Pennsylvania Vote: Obama will emerge stronger
Rizwan Ghani
April 22, 2008
Political pundits are tight lipped over Hillary´s fate as Pennsylvanians head for the vote. It is not easy to predict the results as Obama and Hillary woo some 12 million voters with 158 delegates up for grab. There are 4 million registered Democratic Party voters in the state.
Hillary is trailing Obama. Obama has won 1645, Hillary 1507. Obama has won more contests than Hillary. Hillary is trailing Obama by 700,000 popular votes. Hillary campaign aims to erode ten percent of the popular vote to convince super delegates that she is electable. The Obama supporters point to math´s claiming that Hillary is harming the party by staying in the election because statistics show that she has lost the party´s presidential nomination race. Hillary campaign is now expected to win 50 % of delegates to convince her party to stay in the race.It has left cash deficient Hillary campaign desperate to secure a political victory in Pennsylvania.
In all probability, it explains Hillary camp´s controversial campaign focusing on non-issues, which Obama called ´negative attacks´ and ´old politics´. He used Hillary ´kitchen sink´ (throw many things at your opponent hoping most to stick) tactics to rally support. America should support him to get rid of negative tactics undermining American politics.
Pennsylvania is the sixth largest state of America and 17th largest economy of the world. The blue-collar state is facing serious employment problems. The struggling manufacturing sector and dying steel industry is making it hard generate jobs.
It is failure of Obama and Hillary to come up with a ground-breaking solutions to end unemployment and restore state´s manufacturing sector and steel industry that is keeping some 10 percent of the Pennsylvanian voters undecided. It can therefore be augured in absence of real solution to country´s economic problems remaining campaigns will go dirtier because campaign planners will focus on opponent´s personality and character. If true, it could be catastrophic for the Democratic Party itself.
The Democratic Party leadership has to therefore convince the contesting candidates to stay positive in party interest. History shows that Nixon won the 1968 presidential elections because Humphrey, Democratic Party presidential nominee was handed over the party nomination by the Democratic Party leadership. The party leadership rejected the popular vote supporting moderate anti-Vietnam war movement leaders McCarthy and Robert Kennedy. The decision at Democratic Party´s Chicago Convention in 1968 led to riots in which some 15,000 party workers protested against Humphrey´s nomination. The decision divided the party to the ultimately benefit of Nixon.
It is therefore hoped that Democratic Party leadership will come up with a practical economic plan to successfully challenge the Republican´s in upcoming national election. Democrats are lucky that McCain campaign has so far failed to cobble an economic plan, which coupled with continuation of Obama-Hillary race would have left them in deep trouble.
Finally, if I were to make a calculated guess based on latest statistics showing Hillary leading Obama by 4-5 points. In all probability, Obama will emerge stronger by maintaining his position in terms of popular vote and pledged delegate lead, which in turn should help him win support of more Super Delegates. Hillary on the other hand may not be able to secure 79 pledged delegates.
Hillary is trailing Obama. Obama has won 1645, Hillary 1507. Obama has won more contests than Hillary. Hillary is trailing Obama by 700,000 popular votes. Hillary campaign aims to erode ten percent of the popular vote to convince super delegates that she is electable. The Obama supporters point to math´s claiming that Hillary is harming the party by staying in the election because statistics show that she has lost the party´s presidential nomination race. Hillary campaign is now expected to win 50 % of delegates to convince her party to stay in the race.It has left cash deficient Hillary campaign desperate to secure a political victory in Pennsylvania.
In all probability, it explains Hillary camp´s controversial campaign focusing on non-issues, which Obama called ´negative attacks´ and ´old politics´. He used Hillary ´kitchen sink´ (throw many things at your opponent hoping most to stick) tactics to rally support. America should support him to get rid of negative tactics undermining American politics.
Pennsylvania is the sixth largest state of America and 17th largest economy of the world. The blue-collar state is facing serious employment problems. The struggling manufacturing sector and dying steel industry is making it hard generate jobs.
It is failure of Obama and Hillary to come up with a ground-breaking solutions to end unemployment and restore state´s manufacturing sector and steel industry that is keeping some 10 percent of the Pennsylvanian voters undecided. It can therefore be augured in absence of real solution to country´s economic problems remaining campaigns will go dirtier because campaign planners will focus on opponent´s personality and character. If true, it could be catastrophic for the Democratic Party itself.
The Democratic Party leadership has to therefore convince the contesting candidates to stay positive in party interest. History shows that Nixon won the 1968 presidential elections because Humphrey, Democratic Party presidential nominee was handed over the party nomination by the Democratic Party leadership. The party leadership rejected the popular vote supporting moderate anti-Vietnam war movement leaders McCarthy and Robert Kennedy. The decision at Democratic Party´s Chicago Convention in 1968 led to riots in which some 15,000 party workers protested against Humphrey´s nomination. The decision divided the party to the ultimately benefit of Nixon.
It is therefore hoped that Democratic Party leadership will come up with a practical economic plan to successfully challenge the Republican´s in upcoming national election. Democrats are lucky that McCain campaign has so far failed to cobble an economic plan, which coupled with continuation of Obama-Hillary race would have left them in deep trouble.
Finally, if I were to make a calculated guess based on latest statistics showing Hillary leading Obama by 4-5 points. In all probability, Obama will emerge stronger by maintaining his position in terms of popular vote and pledged delegate lead, which in turn should help him win support of more Super Delegates. Hillary on the other hand may not be able to secure 79 pledged delegates.
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