Nepal´s Constituent Assembly results show Maoist lead

Surya B. Prasai
So far, Nepal´s Constituent Assembly Poll is proving a bag full of surprises with the Nepal Communist Party – Maoist maintaining a wide lead over its nearest rivals, the Nepali Congress and the Nepal Communist Party Marxist-Lenninist(UML).

In fact the defeat has been unbearable for some such as UML General Secretary Madhav Kumar Nepal, who promptly tendered in his resignation after losing to a little known Maoist rival in Koteswore´s Constituency No. 2, where he has been residing for over 18 years. Nepal lost to CPN-Maoist´s Jhakku Prasad Subedi by 1534 votes. Subedi had secured 13858 votes and was little known in the area before the CA Poll.

According to sources close to the UML leader, such as Raghuji Pant, who also lost his seat in Lalitpur to the Maoists, the disgraceful defeat is alluded to UML spending too much time battling NC and the Maoists and not being able to carve an ideological populist niche from within, unlike 1999 when it swept all seven constituency seats in Kathmandu. He also felt UML´s parliamentary performance was very poor in recent times. Madhav Kumar Nepal headed UML for nearly 15 years towing a center left ideological baggage which was considered highly populist, though he personally considered himself a strong champion of late Chinese leader Deng Xiao Ping´s four pillar theory which is credited for China´s post-modern economic liberalization and growth. In recent years UML Chief Nepal had been close to Indian leftist parties sharing a similar ideological outlook.

Maoist chairman, Prachanda won from Kathmandu´s hotly contested Constituency NO. 10. He managed to secure 20,499 votes, almost double his closest rival Rajendra Kumar K.C of NC who only got 11,103 votes. UML´s Sanu Kumar Shrestha, managed to garner only 6,216 votes. Similarly, another the Maoist number two leader Dr Baburam Bhattarai has won the election from Gorkha constituency-2 securing 35119 votes, the biggest score of individual candidates so far, defeating his closest rival Chandra Prasad Neupane of Nepali Congress by a wide margin of over 30,000 votes. Neupane is Bhattarai's maternal uncle.

Prachanda symbolically chose Kathmandu´s Birendra International Convention Center to give his modest victory speech avoiding any ideological rhetoric or references to monarchy, rather opting for a pacifying and reconciliatory message which some of his close confidantes like Dr. Babu Ram Bhattarai might term in a Hegelian sense a 'mix of the old with the new'. Prachanda stated in general, " We will work together with not only the seven parties but also the new parties that will be established through this election and the old parties in existence in the forthcoming constitution making process. All eyes are upon us. This is a positive challenge for us. I want to clarify that the path of cooperation that we adopted since the 12-point agreement will continue. For the international community and especially our neighbors India and China, I want to say that our party wants good relations with all of them and is willing to work together on development cooperation and peace process. Our commitment on multi party democracy has been expressed through this election as well. I have taken this victory as the people's mandate to us to consolidate lasting peace. We will remain honest to that mandate and stick on with the multi-democratic tradition"

Prachanda also emphasized sticking to the 12 point peace accord, which however, was considered by some, earlier, as a harbinger to Maoists getting full democratic legitimacy. Before forming a government or even nominating any cabinet ministers, it is expected that Prachanda in his usual pragmatic style will consult all political parties and leaders. He is expected to induct, young, educated, dynamic people. Some NC or former old parties representatives joining such a government cannot be entirely ruled out if the Maoists do not get an absolute majority in the end.

Meanwhile former U.S. President Carter speaking at a press conference in Kathmandu after successfully monitoring the elections, felt that the Maoists victory should be accepted by all, should they be declared the winners. Carter was of the belief that the polls were a role model for other developing countries wanting to pursue elections, and hinted that that his team was visibly impressed with the Nepali people´s discipline, patience, courage and democratic feelings. The co-founder of the Carter Center further stated that this election was important to "end the 12-years-long conflict, establish republican set up in Nepal and provide a new opportunity to the marginalized community", while congratulating the enthusiasm and determination of Nepal´s people to help consolidate peace and democracy by participating in the election of a body that will write a new constitution. Carter further stated, "We encourage all Nepalis to remain actively involved in the drafting of the constitution to ensure that the process is transparent, accountable and inclusive."


In further signs of a Nepali Congress slide in the CA Poll, Khum Bahadur Khadka has lost heavily to Indrajit Tharu, a little known Maoist activist in the mid-Western region in Dang´s Constituency -1. Tharu won 18091 to Khadka 10170. In Lalitpur, the Maoists have swept all three constituencies with Barshan Man Pun "Ananta" , the former Kathmandu valley commander, winning Lalitpur-1 by defeating Udaya Shamsher Rana of Nepali Congress. With this, the Maoists have bagged 27 seats and lead in 60 other constituencies for direct elections to the 240 seats. Similarly Krishna Bahadur Mahara has won from Dang 3 after fighting a tense battle with NC. The soft spoken former Rolpa school teacher and two time parliamentarian won by securing 20,492 votes, adding to the winning streak of his party across the country. His closest contender in the constituency Anita Devkota of Nepali Congress managed to garner 7,818 votes.

Earlier, Mahara´s close friend Dev Gurung had already won from Manang with zero contestation. Similarly Hisila Yami, another Maoist minister in the Koirala cabinet, won from Kathmandu constituency-7 and the Maoists have now taken lead in the four remaining constituencies in Dang as well. Maoist contenders Ram Bahadur Thapa (Badal) is also expecting to win in Chitwan-2. The Maoists have also registered victory in Dhanukuta constituency-2 and Bardiya constituency-1.

The Maoists have even defeated Rastriya Janashakti Party (RJP) chairman Surya Bahadur Thapa and Bamdev Gautam of UML respectively in Dhankuta-2 and Bardiya-1 respectively. Both were heavyweight participants. Maoist candidate Hari Raj Limbu won in Dhankuta -2 with 12099 votes beating his nearest rival Dharma Raj Poudel of UML, who got 11338 votes. RJP chairman and former Prime Minister Surya Bahadur Thapa ended up in third position with 5332 votes. In Bardiya-1 CPN-M's Sarala Regmi beat senior UML leader Bamdev Gautam. Final results in Bardiya-1 was not announced formally till press time (12:30 pm). Regmi had taken lead right from the start. Maoist candidates are ahead of their competitors in three other constituencies in the Bardiya. Meanwhile, Nepali Congress candidate Suprabha Ghimire has won in Kathmandu-4. She bagged 13451 votes to UML candidate Bidhya Bhandari's 9842 votes. Pawan Man Shrestha of CPN-M.

Among the smaller parties Nepal Workers and Peasants Party has had to contend with only 2 seats from Bhaktapur, the strong hold of its leader Narayan Man Bijukche, an active farmer, community mobilizer and writer and social worker by profession.

There has been no additional reaction from the Western countries to the continuing Maoist positive show in the polls, except that the EU observers believe it had met international polling standards and hope that the Nepali people would accept the new democratic mandate once the results were finally declared. India´s External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee has congratulated the Nepali people for participating in a democratic and historic leap forward promising significant political reforms, including working towards a new democratic constitution. Similar messages are being expected in the next few days from Asian and Western countries.

Earlier, the US embassy in Kathmandu has congratulated the Nepali people for the successful election to the constituent assembly stating, "After nearly a decade since the last general election and more than half a century of demanding the opportunity to elect representatives to draft a constitution, the voters have spoken." An official reaction from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China has similarly stated that China is delighted to know that that the Nepali CA Poll was held peacefully and smoothly.
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Surya B. Prasai

American Chronicle Biography

Surya B. Prasai
Global Resource Expert - international strategic communications, media and international development.
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From M.David Posner, Editorial Coordinator of the American Chronicle, National Media Network of American Writers and Journalists, Hollywood, Los Angeles,
" Surya B. Prasai is a globally accomplished international strategic communications, media and international development resource expert and serves as Regional Contributor to the American Chronicle from Maryland. Surya is also a popular Google Global Commentator and Discussant on Global Climate Change, Water, and Bio-diversity and has written many important pieces with global policy ramifications on HIV/AIDS impact mitigation, Global Climate Change, halting illegal labor immigration, U.S. and Asia-Pacific immigration reforms and stopping global trafficking of women and young children. Surya´s writings are usually marked with in-depth understanding on the above issues and the global compact required for developing further progress. He is noted for his unique, concise and innovative thinking on international affairs!"
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As an influential top level Asian media commentator, Surya B. Prasai´s articles have appeared regularly in a host of important American and Asia-Pacific media networks. He has contributed in the past three decades in The Bangkok Post (Guest Columnist), The Nation, Thailand (Guest Editor), The Independent, The Far Eastern Economic Review, The Hindustan Times (Culture and Tourism contributor), The Rising Nepal, The Kathmandu Post, The Peoples Review, The Everest Herald, The Commoner (Tourism and Culture Editor), ILO News Features, and UNICEF Staff News (New York) as a Middle East and North Africa Regional Reporter.
As an acknowledged freelance international strategic thinker and global development resource expert, Surya has worked with German Technical Cooperation (GTZ), BMZ, Germany, UNICEF, ILO, UNDP, Family Health International (USAID/Policy project), the African Comprehensive Partnership (Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, Merck Co. and Botswana Government) respectively in Botswana, Nepal, Thailand, India and Sudan.
He can be contacted at: just_1_idea@hotmail.com