Friday Look: Post Iowa Fracas

The Iowa Caucus has had an opposite effect than in previous years. Instead of winnowing the field, it has blown the race wide open. Five Republican candidates still have a conceivable path to the nomination, albeit some cases are stronger than others. With only 40 delegates out of the 1,191 needed to become the Republican nominee decided; this week’s Friday Look will be devoted to every political fan’s favorite past time: wild speculation.

New Hampshire is a state that is famous for its independents who often give unexpected victories. They can vote in either Party primary and make up their decision late. Eight years ago, they were the source John McCain's victory in the New Hampshire primary. However, Barack Obama's victory in last night's caucus came largely on the support of independents. Independents like McCain, but they also like Obama. Thus, Iowa has set up an interesting Obama vs. McCain in New Hampshire that could leave one of them out in the cold.

John McCain needs those independents and a victory in New Hampshire to have a chance at winning the nomination. If he defeats Mitt Romney there, he will have the momentum heading into Michigan where he will likely be able to use it to drive a nail in the coffin of Romney’s candidacy. From there, he would face a showdown with Mike Huckabee in South Carolina, which if he wins, would give him three victories in a row and a tidal wave of momentum heading into Florida and February 5th. McCain is already a well known national figure as an American hero and an independent/moderate; and that image would make his victory in many of those states all but certain.

Mike Huckabee, by making a strong showing in last night’s caucus, earned himself a ticket to South Carolina and Florida where he enters as the front runner. Although his organization is slim in those states; that is likely to change within the week. The caucus win will also help his fundraising, and the campaign sent out a fundraising email setting a modest goal of raising $1 million by January 10th.

In South Carolina and Florida, Huckabee has a natural appeal as a Southerner and evangelical. But even with wins in those states, he will face a tough time on February 5th. Tsunami Tuesday is the crux of Rudy Giuliani’s strategy, and Huckabee does not have as natural an appeal in many of those states. However, he will have momentum on his side, and wanting to choose the winner is incentive enough for many voters.

Mitt Romney is beginning to look like a second coming of Steve Forbes. He spent millions of dollars in Iowa only to get his clock cleaned by Huckabee. Thus, he needs a return on his investment in New Hampshire, or his likelihood of becoming the nominee will slip further and further away. A win in New Hampshire would likely lead to a win in his home state of Michigan, and it would galvanize his prospects for South Carolina and Florida where he could tap his ATM to stay competitive on the air waves. Additionally, it would give him something that Giuliani will not be able to claim heading into February 5th: a win. And unlike Huckabee, Romney does have a natural appeal as a successful businessman and Governor in many of those states and would be competitive with Giuliani everywhere.

Rudy Giuliani’s big state strategy has put him in a precarious position. His opponents are gathering and capitalizing on momentum every day, while his national numbers continue to slip. He has been taking flak from both his opponents and the media for his decision to skip the early contests. Additionally, he will be unable to claim any victories heading into Florida and February 5th.

However, Giuliani has the northeast locked up on February 5th which will account for a significant number of delegates and should keep him competitive after February 5th. He has a natural appeal as a liberal Republican in large states like California and Illinois. If he does win enough delegates to remain competitive, then the nomination will likely be decided at the Republican National Convention in September.

Ron Paul, by far, has the toughest road to the nomination. Like Giuliani, he has based his campaign on a February 5th strategy, and he will be unable to claim anything more than moral victories before that date. However, much of his support comes from western states that hold later primaries. Additionally, his anti-establishment tendencies give him a natural broad based appeal that could make him a contender on February 5th. But he needs some help. The early primaries would need to produce three different winners; and then maybe, just maybe, he could take advantage of the chaos and be one of the candidates left standing after Tsunami Tuesday.