The Sky's Not Falling--Discussing Global Warming

Joining me today is Montana State University Adjunct Professor Holly Fretwell, whose new book The Sky’s Not Falling: Why It’s OK to Chill about Global Warming is creating some heat of its own. Thank you for agreeing to this interview Professor Fretwell. Before we talk about your book, can you please tell us about yourself and what makes you an expert to speak on the topic of global warming?

I teach economic principles, microeconomics, and natural resource and environmental economics at Montana State University. I am also a research fellow at PERC, the Property and Environment Research Center. My interest in global warming came from an economic policy investigation that was getting really scary as I realized the implications and huge costs that would arise if we were to attempt to prevent global warming through government intervention and regulation on CO2 emissions. My expertise is not in climate science, rather in the economic and policy implications of a warmer earth.

Think about it, if we assume that the earth is warming, it is human caused, and we can do something about it the potential actions, as we’ve seen in many proposals are extremely costly. The real catch, however, is the benefits from those costly actions are tiny.

You have been published in both professional journals and the popular press. What are some of the topics you have addressed?

My focus of the last decade has been on forest, parks, and public lands policy. I have examined the state of our national forests and parks on which I have spoken as an expert witness for Congress. Only in recent years have I taken on the study of climate change and its policy implications.

Let’s move on to The Sky’s Not Falling: Why It’s OK to Chill about Global Warming. What made you decide to write this book?

Like so many other people I was confused about the information I was hearing about global warming. The popular press says it's human caused, there is far less concensus in the scientific journals where a multitude of factors that influence climate are examined. That confusion followed by the costly policy recommendations encouraged me to look further. In that search I found lots of great material, and some not so great. Some of the most disappointing material I found was propaganda to scare our children into making uninformed choices. There is so much information available today, via internet, TV, radio, etc., that I think it vitally important to teach our children how to think critically and be able to decipher fact from fiction. That is why I wrote The Sky's Not Falling, and that is why I wrote it in simple enough terms for children, parents, and all adults to read.

The fact sheet I received from World Ahead Publishing called your book, “the alternative to Scholastic’s fear-inducing global warming kids’ book.” Are they referring to Laurie David and Cambria Gordon’s book “The Down-to-Earth Guide to Global Warming”? Why is this book fear-inducing? Is there truly any harm to parents and children being made aware of what they can do to protect the environment?

Sharing good information and ideas on how to become a critical thinker is exactly what my book is about.

One of the scary things about the David and Gordon book is that they do not have their facts straight. The authors show a graph on page 18 of the book that supports the main hypothesis of the book. The graph shows how atmospheric CO2 levels and temperature have moved together over time. That part is undisputed. But their graph mislabels the lines showing temperature as CO2 and CO2 as temperature. The authors continue to tell a story about how because of this correlation CO2 is causing global warming. This points to the blatent error in their graph because the raw data shows that temperature changes occur before changes in CO2 levels. This means that while there is a correlation between temperature and CO2 levels it is not indicative of causation. Any causation would appear to be in the direction opposite the theory supported by the book.

It is just this type of fear mongering that I am opposed to. We need to educate our kids about the reality of the world around them so they are addressing the appropiate issues and creating the best innovative ideas to solve the real world problems.

There is a graph on page 19 of The Sky’s Not Falling, which indicates that research shows that sinks absorb at least half of the human-released carbon dioxide. Can you tell us more about this graph and what it means?

The graph on page 19 of The Sky's Not Falling is the correct version of the correlation between atmospheric CO2 levels and temperature. What is significant is that temperatures and CO2 levels have changed many times over the past 650,000 years. Indeed, temperatrues have been warmer in the past than they are today. And, as stated earlier, the change in temperature occurs before the change in CO2 levels. That is, temperature rises and the increase in atmospheric CO2 levels follows the temperature change. Now we know that, at least today, much of the increase in CO2 levels is human caused. What we don't know is how much of an impact that CO2 has on climate.

Page 23 of your book says there are three reasons why humans cannot have caused global warming all by themselves. Can you discuss these reasons with us and what evidence there is to prove them as fact?

The earth has warmed and cooled many times in its long history; long before the industrial revolution that brought increased CO2 emissions and long before humans were even on Earth. The evidence of this is found in proxy measures because, of course, humans were not on Earth to measure the temperature hundreds of thousands of years ago. Such proxy measures include an examination of air bubbles found in ice cores, tree rings, corals, ocean and lake bed sediment layers, and pollen. Additional evidence is showing that not only are temperatures on Earth rising but also on Mars and perhaps even on Jupiter and Pluto.

You bring up an interesting point in Exercise 5, which is found on Page 95 of The Sky’s Not Falling. You ask the reader to imagine a world with no pollution and what it would look like. Could you share some of what you see a world with zero pollution would be like?

A world with no pollution is idealistic. Pollution is waste and all humans and animals emit waste of some sort. At the very least a world with no waste is a world with no production; no cars, no computers, no hospitals, no campfires, no freedom to move about.

What is more interesting is how clean is clean enough. There are costs and benefits to cleaning our environment. What people often foreget is that money spent one place is money that cannot be spent somewhere else. All the money being proposed to be spent to reduce CO2 is likely of little benefit over the next 100 years. In chapter 5 of The Sky’s Not Falling you’ll learn what we can do now to ensure a better tomorrow. We should avoid policies that will cripple the economy and instead use wealth and innovation to create better technology for the future

Your connections to the Property and Environment Research Center (PERC) has gotten your name listed on a website titled, ExxonSecrets.org, which is a Greenpeace project - Exxon Secrets Fretwell Fact Sheet. An analysis is also found on this site about PERC and the amount of funding they have received from ExxonMobil. Have any of your critics accused you of falsifying information in your book to cater to ExxonMobil or any other organization which donates to PERC?

PERC does accept a small amount of money form Exxon to help cover our general overhead expenses. I can only assume that this support comes because they like what we do. They have never asked us to alter our conclusions to fit any agenda and nor would we. PERC is a think tank where we research various environmental issues and examine existing and potential solutions from a free market perspective.

Where can readers purchase a copy of The Sky’s Not Falling?

The book is available at Amazon.com, Borders, Barnes and Noble, Books a Million and other local book stores.

Is there anything you would like to add?

There is great value to the reader of "The Sky's Not Falling". The benefit is that by following the easy to read and understandable chapters you’ll experience a road map of targeted examples and compelling stories that highlight and dispel the dangerous myths of global warming. You’ll experience eye opening and informative results coming from years of research and conclusions that will help you better understand the world in which we live. And most important you’ll experience the peace of mind gained from having the true insights of global warming; that you and your family are safe.

Thank you for speaking with me today, Professor Fretwell. It has been a pleasure.

Thank you. I hope everyone enjoys the book and shares it by instigating more discussion about what is really happening in our world and the possible responses to those constant changes. It is freedom and markets that help spark the innovative ideas that solve the many problems we meet.