Fuzzy Logic & The Avian Flu. Or, Murder Most Fowl! A study in the language of science
Frank A. Hilario
February 11, 2006
(Last updated 9 May 2009) THIS IS NO JOKE. D Butler did it photo shows a Google map of part of Asia where most of the 1800 outbreaks of avian flu (dots in color) occurred from 2004 to 2005 as plotted by Declan Butler of Nature. News of 10 February: From Google News (34,700 pages for "bird flu"), we learn that Iraq, China, Indonesia, Nigeria, Romania, Greece, Turkey, Azerbaijan, Vietnam have cases of bird flu and are scaring people. The Philippines (not shown in the photo is the only Asian country reported free from bird flu. China is the home of the bird flu (New Scientist), as a study confirmed that the H5N1 virus has been circulating in China for a decade, and there are human cases where there have been no reported poultry cases. Even the United States are preparing for a bird flu pandemic. Harvard University in Massachusetts has tested its īWhat Ifī emergency management system in case of a flu pandemic.
Believe the statistics from the experts: 61 million chickens killed by a single poultry disease, the avian flu, that is to say, 11 million birds in the Netherlands in February 2003 and 50 million birds in North Korea in March 2005. This disease is no respecter of politics. Western and Eastern experts reaching the same conclusions, the 61 million chickens from that democratic country and that communist country were īmass-culled euphemism for their mass-killing or massacre they were sacrificed en masse with no time to lose without doubt and without mercy. Murder most fowl! It had to be. They were dangerous to other animals. The chickens were also dangerous to humans, as the virus is contagious and so virulent that once it attaches itself to people, it could be fatal.
The data I cited above are statistics from the science magazine Nature. Now, statistics from me: If a bird is worth $2, that was $122 million gone with the wind. If you gave away $60 every 60 seconds, it would take you 1,412 days or almost 4 years of non-stop charity before you gave away the last $60. Thatīs how much money that went thataway. No joke.
The Mayo Clinic reports that since 2003, in fact, hundreds of millions of birds have died this is ecologically and economically devastating. But after all, thatīs only money. Thatīs only birds. Thatīs not even half the story. Nature also reports that in 1918, the Spanish Flu, caused by the same influenza virus, killed more than 40 million people. In 1957, the Asian Flu (caused by the H2N2 virus) killed 100,000 people. In 1968, the Hong Kong Flu caused by the H3N2 virus killed 700,000 people. More people are dying because the virus is mutating.
Now, the World Health Organization is warning the world that the bird flu virus might spark a pandemic of flu that could kill millions of people (my italics). In November 2004, the WHO had warned that the world was unprepared for such a worldwide epidemic (Nature).
So, if we canīt solve the problem of the bird flu worldwide, the jokeīs on us.
Thereīs a lesson or two there somewhere. Letīs see if we can find them.
The uncertainty amidst the uncertainty
And the funny thing about all that is? The scientific befuddlement. The experts are all confused about it all.
Let me explain. First, I say that for two reasons:
(1)The experts are puzzled about how to stop the avian flu pandemic if it comes. If they thought they knew exactly, they wouldnīt worry us to death.
(2)I suspect that the experts are clueless about the deeper cause of it, thatīs why they donīt know how to stop it.
In 1999, two drugs, Relenza and Tamiflu, were licensed in the US and Europe. So we have two drugs for people against the bird flu disease, but the experts are befuddled about them. Consider this: In August 2005, the British magazine Lancet came out with a report on Relenza and Tamiflu saying that īRelenza is at least as effective as Tamiflu but has fewer side effects and there is no evidence of resistance to Relenza, compared with resistance levels of up to 18% in those taking Tamiflu. The researchers recommend stockpiling both.ī Along with this, US President George W Bush launches a $7.1 billion strategy to double the worldīs vaccine-making capability.
Do you see the fuzzy logic? To sort things out based on the above statement with single quotes, we can see that: (a) In 82% of people cases, Tamiflu is effective against the bird flu; in contrast, in 100% of people cases, Relenza is effective. One point for Relenza. Ergo, it is incorrect to say that Relenza is as effective in fact, it is more effective. (b) Relenza has fewer side effects; Tamiflu has more. Another point for Relenza. (c) Therefore, Relenza is much better than Tamiflu. Now, it bemuses me that they are giving the recommendation to stockpile both drugs, even as they say that one has been shown by scientific study to be much better than the other.
But because the tangled recommendation was in fact, given, it suggests very strongly to me that the researchers are not too sure of their findings. If poorly reasoned, the faulty logic I cannot forgive, but I can understand: It is very expensive to conduct extensive tests involving thousands of people, assuming volunteers that many can be found.
Meanwhile, a French vaccine maker has developed a flu vaccine that promotes an immune system in the birds, but this needs further testing.
In any case, for the good of us all, when the time comes, the drugs better work!
One good news above all the bad news is that no human cases of bird flu have ever been linked to eating poultry. That is because heat destroys avian viruses.
And now, the cause that causes
The disease is alternately called the avian flu, bird flu (the most common name), avian influenza, influenza A, influenza B, influenza C. Actually, A, B & C are types. There are subtypes: H1N1, H1N2, H1N3, H2N2, H3N2, H3N8, H5N1, H7N3, H7N7. The H1N1 was the cause of the Spanish Flu that killed 40 million people. The H2N2 (Asian Flu) killed 100,000 in 1957. The H5N1 is the one that is known to mutate quickly, the candidate virus for a flu pandemic. This is known as the killer virus, the strain of bird flu that first broke out in Hong Kong in 1997 and has spread to China, Korea and Southeast Asia. The virus can ījumpī directly from birds to people.
In July 2005, the 3-day WHO conference in Malaysia concluded that $150 million was needed to fight the spread of the disease in people and another $100 million to stop the spread in animals in Asia. They are referring mostly to expenses for vaccines.
But, in fact, the vaccines are the least of our worries.
At least, thatīs my worry. You see, the way I see it, the influenza virus that the scientists say is the cause of the avian flu is the caused cause; that is to say, there is a cause that causes the virus to cause the flu. If they find the cause that causes, then we donīt have to worry about any pandemic avian flu.
Let me explain it by way of analogy. The cold virus is in our system, but we donīt always suffer from colds. That is because the trigger does not always happen. In our individual bodies, the virus that causes tuberculosis is there, but why is it that not all of us have TB? The same with the avian flu virus. Why did we have millions of chickens dying in 2003 and 2005 but not in 2004? When there is no trigger, itīs just a virus in (or on) the body of the birds. When the trigger happens, the virus multiplies rapidly, so fast that the birdīs immune system cannot produce enough antibodies to fight what becomes an attack on the body, and so the avian flu conquers the birdīs system and the bird dies.
Now, what exactly is it that triggers the avian flu epidemic? Thatīs for me to say and for the experts to find out!
Believe the statistics from the experts: 61 million chickens killed by a single poultry disease, the avian flu, that is to say, 11 million birds in the Netherlands in February 2003 and 50 million birds in North Korea in March 2005. This disease is no respecter of politics. Western and Eastern experts reaching the same conclusions, the 61 million chickens from that democratic country and that communist country were īmass-culled euphemism for their mass-killing or massacre they were sacrificed en masse with no time to lose without doubt and without mercy. Murder most fowl! It had to be. They were dangerous to other animals. The chickens were also dangerous to humans, as the virus is contagious and so virulent that once it attaches itself to people, it could be fatal.
The data I cited above are statistics from the science magazine Nature. Now, statistics from me: If a bird is worth $2, that was $122 million gone with the wind. If you gave away $60 every 60 seconds, it would take you 1,412 days or almost 4 years of non-stop charity before you gave away the last $60. Thatīs how much money that went thataway. No joke.
The Mayo Clinic reports that since 2003, in fact, hundreds of millions of birds have died this is ecologically and economically devastating. But after all, thatīs only money. Thatīs only birds. Thatīs not even half the story. Nature also reports that in 1918, the Spanish Flu, caused by the same influenza virus, killed more than 40 million people. In 1957, the Asian Flu (caused by the H2N2 virus) killed 100,000 people. In 1968, the Hong Kong Flu caused by the H3N2 virus killed 700,000 people. More people are dying because the virus is mutating.
Now, the World Health Organization is warning the world that the bird flu virus might spark a pandemic of flu that could kill millions of people (my italics). In November 2004, the WHO had warned that the world was unprepared for such a worldwide epidemic (Nature).
So, if we canīt solve the problem of the bird flu worldwide, the jokeīs on us.
Thereīs a lesson or two there somewhere. Letīs see if we can find them.
The uncertainty amidst the uncertainty
And the funny thing about all that is? The scientific befuddlement. The experts are all confused about it all.
Let me explain. First, I say that for two reasons:
(1)The experts are puzzled about how to stop the avian flu pandemic if it comes. If they thought they knew exactly, they wouldnīt worry us to death.
(2)I suspect that the experts are clueless about the deeper cause of it, thatīs why they donīt know how to stop it.
In 1999, two drugs, Relenza and Tamiflu, were licensed in the US and Europe. So we have two drugs for people against the bird flu disease, but the experts are befuddled about them. Consider this: In August 2005, the British magazine Lancet came out with a report on Relenza and Tamiflu saying that īRelenza is at least as effective as Tamiflu but has fewer side effects and there is no evidence of resistance to Relenza, compared with resistance levels of up to 18% in those taking Tamiflu. The researchers recommend stockpiling both.ī Along with this, US President George W Bush launches a $7.1 billion strategy to double the worldīs vaccine-making capability.
Do you see the fuzzy logic? To sort things out based on the above statement with single quotes, we can see that: (a) In 82% of people cases, Tamiflu is effective against the bird flu; in contrast, in 100% of people cases, Relenza is effective. One point for Relenza. Ergo, it is incorrect to say that Relenza is as effective in fact, it is more effective. (b) Relenza has fewer side effects; Tamiflu has more. Another point for Relenza. (c) Therefore, Relenza is much better than Tamiflu. Now, it bemuses me that they are giving the recommendation to stockpile both drugs, even as they say that one has been shown by scientific study to be much better than the other.
But because the tangled recommendation was in fact, given, it suggests very strongly to me that the researchers are not too sure of their findings. If poorly reasoned, the faulty logic I cannot forgive, but I can understand: It is very expensive to conduct extensive tests involving thousands of people, assuming volunteers that many can be found.
Meanwhile, a French vaccine maker has developed a flu vaccine that promotes an immune system in the birds, but this needs further testing.
In any case, for the good of us all, when the time comes, the drugs better work!
One good news above all the bad news is that no human cases of bird flu have ever been linked to eating poultry. That is because heat destroys avian viruses.
And now, the cause that causes
The disease is alternately called the avian flu, bird flu (the most common name), avian influenza, influenza A, influenza B, influenza C. Actually, A, B & C are types. There are subtypes: H1N1, H1N2, H1N3, H2N2, H3N2, H3N8, H5N1, H7N3, H7N7. The H1N1 was the cause of the Spanish Flu that killed 40 million people. The H2N2 (Asian Flu) killed 100,000 in 1957. The H5N1 is the one that is known to mutate quickly, the candidate virus for a flu pandemic. This is known as the killer virus, the strain of bird flu that first broke out in Hong Kong in 1997 and has spread to China, Korea and Southeast Asia. The virus can ījumpī directly from birds to people.
In July 2005, the 3-day WHO conference in Malaysia concluded that $150 million was needed to fight the spread of the disease in people and another $100 million to stop the spread in animals in Asia. They are referring mostly to expenses for vaccines.
But, in fact, the vaccines are the least of our worries.
At least, thatīs my worry. You see, the way I see it, the influenza virus that the scientists say is the cause of the avian flu is the caused cause; that is to say, there is a cause that causes the virus to cause the flu. If they find the cause that causes, then we donīt have to worry about any pandemic avian flu.
Let me explain it by way of analogy. The cold virus is in our system, but we donīt always suffer from colds. That is because the trigger does not always happen. In our individual bodies, the virus that causes tuberculosis is there, but why is it that not all of us have TB? The same with the avian flu virus. Why did we have millions of chickens dying in 2003 and 2005 but not in 2004? When there is no trigger, itīs just a virus in (or on) the body of the birds. When the trigger happens, the virus multiplies rapidly, so fast that the birdīs immune system cannot produce enough antibodies to fight what becomes an attack on the body, and so the avian flu conquers the birdīs system and the bird dies.
Now, what exactly is it that triggers the avian flu epidemic? Thatīs for me to say and for the experts to find out!
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