Strategic Implications of Growing Sino-Japan Relations
Rizwan Ghani
December 06, 2007
Sino- Japan relations are a reality. Tokyo like rest of the world in all probability has fine-tuned its policies to address its energy and economic interests more than anything else. It is therefore impractical to raise the Korean Peninsula “Ghost” for Tokyo.
Tokyo’s cutting of Japanese Naval mission in Indian Ocean amidst reports of time frame for withdrawal of (its) support-troops from Iraq and growing relations with China shows that political dynamics are fast shifting in the region. In the start of this year, Europe reviewed its traditional trade and foreign policies and moved closer to Russia and China to secure its geo-political and energy interests. Similarly, Arab world including Gulf States have also broadened their relationships with these Asian giants under ‘look East policies’.
In terms of state-to-state level relations, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao hailed the two-day meeting as “successful,” as China and Japan amicably wrapped up their first high-level trade and economic talks in both countries 35-year-old diplomatic relations by pledging greater overall cooperation. In a joint statement, two sides promised to strengthen efforts to form a regional free-trade zone, promote energy efficiency and improve protection of intellectual property rights. They also agreed to participate in an anti-global warming framework to replace the Kyoto Protocol, and cooperate on measures to combat money laundering, terrorism financing and smuggling. “It’s clear China and Japanese relations have taken another step forward, especially in the areas of trade and commerce,” Wen told Japanese Foreign Minister Masahiko Komura.
This meeting has followed both countries PMs’ meeting in regional conference in Singapore. Reportedly, efforts are also being made to settle dates for an upcoming visit to China by PM Yasuo Fukuda and a reciprocal trip to Japan by Chinese President Hu Jinta. The foreign ministers also agreed to more exchanges among countries’ armies and defense officials. The thaw in these relations was heralded in November by the first-ever port call of Chinese naval ships in Japan.
It is opined that with the growing relations between both states it is only matter of time that issues will be resolved concerning value of the Chinese currency, energy, environment, and investment policies. It is hoped that the agreement to jointly develop the Chunxia gas field will further reinforce the energy relations between two countries following formation of SCO energy block of which China is also an important member. Similarly, it is also expected that there will be a positive headway to address Japanese traders concerns about acquisitions policies of Chinese firms. According to Japan’s foreign ministry, the Japanese investments fell 30 percent last year to $ 4.6 billion.
In the broader strategic perspective, the growing Sino-Japan relations have already started having global implications. It is opined that as a quid-pro-quo to growing Tokyo-Beijing relations the North Korean nuclear talks should now slow down. The reports that, if Pyongyang does not come clean on its uranium program it will be extremely difficult to sell the deal in USA are case in point. In all probability by connecting Pyongyang’s nuclear program to proliferation with Syria and linking removal of Pyongyang from terror list conditional to clarifications could well be the part of political pressure on Tokyo. One outcome of such a flawed strategy is most likely. It will frustrate North Korean leadership that is desperately seeking lifting of sanctions to ease pressure on its poverty-stricken public. It will also undermine efforts on part of Seoul, which under immense public pressure from both sides of Peninsula borders is seeking expansion of its relations with NK to expand economic, trade activities, and ease travel restrictions.
It is opined that the surest way to dismantle Pyongyang’s nuclear program to arrest nuclear proliferation is that Washington trusts Pyongyang so that the later allows dismantling of its nuclear infrastructure. The process will automatically allow physical access to the Korean program that in turn will answer all the queries. Washington by laying out the preconditions prior to the start of the process could be putting the cart before the horse that is most likely to doom the entire process.
The only safest, quickest approach to permanently scrap NK’s military nuclear program is to lift economic sanctions, ease other restrictions to help its leaders sell the scrapping of program to their public. It will also ease domestic military pressure on the NK leaders. The details should also help end unfounded proliferation assumptions associated with country’s nuclear program unnecessarily involving other countries. The allegations otherwise lack independent verifications.
Sino- Japan relations are a reality. Tokyo like rest of the world in all probability has fine-tuned its policies to address its energy and economic interests more than anything else. It is therefore impractical to raise the Korean Peninsula “Ghost” for Tokyo. It can be argued that Washington as part of forward looking policy should expedite scrapping of NK’s nuclear program and in return could expect Beijing to help end US-Iran standoff.
The issuance of US National Intelligence Evaluation (NIE) report on Iran has created a situation that Bush can use as ‘face saving’ and review his policy on Iran despite the fact that Bush is maintaining his old position on Iran- was dangerous before the report and (is) still dangerous. There is still time to undo the damage to US interests to which in many ways global economic and security interest are interwoven. The growing challenges for GCC states including pressure for de-pegging their currencies from dollar is a case in point. The rest of the world is already paying the price in shape of high oil prices that in turn is expanding poverty in third world countries.
It is opined that China will not support any US-Iran collision. The NIE Iran report has further isolated Bush at the global level against any Iran misadventure. Similarly, Russia has already said that it will not tolerate any attack on Iran that is part of SCO energy block. In case of any flare up between Iran and US (or Israel at its own etc.) it will push China and Europe towards Russia to secure their energy interests. It will result in firming up of evolving global strategic geo-political and energy policies that will permanently tilt against Washington. The unending stay of US forces in Iraq is also pushing Asian and ME leadership to distance from Washington under mounting public pressure. It is also compromising credibility of democracy in these regions and undermining West’s stand for human rights, civil and constitutional liberties.
Washington can still undo the damage it has incurred to its interests in the ME and Asia by reviewing its policies in the region. The replacement of use of force with diplomacy can be good start. Iran and Afghan wars are nothing but diplomatic, economic and financial quagmires. Similarly, I still maintain as mentioned in my article Flawed US Asia Strategy published in American Chronicle dated 5 Sept. that friendly US-Iran relations serve Western, regional and national interests. In wake of growing energy-based relations the importance of US-Iran relations have increased manifold.
Finally, the growing Sino-Japan relations are good news for the region and narrowing of differences between both states over trade policies and currency issue will be even better. Japan will add its economic strength to the regional markets and China will bring unlimited advantages to region in terms of expansion in trade, technology and economic uplift. In strategic terms, growing cooperation between both states could help bring political stability and security both within the region and globally. China can help end US-Iran standoff. Similarly, Washington needs to recognize energy and economic needs of sovereign states including Japan. It should therefore help end NK’s nuclear program. Lastly, in view of the broader picture, US troops should be withdrawn from Iraq so that regional states help Iraq restore peace and security. On the contrary, it is only matter of time that the global community including Arabs will replace policies supporting use of force and weakening currency to save local economies and secure global peace. China and Japan will be no exception.
Tokyo’s cutting of Japanese Naval mission in Indian Ocean amidst reports of time frame for withdrawal of (its) support-troops from Iraq and growing relations with China shows that political dynamics are fast shifting in the region. In the start of this year, Europe reviewed its traditional trade and foreign policies and moved closer to Russia and China to secure its geo-political and energy interests. Similarly, Arab world including Gulf States have also broadened their relationships with these Asian giants under ‘look East policies’.
In terms of state-to-state level relations, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao hailed the two-day meeting as “successful,” as China and Japan amicably wrapped up their first high-level trade and economic talks in both countries 35-year-old diplomatic relations by pledging greater overall cooperation. In a joint statement, two sides promised to strengthen efforts to form a regional free-trade zone, promote energy efficiency and improve protection of intellectual property rights. They also agreed to participate in an anti-global warming framework to replace the Kyoto Protocol, and cooperate on measures to combat money laundering, terrorism financing and smuggling. “It’s clear China and Japanese relations have taken another step forward, especially in the areas of trade and commerce,” Wen told Japanese Foreign Minister Masahiko Komura.
This meeting has followed both countries PMs’ meeting in regional conference in Singapore. Reportedly, efforts are also being made to settle dates for an upcoming visit to China by PM Yasuo Fukuda and a reciprocal trip to Japan by Chinese President Hu Jinta. The foreign ministers also agreed to more exchanges among countries’ armies and defense officials. The thaw in these relations was heralded in November by the first-ever port call of Chinese naval ships in Japan.
It is opined that with the growing relations between both states it is only matter of time that issues will be resolved concerning value of the Chinese currency, energy, environment, and investment policies. It is hoped that the agreement to jointly develop the Chunxia gas field will further reinforce the energy relations between two countries following formation of SCO energy block of which China is also an important member. Similarly, it is also expected that there will be a positive headway to address Japanese traders concerns about acquisitions policies of Chinese firms. According to Japan’s foreign ministry, the Japanese investments fell 30 percent last year to $ 4.6 billion.
In the broader strategic perspective, the growing Sino-Japan relations have already started having global implications. It is opined that as a quid-pro-quo to growing Tokyo-Beijing relations the North Korean nuclear talks should now slow down. The reports that, if Pyongyang does not come clean on its uranium program it will be extremely difficult to sell the deal in USA are case in point. In all probability by connecting Pyongyang’s nuclear program to proliferation with Syria and linking removal of Pyongyang from terror list conditional to clarifications could well be the part of political pressure on Tokyo. One outcome of such a flawed strategy is most likely. It will frustrate North Korean leadership that is desperately seeking lifting of sanctions to ease pressure on its poverty-stricken public. It will also undermine efforts on part of Seoul, which under immense public pressure from both sides of Peninsula borders is seeking expansion of its relations with NK to expand economic, trade activities, and ease travel restrictions.
It is opined that the surest way to dismantle Pyongyang’s nuclear program to arrest nuclear proliferation is that Washington trusts Pyongyang so that the later allows dismantling of its nuclear infrastructure. The process will automatically allow physical access to the Korean program that in turn will answer all the queries. Washington by laying out the preconditions prior to the start of the process could be putting the cart before the horse that is most likely to doom the entire process.
The only safest, quickest approach to permanently scrap NK’s military nuclear program is to lift economic sanctions, ease other restrictions to help its leaders sell the scrapping of program to their public. It will also ease domestic military pressure on the NK leaders. The details should also help end unfounded proliferation assumptions associated with country’s nuclear program unnecessarily involving other countries. The allegations otherwise lack independent verifications.
Sino- Japan relations are a reality. Tokyo like rest of the world in all probability has fine-tuned its policies to address its energy and economic interests more than anything else. It is therefore impractical to raise the Korean Peninsula “Ghost” for Tokyo. It can be argued that Washington as part of forward looking policy should expedite scrapping of NK’s nuclear program and in return could expect Beijing to help end US-Iran standoff.
The issuance of US National Intelligence Evaluation (NIE) report on Iran has created a situation that Bush can use as ‘face saving’ and review his policy on Iran despite the fact that Bush is maintaining his old position on Iran- was dangerous before the report and (is) still dangerous. There is still time to undo the damage to US interests to which in many ways global economic and security interest are interwoven. The growing challenges for GCC states including pressure for de-pegging their currencies from dollar is a case in point. The rest of the world is already paying the price in shape of high oil prices that in turn is expanding poverty in third world countries.
It is opined that China will not support any US-Iran collision. The NIE Iran report has further isolated Bush at the global level against any Iran misadventure. Similarly, Russia has already said that it will not tolerate any attack on Iran that is part of SCO energy block. In case of any flare up between Iran and US (or Israel at its own etc.) it will push China and Europe towards Russia to secure their energy interests. It will result in firming up of evolving global strategic geo-political and energy policies that will permanently tilt against Washington. The unending stay of US forces in Iraq is also pushing Asian and ME leadership to distance from Washington under mounting public pressure. It is also compromising credibility of democracy in these regions and undermining West’s stand for human rights, civil and constitutional liberties.
Washington can still undo the damage it has incurred to its interests in the ME and Asia by reviewing its policies in the region. The replacement of use of force with diplomacy can be good start. Iran and Afghan wars are nothing but diplomatic, economic and financial quagmires. Similarly, I still maintain as mentioned in my article Flawed US Asia Strategy published in American Chronicle dated 5 Sept. that friendly US-Iran relations serve Western, regional and national interests. In wake of growing energy-based relations the importance of US-Iran relations have increased manifold.
Finally, the growing Sino-Japan relations are good news for the region and narrowing of differences between both states over trade policies and currency issue will be even better. Japan will add its economic strength to the regional markets and China will bring unlimited advantages to region in terms of expansion in trade, technology and economic uplift. In strategic terms, growing cooperation between both states could help bring political stability and security both within the region and globally. China can help end US-Iran standoff. Similarly, Washington needs to recognize energy and economic needs of sovereign states including Japan. It should therefore help end NK’s nuclear program. Lastly, in view of the broader picture, US troops should be withdrawn from Iraq so that regional states help Iraq restore peace and security. On the contrary, it is only matter of time that the global community including Arabs will replace policies supporting use of force and weakening currency to save local economies and secure global peace. China and Japan will be no exception.
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