Russia's Nuclear Threat
Ahmed Hany
January 31, 2008
The Russian Chief of Staff said that his country would use nuclear arms preventively as a prophylactic measure to defend the sovereignty and integrity of its land and its allies. Russia has not used this new language since the end of the cold war.
It may be understood that Russia uses its nuclear arms to defend itself. However, Russia has not a declared alliance since WARSO pact was dissolved in the nineties of the last century. Which countries were the Chief of the Staff talking about?
During 2007, the Russian president Putin said that the US will not attack Iran but he predicted that Syria might be an easier target. He had an agreement with Syria to use its Mediterranean port Tartus as abase for the Russian navy. Shortly he declared that his country would reinstall its navy in the Mediterranean. Last week the Russian top General said that his navy would have military exercise in the strategic sea.
Few months ago, Russia resumed long-range patrol of warplanes that reached Britain and the Northern Pole. Then Russia froze the Conventional Weapons Treaty in Europe. There is a row now between Russia and the West over Kosovo independence.
In fact, Kosovo independence serves the West´s oil security. If Kosovo were independent, the line that carries oil from Central Asia to Turkey would cross safely through the Greek and Albanian lands to reach the Adriatic Sea near Italy. This secures oil supply if Gulf supplies are threatened. It is known that Russia presses on Europe using oil and gas supplies. Serbia is another Russian ally whose land integrity is threatened. Does Russia draw a red line for the West not to cross in Europe?
The timing of the threat is too important. It came one day after Levini visited Moscow to discuss the Iranian Nuclear File. During the visit, Russia sent nuclear fuel to Iran. Russia refuses the Israeli plans to attack nuclear facilities in Iran. Levini left angry after having the cold shoulder and said that she did not understand the Russian policy towards Iran. If Russia drew, another red line for Iran the US and Israel would forget using force against the Persian State. The US would do its best to have a deal about Iraq and the Gulf with Iran while Russia having a say. Few months ago, Putin said that the US should withdraw from Iraq during 2008. It is clear that the UNSC cannot take any decision against Iran without previous fierce negotiations between the West and Russia.
Poland is under Russian pressure for its agreement with the US about the Anti-Missiles Missiles and Radar equipments. Russia declared that it might target these military installations. The Polish government proposed that these installations would be a part of the NATO. However, Russian Generals attacked the NATO and clearly said that it poses a strategic threat for Russia even if there are some sort of cooperation between Russia and NATO to manage disasters.
It is known that Generals talk and threat others when they have ready plans. The Russian Chief of Staff said that there are no plans to attack any country. However, defensive plans and the use of preventive and pre-emptive strikes are different from assault plans. The use of nuclear force as defensive means that Russia has put new strategy, that is different from its long known one that put nuclear weapons as deterrent tools. Military strategies come as a part of global ones that include economic, political and social. The other sides of this strategy are that Russia decided to activate its political and economic roles globally.
It is clear that Russia extended its nuclear umbrella to cover Iran, Syria, and Serbia with its only known ally Byelorussia. This will change many things in the world and will force the US and the West to devise containment policies to deal with the new situation. The year 2008 will be different from the previous twenty years and the new American President has to be fairer or his country would pay a dear.
It may be understood that Russia uses its nuclear arms to defend itself. However, Russia has not a declared alliance since WARSO pact was dissolved in the nineties of the last century. Which countries were the Chief of the Staff talking about?
During 2007, the Russian president Putin said that the US will not attack Iran but he predicted that Syria might be an easier target. He had an agreement with Syria to use its Mediterranean port Tartus as abase for the Russian navy. Shortly he declared that his country would reinstall its navy in the Mediterranean. Last week the Russian top General said that his navy would have military exercise in the strategic sea.
Few months ago, Russia resumed long-range patrol of warplanes that reached Britain and the Northern Pole. Then Russia froze the Conventional Weapons Treaty in Europe. There is a row now between Russia and the West over Kosovo independence.
In fact, Kosovo independence serves the West´s oil security. If Kosovo were independent, the line that carries oil from Central Asia to Turkey would cross safely through the Greek and Albanian lands to reach the Adriatic Sea near Italy. This secures oil supply if Gulf supplies are threatened. It is known that Russia presses on Europe using oil and gas supplies. Serbia is another Russian ally whose land integrity is threatened. Does Russia draw a red line for the West not to cross in Europe?
The timing of the threat is too important. It came one day after Levini visited Moscow to discuss the Iranian Nuclear File. During the visit, Russia sent nuclear fuel to Iran. Russia refuses the Israeli plans to attack nuclear facilities in Iran. Levini left angry after having the cold shoulder and said that she did not understand the Russian policy towards Iran. If Russia drew, another red line for Iran the US and Israel would forget using force against the Persian State. The US would do its best to have a deal about Iraq and the Gulf with Iran while Russia having a say. Few months ago, Putin said that the US should withdraw from Iraq during 2008. It is clear that the UNSC cannot take any decision against Iran without previous fierce negotiations between the West and Russia.
Poland is under Russian pressure for its agreement with the US about the Anti-Missiles Missiles and Radar equipments. Russia declared that it might target these military installations. The Polish government proposed that these installations would be a part of the NATO. However, Russian Generals attacked the NATO and clearly said that it poses a strategic threat for Russia even if there are some sort of cooperation between Russia and NATO to manage disasters.
It is known that Generals talk and threat others when they have ready plans. The Russian Chief of Staff said that there are no plans to attack any country. However, defensive plans and the use of preventive and pre-emptive strikes are different from assault plans. The use of nuclear force as defensive means that Russia has put new strategy, that is different from its long known one that put nuclear weapons as deterrent tools. Military strategies come as a part of global ones that include economic, political and social. The other sides of this strategy are that Russia decided to activate its political and economic roles globally.
It is clear that Russia extended its nuclear umbrella to cover Iran, Syria, and Serbia with its only known ally Byelorussia. This will change many things in the world and will force the US and the West to devise containment policies to deal with the new situation. The year 2008 will be different from the previous twenty years and the new American President has to be fairer or his country would pay a dear.
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