Nepal's CA election result signify wide victory for Maoists
Surya B. Prasai
April 15, 2008
Nepal´s Maoists have so far scored more than a century in direct representational seats in Nepal´s recently held CA Poll, a maverick test score going by any world sport.
What is the significance of this all where some are seen victorious while others reeling in defeat? If the trend continues, it is to be expected that the Maoists will emerge as a single majority party able to run Singha Durbar, the official seat of Nepali governance, with little coalition support. The vote counting results of 240 constituencies set aside for direct election are being beamed into Nepali homes through various communications mediums, the results of for 335 Proportional Representation (PR) seats will also be soon available for counting. The trend of CPN-M´s victory is likely to continue unabated in both counts leading to a total of 601 seats in Nepal´s new Constituent Assembly. While the Nepali Congress and the UML are trailing behind, the new Terai party, Madhesi Janadhikar Forum (MJF) and Terai Madhes Loktantrik Party (TMLP) have shown promises of doing better. Nepal Workers and Peasants Party (NWPP) have won two seats while People's Front and Rajendra Mahato-led Nepal Sadbhavana Party (NSP) have won one seat each. Only one independent candidate Babban Singh has won in a Rautahat constituency.
In the past 12 years of Nepali existence, of which 10 years were spent fighting a civil conflict for the inclusive democratic right of all Nepalis, the Maoists continuing electoral sweep in Nepal´s first major democratic exercise after 1999 is considered a vote for positive political change and reform, a vote for a new Nepali equality, and a vote for a New Nepali Democracy, a concept that Prachanda has been talking incessantly for the past four years, but was ridiculed till now by powerful Nepali media houses. In fact, Madhav Kumar Nepal even dubbed Prachanda a president of the wall, an imagery he drew on CPN-UML´s recent over-confidence in going to the polls alone, predicting an all round victory for his party, which did not materialize.
Thus, with the Maoists likely to clinch a clear cut majority, how does the new Nepal democracy differ from the Old Nepali politics? The Maoists have already assured that they will deliver on all their promises, work with all parties, new and old, though this will have to be a smart Singapore type partnership in progress if Nepali democracy has to have any meaning. It is being rumored that Maoists are now aiming for Singapore or Thai democratic model seeking common unity in purpose.
They have also assured both the Nepali and international community that they will not embark on any radical system changes without getting the inclusive opinion of all to propel a stable democratic order forward in Nepal. This all will happen slowly over time including consulting the international community. So, one should not expect radical changes in the next few months.
One of Nepal´s sharpest and most blunt political thinkers Prof Lokraj Baral has stated this week that the CA Poll results indicate Nepali people's aspiration for massive change in the existing political set up. He feels that people might have been attracted to the Maoists because they carried forward an attractive agenda of inclusive democracy, federalism, republic and socio-economic transformation. Dr. Baral threw a satire at Nepali political pundits and big media house parochialism by stating that the ´so called experts´ had failed to predict the outcome of the CA Poll results miserably, adding that such a failure is common in many countries in South Asia and the developing world, where both politicians and analysts get lured by political emotions and biases that ignore the ground reality of people´s quest for change. Also, Nepal´s youth are going through a rapid change scenario in accepting global democratic cultural norms, something which cannot be reversed. The Maoists became a voice and champion of such change, in essence, radically altering the parameters of the Nepali political state by mixing the old with the new.
Currently, various senior NC sources acknowledge they failed to both muster and master the ´republican´ agenda in endorsing the Maoists agenda blindly not knowing that it could have just been a placebo pill or a political trick to rob them off their own former BPist line of thinking. The Maoists in essence by stating the word ´republican´ appeared to be hinting at more nationalistic thinking in Nepali politics. The victory of Narahari Acharya a staunch critic of Koirala is one proof that an NC Republican can win in isolation but then with no followers in tow, the other NC bigwig Ram Chandra Poudyal too has won, but in recent days he has dumped his Republican line for the BPist national reconciliation philosophy. Thus, the electoral defeat of Sujata Koirala, Sushil Koirala, Krishna Prasad Shitaula, Govinda Raj Joshi, you name it, all the big NC roller coaster riders, speak much about the current weaknesses in NC agenda setting. It is little wonder then, that Girija Prasad Koirala as PM and still head of the former Seven Party Alliance had much criticism to make about the NC´s own 32 page election manifesto. Koirala had stated many times to his followers, "Preaching the word democracy alone is not enough, you have to make the Nepali people accept that we offer a better variety of Nepali freedom than the rest. You have to prove that through your genuine actions." The Maoists who always had a close ear to Baluwatar caught on to this NC slogan a few months back, knowing that if they convincingly used a carrot and stick approach, the poor people would be trapped into a republican mood swing, they would emerge the victors by promising true democracy for the Nepali people. They only propelled themselves as "die-hard republicans" to differentiate themselves from the NC´s mixed democratic cookie bag approach. Both Prachanda and Baburam proved themselves right in gauging the public mood swing this time, knowing that the people wanted fresh political change from a temporary alliance, but still wanted to retain the Nepali people´s unique culture, values and traditions.
In fact, leading NC intellectuals, professors, politicians and economists had been openly discussing in various Kathmandu Garden restaurant venues recently, particularly in the Durbar Marg area, that given the nepotism and open corruption they were witnessing among some in the past two years of the Seven party rule, including among their own close friends, it would not be difficult to accord the Maoists and the Terai parties an easy political walkover. This stark prediction came true, but why did the NC bigwigs not accept such feelings earlier? This will remain a big NC mystery forever.
Besides, new voter facts are also quickly emerging. For instance, the average Nepali woman had been secretly lobbying through neighborhood committees to mobilize their eligible voting kids and husbands to vote for the Maoists, since they wanted to see a distinct change in life style, to be able to witness true democracy. It seemed the Post Jan Andolan-2 period for Nepali women had meant endless woes, waiting in long ques for kerosene and water, unbearable inflation, endless bundhs and educational uncertainty for the children for weeks on ends due to prolonged strikes. The distribution of democratic gains was not as equitable as in America, Japan or the UK. There was also a general lack of societal discipline which even saw poor Nepali women and young girls from rural families being sold overland due to exacerbating poverty. This hurt the rural Nepali psyche. Many poor Nepali matriarchal households also felt the pinch of rising economic woes, particularly unchecked inflation.
Two other predictions were flouted by the Maoists themselves which the big media houses scornfully laughed at. The Maoists had warned four months back that Nepal might soon see an authoritarian takeover from some within the Seven Party Alliance, what they termed ingeniously as a democratic coup led by a Nepali ´woman´ politician. Fortunately their warning stopped this from happening. Secondly, Prachanda had predicted that Nepal could see the emergence of one powerful leader in the near future who would have the inborn Machiavellian traits of Janga Bahadur Rana combined with the peaceful kind strength of a patient Buddha, someone who could protect the country´s national interests, democratic growth, territorial integrity, national sovereignty, and mould the old cultural values with new social transformation. Was he hinting at someone? This queston will be answered in time, as the Maoists patiently contemplate forming a new all inclusive Nepali government well steeped in democracy, with honest cabinet ministers serving the people, its doors wide open for the people to express their views on how governance should effectively reach the rural corners, and what steps they should take to preserve true Nepali democratic values born from within. They also will have to adjust at the same time to the young Nepali voters who were their voting bank, respond to them with globalized freedom in short. In other words, Nepal´s Maoists will have to learn how to use their current political gains for Nepal´s long term democratic stability, peace, prosperity and inclusive opportunity for all Nepalis to find an equal space to live free and independent lives without any fear from any quarter and peace among all. In the end, this was ultimately a vote for Nepali peace, not just democracy and Nepal´s adherence to the global freedom agenda.
What is the significance of this all where some are seen victorious while others reeling in defeat? If the trend continues, it is to be expected that the Maoists will emerge as a single majority party able to run Singha Durbar, the official seat of Nepali governance, with little coalition support. The vote counting results of 240 constituencies set aside for direct election are being beamed into Nepali homes through various communications mediums, the results of for 335 Proportional Representation (PR) seats will also be soon available for counting. The trend of CPN-M´s victory is likely to continue unabated in both counts leading to a total of 601 seats in Nepal´s new Constituent Assembly. While the Nepali Congress and the UML are trailing behind, the new Terai party, Madhesi Janadhikar Forum (MJF) and Terai Madhes Loktantrik Party (TMLP) have shown promises of doing better. Nepal Workers and Peasants Party (NWPP) have won two seats while People's Front and Rajendra Mahato-led Nepal Sadbhavana Party (NSP) have won one seat each. Only one independent candidate Babban Singh has won in a Rautahat constituency.
In the past 12 years of Nepali existence, of which 10 years were spent fighting a civil conflict for the inclusive democratic right of all Nepalis, the Maoists continuing electoral sweep in Nepal´s first major democratic exercise after 1999 is considered a vote for positive political change and reform, a vote for a new Nepali equality, and a vote for a New Nepali Democracy, a concept that Prachanda has been talking incessantly for the past four years, but was ridiculed till now by powerful Nepali media houses. In fact, Madhav Kumar Nepal even dubbed Prachanda a president of the wall, an imagery he drew on CPN-UML´s recent over-confidence in going to the polls alone, predicting an all round victory for his party, which did not materialize.
Thus, with the Maoists likely to clinch a clear cut majority, how does the new Nepal democracy differ from the Old Nepali politics? The Maoists have already assured that they will deliver on all their promises, work with all parties, new and old, though this will have to be a smart Singapore type partnership in progress if Nepali democracy has to have any meaning. It is being rumored that Maoists are now aiming for Singapore or Thai democratic model seeking common unity in purpose.
They have also assured both the Nepali and international community that they will not embark on any radical system changes without getting the inclusive opinion of all to propel a stable democratic order forward in Nepal. This all will happen slowly over time including consulting the international community. So, one should not expect radical changes in the next few months.
One of Nepal´s sharpest and most blunt political thinkers Prof Lokraj Baral has stated this week that the CA Poll results indicate Nepali people's aspiration for massive change in the existing political set up. He feels that people might have been attracted to the Maoists because they carried forward an attractive agenda of inclusive democracy, federalism, republic and socio-economic transformation. Dr. Baral threw a satire at Nepali political pundits and big media house parochialism by stating that the ´so called experts´ had failed to predict the outcome of the CA Poll results miserably, adding that such a failure is common in many countries in South Asia and the developing world, where both politicians and analysts get lured by political emotions and biases that ignore the ground reality of people´s quest for change. Also, Nepal´s youth are going through a rapid change scenario in accepting global democratic cultural norms, something which cannot be reversed. The Maoists became a voice and champion of such change, in essence, radically altering the parameters of the Nepali political state by mixing the old with the new.
Currently, various senior NC sources acknowledge they failed to both muster and master the ´republican´ agenda in endorsing the Maoists agenda blindly not knowing that it could have just been a placebo pill or a political trick to rob them off their own former BPist line of thinking. The Maoists in essence by stating the word ´republican´ appeared to be hinting at more nationalistic thinking in Nepali politics. The victory of Narahari Acharya a staunch critic of Koirala is one proof that an NC Republican can win in isolation but then with no followers in tow, the other NC bigwig Ram Chandra Poudyal too has won, but in recent days he has dumped his Republican line for the BPist national reconciliation philosophy. Thus, the electoral defeat of Sujata Koirala, Sushil Koirala, Krishna Prasad Shitaula, Govinda Raj Joshi, you name it, all the big NC roller coaster riders, speak much about the current weaknesses in NC agenda setting. It is little wonder then, that Girija Prasad Koirala as PM and still head of the former Seven Party Alliance had much criticism to make about the NC´s own 32 page election manifesto. Koirala had stated many times to his followers, "Preaching the word democracy alone is not enough, you have to make the Nepali people accept that we offer a better variety of Nepali freedom than the rest. You have to prove that through your genuine actions." The Maoists who always had a close ear to Baluwatar caught on to this NC slogan a few months back, knowing that if they convincingly used a carrot and stick approach, the poor people would be trapped into a republican mood swing, they would emerge the victors by promising true democracy for the Nepali people. They only propelled themselves as "die-hard republicans" to differentiate themselves from the NC´s mixed democratic cookie bag approach. Both Prachanda and Baburam proved themselves right in gauging the public mood swing this time, knowing that the people wanted fresh political change from a temporary alliance, but still wanted to retain the Nepali people´s unique culture, values and traditions.
In fact, leading NC intellectuals, professors, politicians and economists had been openly discussing in various Kathmandu Garden restaurant venues recently, particularly in the Durbar Marg area, that given the nepotism and open corruption they were witnessing among some in the past two years of the Seven party rule, including among their own close friends, it would not be difficult to accord the Maoists and the Terai parties an easy political walkover. This stark prediction came true, but why did the NC bigwigs not accept such feelings earlier? This will remain a big NC mystery forever.
Besides, new voter facts are also quickly emerging. For instance, the average Nepali woman had been secretly lobbying through neighborhood committees to mobilize their eligible voting kids and husbands to vote for the Maoists, since they wanted to see a distinct change in life style, to be able to witness true democracy. It seemed the Post Jan Andolan-2 period for Nepali women had meant endless woes, waiting in long ques for kerosene and water, unbearable inflation, endless bundhs and educational uncertainty for the children for weeks on ends due to prolonged strikes. The distribution of democratic gains was not as equitable as in America, Japan or the UK. There was also a general lack of societal discipline which even saw poor Nepali women and young girls from rural families being sold overland due to exacerbating poverty. This hurt the rural Nepali psyche. Many poor Nepali matriarchal households also felt the pinch of rising economic woes, particularly unchecked inflation.
Two other predictions were flouted by the Maoists themselves which the big media houses scornfully laughed at. The Maoists had warned four months back that Nepal might soon see an authoritarian takeover from some within the Seven Party Alliance, what they termed ingeniously as a democratic coup led by a Nepali ´woman´ politician. Fortunately their warning stopped this from happening. Secondly, Prachanda had predicted that Nepal could see the emergence of one powerful leader in the near future who would have the inborn Machiavellian traits of Janga Bahadur Rana combined with the peaceful kind strength of a patient Buddha, someone who could protect the country´s national interests, democratic growth, territorial integrity, national sovereignty, and mould the old cultural values with new social transformation. Was he hinting at someone? This queston will be answered in time, as the Maoists patiently contemplate forming a new all inclusive Nepali government well steeped in democracy, with honest cabinet ministers serving the people, its doors wide open for the people to express their views on how governance should effectively reach the rural corners, and what steps they should take to preserve true Nepali democratic values born from within. They also will have to adjust at the same time to the young Nepali voters who were their voting bank, respond to them with globalized freedom in short. In other words, Nepal´s Maoists will have to learn how to use their current political gains for Nepal´s long term democratic stability, peace, prosperity and inclusive opportunity for all Nepalis to find an equal space to live free and independent lives without any fear from any quarter and peace among all. In the end, this was ultimately a vote for Nepali peace, not just democracy and Nepal´s adherence to the global freedom agenda.
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