is already moving for public sector involvement to protect its people. It was US Supreme Court that passed a law in 1936 mandating welfare and protection of average America. UK's Conservative head is already talking of 'sociological' support for society. It is hoped that Obama will not squander the opportunity to change life at grassroots by adopting economic policies that help and support an average man. The first challenge for Obama to ensure economic welfare and security of people of America is the end of two wars, restore respect for country's constitution starting with Bill of Rights and upholding of International laws including Geneva Convention and UN International Human Rights Charter to win hearts and minds of rest of the world.
The NC and Indiana result has once again shown that American voters stick to their ´initial choice´. In my view, the photo- ID clause has given Hillary an undue and unconstitutional edge in Indiana. In my view, Election Commission has to iron the issue out before Nov. election because ´disenfranchising´ is not the solution to voters´ failure to get a photo-ID. Obama reiteration of ending Iraq war is a challenge that Democratic Party leadership needs to tackle in consultation with Obama campaign. The 13 % Democrat led Congress rating reflects average American´s disapproval. It should help Democratic Party to forecast its own future in which Obama may be the president but Republicans could end up controlling Congress and Senate due to Democratic Party´s foreign policy failures including ending of two wars and improving local economy.
Therefore, those Democratic Party leaders including Pelosi who want Hillary to exercise her democratic rights need to come up with clear foreign and economic policies including ending of two wars. The party leadership therefore has a set of complex challenge on its hands meriting clear policies to end domestic problems and future direction for rest of the world. It will help end apprehension that Republicans will use individuals in Asia and ME and illegal war against terrorism to their advantage before Nov. 3 general elections to win the Congressional and Senate elections and even presidential election. It will also help Democratic Party to protect American constitution, restore US image and peace in rest of the world and keep the party united.
Obama´s 14-point victory in NC shows that Hillary´s negative campaign, kitchen sink philosophy failed to change voters mind. It has ended media hype that Reverend Wright factor hurt Obama campaign and Republicans will use it to their advantage in national campaign. The CNN poll shows that 69% people disapproved use of negative campaign tactics. In wake of poll result, the Republicans will have to think twice to go negative including use of Reverend Wright issue.
In my view like Ohio, where contrary to expectations and poll results Hillary won, Hillary´s 2-point win in Indiana also doesn´t reflect true voter opinion. It is a very complex issue but here is the case. Indiana like Ohio was an ´open primary´ and pro status quo Republicans by voting in large number in Ohio succeed in keeping Hillary in the race that has come to haunt Democratic this far. Reportedly some 3% Republicans turned out to vote for Hillary in Indiana. Thereby: 1) fogging Hillary win which she won by a slim margin of 51-49%. 2) Is helping her to stay in the race. Had Hillary lost both states she would have been left with no option but to step aside?
Similarly, reports show that due to national photo ID law a large young voters including students who form backbone of Obama´s support could not vote. The mainstream media however ´focused´ or deliberately ´covered´ the issue by focusing on 98-year-old nun denied the right to vote for want of photo- ID. I think proof of establishing voter identity lies with election commission that was shifted to individual based on Supreme Court decision.
In my opinion the use of Supreme Court judgment to disenfranchise large number of voters for want of mandatory photo-Id is a ´simplistic´ interpretation of national law which has resulted in complex political development for Democratic Party and the country itself in upcoming national election if Democratic Party fails to emerge united well in time offering Republicans undue political advantage.
The ´black and white´ use of judgment to deny American nationals to exercise their right to vote is inexcusable because it is a administrative prerequisite. The election commission and state authorities should have: 1) ensured timely provision of photo-ids. 2) used other options to identify individuals. It is hoped that the issue will be resolved before Nov. election for two reasons: 1) maintain transparency and avoid Florida like standoff. 2) voters cannot be disenfranchised because US Supreme Court thinks that photo-id is more important than individual´s constitutional and democratic right to vote.
The constitutional provisions as given in The Federalist 78 (written by Alexander Hamilton one of the framers of US constitution) are superior to subsequent statutes/ judgments etc. Lawmakers make laws and courts interpret laws. The courts including US Supreme Court in accordance to basic spirit of constitution and law cannot disenfranchise voters for whatever reason including administrative reasons.
Coming on the questions of Hillary staying in the race or quitting the voices from Democratic Party leadership are not helping either. The statements of Sen. D. Feinstein and staunch Hillary supporters like McGovern who want her to quit in party interest and Nancy Pelosi´s remarks that contests can continue to compete as long as they wish to show complexity of the challenge for Democratic Party itself.
It can be argued that 13% Democrat majority Congress approval ratings on Capitol Hill reflects Democratic Party´s ´indecisiveness´ that in all probability will cost the party the upcoming Congressional and Senate elections. The assertion if true could actually reverse the standoff in both houses- Obama will be the president and houses will be controlled by the Republicans because by the end of the day Democrats have failed to end Iraq war for which America voted them to power in 2006 Congress.
There is no doubt that Democratic Party in step with democratic spirit cannot stop Hillary from continuing but has to be more active to keep the party united. In my opinion Hillary will give up after West Virginia because math and map show that she has come to the end. Cash stripped Hillary is trailing in popular vote by some 689,000 votes (Obama 15,334,000 votes, Hillary 14,645,000), pledged delegates: Obama 1856, Hillary 1698 and Contests won: Obama 32 Hillary 16.
In terms of media reports and Hillary´s own calls that she needs donations because Obama is outspending her by two to one. The difference of some 26 million dollars in released figures (released on monthly basis) by both campaigns up till Pennsylvania is self-explanatory. Obama has spent 189, 101,066 million and Hillary 163,073,472.
In terms of Will Hillary quit, keeping in view the map it can asserted that after West Virginia and Kentucky in all probability Oregon should be her Waterloo.
The Obama campaign aware of their strengths is therefore ´comfortable´ with Hillary even at this stage. Hillary on the other hand is expecting a positive response from DNC's scheduled May 31 meeting on Florida and Michigan. There are some media reports that party could seat the delegates but both states will be ´disciplined´ for jumping the primary schedule as a precedent to maintain party discipline in future. In all probability instead of spending millions on re-vote in both states delegates from both states could be equally divided between both candidates. However, Party leadership is not forthcoming on possible options at this point of time but in all probability, things will be clearer in the subject after 20th of May.
In terms of Obama´s speech, being termed as party´s presidential nomination acceptance speech his clear position on Iraq calling for an end to Iraq war is a positive development. It is hoped that his campaign will clarify the road map to end Iraq war including schedule for US troop withdrawal from Iraq.
The Obama campaign has to take clear position on Afghanistan also because Europe has openly refused to support NATO´s Afghan mission because of growing pressure on coalition govt.s´ back home over human rights violations, mass population displacement and coalition´s brute use of force in the region instead of observing mission´s original UN approved reconstruction and rehabilitation plan leading to innocent deaths.
In wake of reports that US will deploy some 7000 additional US troops in Afghanistan, the independent observers are of the view that Washington has decided to single handedly continue the occupation for three reasons: 1) Since Republican backed military/energy sector/establishment has invested so much in their so called war against terrorism therefore they will not abandon it for economic reasons. 2) Republicans will use the situation to support McCain in general election. 3) Hand over two wars to Democrats with attached complex economic, political and security situations.
The Democratic Party leadership and Obama campaign have to give clear policy on both wars, because with 13% Congress approval ratings it is difficult to rule out a Republican Congress headed by a Democratic Party president. In other words despite losing their president in 08 presidential election it will allow Republicans to maintain their foreign policy in ME and Asia. It puts in perspective Bush´s support for Musharraf and Karzai in Asia and Malki in Iraq, political and constitutional unrest in Japan, Philippines and relations with Turkey.
The problem that Democratic Party faces is not only UN listing countries unfit to serve on UN Human Rights Council because of human rights violations including Pakistan but end speculations that US lawmakers like UK have not ratified International Human Rights Conventions. The challenge for Democratic party is "Democratic countries are squandering a golden opportunity to promote human rights through this important UN body," Hillel Neuer, executive director of the Geneva-based UN Watch, told reporters.
"Instead they lend international credibility to repressive governments that routinely violate the rights of their own citizens." http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?
page=200858story_8-5-2008_pg7_13.
Musharraf´s Nov 3 Martial law to stay in power resulted in chain of events that in view of independent observers is hurting America´s image in 185 million people of Pakistan struggling for restoration of independent justice, security and economic stability. Musharraf´s un-constitutional and illegal second Martial law (following his Oct. 1999 Martial law) reportedly resulted in ouster of sixty judges including Chief justice of Supreme Court, four months plus illegal house arrest of some twelve Supreme Court Judges with their families including school going children. Similarly, members of Supreme Court Bar Association including its president were also put under illegal and unlawful arrests/house arrests attracting worldwide condemnation including US Lawmakers and head of Council for Pakistan Sheila Jackson.
It has pushed Pakistan into a political and constitutional chaos. Reportedly some 96,000 protesting lawyers movement backed by country´s media, intelligentsia, civil rights activist and supported major political parties believe that Bush´s support for Musharraf is denying people of Pakistan their right to independent judiciary and running the country in accordance to the constitution, return of true democracy and rule of law.
Democratic Party has to come up with clear policy on Bush´s use of military force in war against terrorism to end political stalemate in countries like Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iraq. Main stream American media including New York Times has supported use of combination of peaceful means to end anti-state and anti-peace elements by using local justice system, intelligence system and other resources to bring to book such individuals.
In wake of reports in US and UK including ISG report al-qaida had nothing to do with Iraq and end indigenous Afghan resistance against foreign occupation, the Democratic Party has to give a clear (foreign) policy on these areas to help secure American, restore its economy that is affected by weakening dollar and cost of two wars and improve America´s image in third world including Pakistan.
In terms of strengthening of global security Democrats should give a clear policy that supports strengthening of critical infrastructures including political, economic and social in third world countries for establishing true democracies instead of dilly dallying over brute use of force, violations of US constitution, international law and Geneva convention and Republican support for dictators and extra-constitutional steps used to end third world democratic governments leading to repression, corruption and poverty.
Obama has to end both wars if he expects to provide relief at grassroots because the tax dollars will only be available for the welfare of an average American if wars will end. The world is already moving for public sector involvement to protect its people. It was US Supreme Court that passed a law in 1936 mandating welfare and protection of average America. UK's Conservative head is already talking of 'sociological' support for society. It is hoped that Obama will not squander the opportunity to change life at grassroots by adopting economic policies that help and support an average man. The first challenge for Obama to ensure economic welfare and security of people of America is the end of two wars, restore respect for country's constitution starting with Bill of Rights and upholding of International laws including Geneva Convention and UN International Human Rights Charter to win hearts and minds of rest of the world.
The NC and Indiana result has once again shown that American voters stick to their ´initial choice´. In my view, the photo- ID clause has given Hillary an undue and unconstitutional edge in Indiana. In my view, Election Commission has to iron the issue out before Nov. election because ´disenfranchising´ is not the solution to voters´ failure to get a photo-ID. Obama reiteration of ending Iraq war is a challenge that Democratic Party leadership needs to tackle in consultation with Obama campaign. The 13 % Democrat led Congress rating reflects average American´s disapproval. It should help Democratic Party to forecast its own future in which Obama may be the president but Republicans could end up controlling Congress and Senate due to Democratic Party´s foreign policy failures including ending of two wars and improving local economy.
Therefore, those Democratic Party leaders including Pelosi who want Hillary to exercise her democratic rights need to come up with clear foreign and economic policies including ending of two wars. The party leadership therefore has a set of complex challenge on its hands meriting clear policies to end domestic problems and future direction for rest of the world. It will help end apprehension that Republicans will use individuals in Asia and ME and illegal war against terrorism to their advantage before Nov. 3 general elections to win the Congressional and Senate elections and even presidential election. It will also help Democratic Party to protect American constitution, restore US image and peace in rest of the world and keep the party united.
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