Are voters taking back the electoral process?
Gary Loftis
January 15, 2008
"It ain´t over ´til it´s over." (Yogi Berra)
I loved to hear Yogi Berra´s take on baseball and life. While he was stating the obvious, he was, at the same time, declaring a profound truth.
We Americans relish our reputation for being optimistic, independent, and stubbornly individualistic, yet our media representatives, in their quest for the next Peabody or Pulitzer, seem eager to report the perceived trend of the minute as the definitive truth about the presidential election.
After the Iowa Caucuses, all the media experts had anointed Barak Obama and Mike Huckabee the nominees of their parties. Going into the New Hampshire Primary, they offered dire predictions for the non-anointed candidates; yet, John McCain and Hillary Clinton emerged winners.
In the background, the "experts" have declared as dead the campaigns of most of the candidates who have not finished first or second in one of the two contests. That seems a bit premature, considering that Barak Obama has accrued 1% of the delegates (25) needed to nominate him (~2208) at the Democrat Convention and Mitt Romney has just 2% (24) of the required Republican delegates (~1259).
In fact, as the candidates advance into South Carolina, whose electorate has distinctly different values than do those of Iowa and New Hampshire, several candidates in both parties are still viable. On the Democrat side, John Edwards, a Carolinian, has 18 delegates and could benefit from a home town advantage.
Among Republicans, Ron Paul has mobilized a formidable political force among disaffected older voters and idealistic young voters, groups that historically vote in small numbers, and he has raised a substantial war chest. With an army of volunteers flooding the internet and making hand-lettered posters, there is little likelihood that Rep. Paul will soon withdraw. The longer he stays in the race, the greater is the likelihood that his supporters will become a factor in the process that ultimately names the party´s standard bearer.
Finally, Fred Thompson, whom the pundits have been declaring dead in the water since he entered the race "too late," asserted himself as a force to be reckoned with In the South Carolina Fox News debate. He has drawn enthusiastic crowds all over the Palmetto State. More important, his campaign war chest has seen significant growth since Iowa. If he can stay in the fight through Super Tuesday and his conservative message continues to resonate, Fred Thompson could be a force to be reckoned with at the convention.
The fact is that the pollsters and pundits underestimate the American electorate. We find our nation at the crossroads of several political, economic, and social crises. Our next elected leader must resolve an unpopular war, find a way for our petroleum dependent economy to sustain itself in the face of $150-$200 a barrel oil, prevent legacy entitlement programs from bankrupting future generations, overhaul a broken public education system, prop up a sliding dollar, control our national borders, and develop a defense against international terrorism. The choice of a leader in such times is a serious business.
With strong showings from Thompson and Giuliani in upcoming contests, it is possible that the Republican candidate will not be chosen until the September 1 Minneapolis/St. Paul convention. If Edwards turns around in the South, the Democrats could find themselves in Denver on August 25 with no clear cut winner. Either case would be a triumph for voters; competition has a way of weeding out weak candidates and leadership shows itself during hard-fought convention battles.
The likelihood of such outcomes remains to be seen, but the indications so far are that American voters are making up their own minds, without regard for media predictions. Perhaps we are seeing the voters take back the electoral process. Perhaps the media will again be relegated to reporting what actually happened instead of speculating on what the results mean. Perhaps we will see dozens of talking heads looking for gainful employment.
What a wonderful prospect!
Copyright 2008, Gary Loftis. All Rights Reserved
I loved to hear Yogi Berra´s take on baseball and life. While he was stating the obvious, he was, at the same time, declaring a profound truth.
We Americans relish our reputation for being optimistic, independent, and stubbornly individualistic, yet our media representatives, in their quest for the next Peabody or Pulitzer, seem eager to report the perceived trend of the minute as the definitive truth about the presidential election.
After the Iowa Caucuses, all the media experts had anointed Barak Obama and Mike Huckabee the nominees of their parties. Going into the New Hampshire Primary, they offered dire predictions for the non-anointed candidates; yet, John McCain and Hillary Clinton emerged winners.
In the background, the "experts" have declared as dead the campaigns of most of the candidates who have not finished first or second in one of the two contests. That seems a bit premature, considering that Barak Obama has accrued 1% of the delegates (25) needed to nominate him (~2208) at the Democrat Convention and Mitt Romney has just 2% (24) of the required Republican delegates (~1259).
In fact, as the candidates advance into South Carolina, whose electorate has distinctly different values than do those of Iowa and New Hampshire, several candidates in both parties are still viable. On the Democrat side, John Edwards, a Carolinian, has 18 delegates and could benefit from a home town advantage.
Among Republicans, Ron Paul has mobilized a formidable political force among disaffected older voters and idealistic young voters, groups that historically vote in small numbers, and he has raised a substantial war chest. With an army of volunteers flooding the internet and making hand-lettered posters, there is little likelihood that Rep. Paul will soon withdraw. The longer he stays in the race, the greater is the likelihood that his supporters will become a factor in the process that ultimately names the party´s standard bearer.
Finally, Fred Thompson, whom the pundits have been declaring dead in the water since he entered the race "too late," asserted himself as a force to be reckoned with In the South Carolina Fox News debate. He has drawn enthusiastic crowds all over the Palmetto State. More important, his campaign war chest has seen significant growth since Iowa. If he can stay in the fight through Super Tuesday and his conservative message continues to resonate, Fred Thompson could be a force to be reckoned with at the convention.
The fact is that the pollsters and pundits underestimate the American electorate. We find our nation at the crossroads of several political, economic, and social crises. Our next elected leader must resolve an unpopular war, find a way for our petroleum dependent economy to sustain itself in the face of $150-$200 a barrel oil, prevent legacy entitlement programs from bankrupting future generations, overhaul a broken public education system, prop up a sliding dollar, control our national borders, and develop a defense against international terrorism. The choice of a leader in such times is a serious business.
With strong showings from Thompson and Giuliani in upcoming contests, it is possible that the Republican candidate will not be chosen until the September 1 Minneapolis/St. Paul convention. If Edwards turns around in the South, the Democrats could find themselves in Denver on August 25 with no clear cut winner. Either case would be a triumph for voters; competition has a way of weeding out weak candidates and leadership shows itself during hard-fought convention battles.
The likelihood of such outcomes remains to be seen, but the indications so far are that American voters are making up their own minds, without regard for media predictions. Perhaps we are seeing the voters take back the electoral process. Perhaps the media will again be relegated to reporting what actually happened instead of speculating on what the results mean. Perhaps we will see dozens of talking heads looking for gainful employment.
What a wonderful prospect!
Copyright 2008, Gary Loftis. All Rights Reserved
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