Israel's Strategic Dilemma
Ahmed Hany
April 28, 2008
The establishing fathers of Israel did not think that their brainchild state might be in a situation of a strategic dilemma. It is known that dilemma means choice between two or more bad options. They planed for the Great Israel that extends from Euphrates to Nile.
What happened since 1973 war until now eroded the dream of a Great Israel. Extremists are now trying to impose their views to abandon peace. Their ideas proved to be most disastrous for the Israeli security.
The war of 1973 proved that the Israeli army could be taken by surprise and could be defeated. It proved also that without the support of a superpower Israel could not withstand big wars. The ground-to-ground missiles made civilians exposed. Until now, defence against these rockets does not provide hundred percent guarantees. The armed militias stationed in small areas limit the ability to armies to send large troops as the threshold for maximum use is easily reached by small amounts. The result is that security may be achieved to certain amount but total security is only theoretical. Most Israeli strategic rules become invalid. It cannot give its people hundred percent protections. It cannot defeat all armies. It cannot limit casualties among its people. The American adventure in Iraq proved that it is difficult for an even superpower to occupy a medium sized country. Without the use of Mass Destructive Weapons any superpower cannot defeat many armies of medium sized countries. At the same time the use of Mass Destructive Weapons expose Israel to retaliation and may ignite a world war.
Beside the military changes there are the demographic changes in the Israeli community that makes peace is the only choice for Israel security. Immigrants to Israel were as few as 20 thousands in last years. The massive immigration of Russian Jews to Israel changed the sectarian structure among people there. There are sectarian strife between Sephardim and Ashkenazi. Anew sector called Haradim that is the religious Jews who refuse going to the army may reach 25 % of people by the year 2020. Now there are struggle between this sector and the Russian immigrants over governmental social spending. Haradim and Sephardim sectors have the highest birth rates. The Arab-Israelis or the Arabs of 1948 constitute about 20% of population. To create a Jewish state means mass transfer of the Arab-Israelis to the new proposed Palestine State. This makes Israel a Jewish community ruled by the Ashkenazi minority and opens the door for Jewish extremism to flare up and the result will be a Jewish Qaeda and Jewish Taliban. Russia will find itself in a situation that it should interfere in the internal Israeli affairs to protect its community. A new of terror between Israeli minorities may start in the Middle East. It will be very difficult for Israel to integrate in the region. The Jewish extremists refuse any compromise about Jerusalem. Without a compromise about Jerusalem there is be no peace. The reverse immigration from Israel will increase. Therefore, a Jewish state means no security for all.
Israel put its strategy that it must end any war successfully in short time. It could not continue in the attrition war after 1967 and accepted Roger´s initiative that arranged a ceasefire between Egypt and Israel. The Iraq-Iran war showed that countries in the region could stand prolonged wars. It showed also that medium sized countries in the region could bear heavy casualties without affecting their abilities to survive. Israel neither withstands prolonged wars nor bear heavy casualties. This jeopardizes the military imbalance that is in the Israeli favor now. This imbalance helps Israel only in short wars. Therefore, peace and integration in the region is a precondition for Israel for future survival.
The military, demographic and regional changes make Israeli strategists in a dilemma. To devise a sound policy they should confront the increasing extremism internally. The map of the internal political scene in Israel imposes restriction on the prime minister to save his government. The regional changes push him to compromise to save his country. He is not one of the establishing fathers and he does not have a military background like most Israeli Prime Ministers. He takes a maneuvering path in the peace negotiations and wants to extend the present situation until he finds a way out of his dilemmas.
How could the Palestinians manage to achieve their goals in a Two States solution or a One State Solution is by resolving their dilemmas. The origin of their dilemmas has different causes. To resolve their dilemmas they should talk to each other first, but this is another story.
Global changes and signs of a US-Russia compromise may give a priority for the Mideast. The group who could resolve its dilemmas will be the winner.
What happened since 1973 war until now eroded the dream of a Great Israel. Extremists are now trying to impose their views to abandon peace. Their ideas proved to be most disastrous for the Israeli security.
The war of 1973 proved that the Israeli army could be taken by surprise and could be defeated. It proved also that without the support of a superpower Israel could not withstand big wars. The ground-to-ground missiles made civilians exposed. Until now, defence against these rockets does not provide hundred percent guarantees. The armed militias stationed in small areas limit the ability to armies to send large troops as the threshold for maximum use is easily reached by small amounts. The result is that security may be achieved to certain amount but total security is only theoretical. Most Israeli strategic rules become invalid. It cannot give its people hundred percent protections. It cannot defeat all armies. It cannot limit casualties among its people. The American adventure in Iraq proved that it is difficult for an even superpower to occupy a medium sized country. Without the use of Mass Destructive Weapons any superpower cannot defeat many armies of medium sized countries. At the same time the use of Mass Destructive Weapons expose Israel to retaliation and may ignite a world war.
Beside the military changes there are the demographic changes in the Israeli community that makes peace is the only choice for Israel security. Immigrants to Israel were as few as 20 thousands in last years. The massive immigration of Russian Jews to Israel changed the sectarian structure among people there. There are sectarian strife between Sephardim and Ashkenazi. Anew sector called Haradim that is the religious Jews who refuse going to the army may reach 25 % of people by the year 2020. Now there are struggle between this sector and the Russian immigrants over governmental social spending. Haradim and Sephardim sectors have the highest birth rates. The Arab-Israelis or the Arabs of 1948 constitute about 20% of population. To create a Jewish state means mass transfer of the Arab-Israelis to the new proposed Palestine State. This makes Israel a Jewish community ruled by the Ashkenazi minority and opens the door for Jewish extremism to flare up and the result will be a Jewish Qaeda and Jewish Taliban. Russia will find itself in a situation that it should interfere in the internal Israeli affairs to protect its community. A new of terror between Israeli minorities may start in the Middle East. It will be very difficult for Israel to integrate in the region. The Jewish extremists refuse any compromise about Jerusalem. Without a compromise about Jerusalem there is be no peace. The reverse immigration from Israel will increase. Therefore, a Jewish state means no security for all.
Israel put its strategy that it must end any war successfully in short time. It could not continue in the attrition war after 1967 and accepted Roger´s initiative that arranged a ceasefire between Egypt and Israel. The Iraq-Iran war showed that countries in the region could stand prolonged wars. It showed also that medium sized countries in the region could bear heavy casualties without affecting their abilities to survive. Israel neither withstands prolonged wars nor bear heavy casualties. This jeopardizes the military imbalance that is in the Israeli favor now. This imbalance helps Israel only in short wars. Therefore, peace and integration in the region is a precondition for Israel for future survival.
The military, demographic and regional changes make Israeli strategists in a dilemma. To devise a sound policy they should confront the increasing extremism internally. The map of the internal political scene in Israel imposes restriction on the prime minister to save his government. The regional changes push him to compromise to save his country. He is not one of the establishing fathers and he does not have a military background like most Israeli Prime Ministers. He takes a maneuvering path in the peace negotiations and wants to extend the present situation until he finds a way out of his dilemmas.
How could the Palestinians manage to achieve their goals in a Two States solution or a One State Solution is by resolving their dilemmas. The origin of their dilemmas has different causes. To resolve their dilemmas they should talk to each other first, but this is another story.
Global changes and signs of a US-Russia compromise may give a priority for the Mideast. The group who could resolve its dilemmas will be the winner.
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