The United States, Turkey, and Russia.
M. Orhan Tarhan
November 20, 2007
Turkey is being attacked by the PKK terrorists, who are being protected by the Bush Administration in North Iraq. This may lose Turkey’s friendship at a time when Russia is becoming a new Cold War adversary. Such a blunder should be prevented.
During the Cold War, Turkey staunchly defended the West against the Soviet Union. With the crumbling of the Berlin Wall, The Soviet Union disintegrated. It shed the Warsaw Pact countries, such as East Germany, Czechoslovakia, Poland, the Baltic republics, Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria and some Asian client states. In the remaining part of the USSR, Gorbachev initiated democracy and capitalism at the same time and got neither. During that period, and after the Russian state was established by Yeltsin, the United State assisted the Russians to form a free and democratic society. Suddenly Russia became a friendly country and Turkey’s defensive role south of the Caucasus became unnecessary.
Unlike China that installed capitalism without democracy and was successful, Russia became a mess. Russian leaders had not learned from history (For example from Turkey) that drastic change and democracy can’t happen together. Under democracy people don’t want to change. The mess in Russia produced increasingly authoritarian government under Putin. As time passed, Russia became less and less friendly to the United States. Part of the reason for that was, that with the invasion of Iraq, the U.S. came pretty close to Russia. That proximity let Russia feel less secure. As far as Turkey is concerned, the U.S. became a neighbor of Turkey in Iraq.
Several months ago, suddenly, the Bush Administration decided to install anti-missile missiles in Europe, near the Russian border, allegedly to shoot Iranian missiles on their way to Western Europe or the United States. Iran had no such missiles yet and was still far from making nuclear bombs. Russians were shocked. They perceived those anti-missile missiles were put there against them. They proposed to put those missiles in Azerbaijan and offered to help the U.S. in this enterprise. Alternatives places could be Turkey or platforms on the sea somewhere. The U. S. said Turkey did not come in consideration and the project remained as is. The President invited Mr. Putin to Kennebunkport, but apparently could not convince him of his sincerity. Thus, Russians decided to target European cities on their missiles. On the face of increasing rumors that the Bush Administration is preparing the ground for an attack on Iran, Putin signed a mutual assistance pact with Iran, which makes now Iran even more dangerous. An attack on Iran could trigger a U.S-Russian confrontation. Thus, the rosy days of 1990-95 have now passed. Russia again takes the place of the USSR and soon or later Turkey’s strategic position should become very important, just like during the Cold war.
The United States and Turkey have been NATO allies for a long time. They have been pretty close militarily. Turkish air force officers have been trained in the United States. Turkey sends military cadets to schools such as West Point. At Incirlik (pronounced “Injirlik”), near Adana, there is a huge NATO base which is a very important base for the United States. Right now, according to press reports, 75 % of Iraq’s needs are supplied over Turkey. Until the Iraq War, relations between the two countries have been very friendly and cordial. The pro-American opinion in Turkey in 2002 was over 50 %.
The Iraq war was a water shed, it was the starting of unpleasant relations. Before the war started in March 2003, The U.S. asked Turkey for the permission to land a division or two in Iskenderun, to move them through South Turkey to the Turkish-Iraq border, and to attack Iraq from Turkey. Other forces would attack Iraq also from the South. The Erdogan government in Ankara appeared to be sympathetic to this proposal and the Pentagon jumped the gun and moved troops in ships to Iskenderun Bay. After some delay, the Turkish parliament was asked to vote and the vote was negative. That made the Pentagon very angry. The Iraq War was started with three divisions attacking from the South and was quite successful, until the guerilla war started. During the discussions before the War, Turkey had asked the permission to destroy the PKK. The Bush Administration did not want Turkish forces to get into Northern Iraq, so it promised to take care of PKK itself. Following the negative vote in the Turkish parliament, the U.S. forgot about its promise to take care of the PKK. Even worse than that, the PKK was allowed to attack Turkish soldiers and civilians in Turkey from the safety of the American-occupied North Iraq. It is not difficult to guess what that did to the Turkish-American relations. As flag-draped coffins of soldiers arrived in Turkish villages, the people blamed the United States for the death of their sons. Today, pro-U.S. opinion in Turkey is 9%, the lowest in the World. Part of the reason for the Bush Administration to protect the PKK is that it is using it, according to newspaper reports, against Iran. It is unbelievable that a super-power claiming to wage a war against terrorism, itself uses terrorists against its adversaries. I wished these reports were falls.
The people began protesting in Turkish cities against the PKK and wanted to force the government to do something about it. At the request of the military, the government asked the Turkish Parliament and obtained the permission for the military to do hot pursuits of the PKK into Northern Iraq. Actually, self defense is an international right recognized by the U.N. It does not require any permission from anyone. The government still did not give that permission, hoping to resolve the problem in Washington. There were again promises in Washington. It remains to be seen whether these promises will be kept. At the date of this writing, the Turkish military was all ready to go, but the Erdogan government did not give them the permission.
After four years of war in Iraq, most Iraqis want the U.S. to leave as soon as possible, except the Kurds in the North. They want Americans to stay there and build military bases.
It seems that the Bush administration shares this view. The Turkish press reported that some time ago an American officer showed at a NATO meeting a map that included several of Turkish South Eastern provinces in an independent Kurdish state. After the protest of Turkish officers, it was said that that was some officer’s private idea and the U.S. said it was sorry that it happened. If it was not for the Bush Administration’s protection of the PKK, such an incident would have been forgotten. But in view of the PKK issue, that map is not being forgotten. It has left a bitter after taste.
Now, if the PKK is not destroyed soon either by U.S. or Turkish forces and is allowed to attack Turkey again, Turkey might think that the behavior of the Bush Administration does not fit the definition of a friend and might start looking for other security ties.
The Bush Administration might be making its calculations on the hope that they will stay in Kurdish Iraq even after November 2008. However, that does not look like a realistic expectation. Even if the Republicans win in 2008, sacrificing a proven old solid friend for a few millions Kurds does not look very rational, especially at a time when Russia was pushed through the missile-shooting missile project to return to its old Cold War attitude. Historians say that the U.S. eventually will need Turkey. Thus, losing Turkey’s friendship now would be a colossal historical blunder that should be avoided.
During the Cold War, Turkey staunchly defended the West against the Soviet Union. With the crumbling of the Berlin Wall, The Soviet Union disintegrated. It shed the Warsaw Pact countries, such as East Germany, Czechoslovakia, Poland, the Baltic republics, Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria and some Asian client states. In the remaining part of the USSR, Gorbachev initiated democracy and capitalism at the same time and got neither. During that period, and after the Russian state was established by Yeltsin, the United State assisted the Russians to form a free and democratic society. Suddenly Russia became a friendly country and Turkey’s defensive role south of the Caucasus became unnecessary.
Unlike China that installed capitalism without democracy and was successful, Russia became a mess. Russian leaders had not learned from history (For example from Turkey) that drastic change and democracy can’t happen together. Under democracy people don’t want to change. The mess in Russia produced increasingly authoritarian government under Putin. As time passed, Russia became less and less friendly to the United States. Part of the reason for that was, that with the invasion of Iraq, the U.S. came pretty close to Russia. That proximity let Russia feel less secure. As far as Turkey is concerned, the U.S. became a neighbor of Turkey in Iraq.
Several months ago, suddenly, the Bush Administration decided to install anti-missile missiles in Europe, near the Russian border, allegedly to shoot Iranian missiles on their way to Western Europe or the United States. Iran had no such missiles yet and was still far from making nuclear bombs. Russians were shocked. They perceived those anti-missile missiles were put there against them. They proposed to put those missiles in Azerbaijan and offered to help the U.S. in this enterprise. Alternatives places could be Turkey or platforms on the sea somewhere. The U. S. said Turkey did not come in consideration and the project remained as is. The President invited Mr. Putin to Kennebunkport, but apparently could not convince him of his sincerity. Thus, Russians decided to target European cities on their missiles. On the face of increasing rumors that the Bush Administration is preparing the ground for an attack on Iran, Putin signed a mutual assistance pact with Iran, which makes now Iran even more dangerous. An attack on Iran could trigger a U.S-Russian confrontation. Thus, the rosy days of 1990-95 have now passed. Russia again takes the place of the USSR and soon or later Turkey’s strategic position should become very important, just like during the Cold war.
The United States and Turkey have been NATO allies for a long time. They have been pretty close militarily. Turkish air force officers have been trained in the United States. Turkey sends military cadets to schools such as West Point. At Incirlik (pronounced “Injirlik”), near Adana, there is a huge NATO base which is a very important base for the United States. Right now, according to press reports, 75 % of Iraq’s needs are supplied over Turkey. Until the Iraq War, relations between the two countries have been very friendly and cordial. The pro-American opinion in Turkey in 2002 was over 50 %.
The Iraq war was a water shed, it was the starting of unpleasant relations. Before the war started in March 2003, The U.S. asked Turkey for the permission to land a division or two in Iskenderun, to move them through South Turkey to the Turkish-Iraq border, and to attack Iraq from Turkey. Other forces would attack Iraq also from the South. The Erdogan government in Ankara appeared to be sympathetic to this proposal and the Pentagon jumped the gun and moved troops in ships to Iskenderun Bay. After some delay, the Turkish parliament was asked to vote and the vote was negative. That made the Pentagon very angry. The Iraq War was started with three divisions attacking from the South and was quite successful, until the guerilla war started. During the discussions before the War, Turkey had asked the permission to destroy the PKK. The Bush Administration did not want Turkish forces to get into Northern Iraq, so it promised to take care of PKK itself. Following the negative vote in the Turkish parliament, the U.S. forgot about its promise to take care of the PKK. Even worse than that, the PKK was allowed to attack Turkish soldiers and civilians in Turkey from the safety of the American-occupied North Iraq. It is not difficult to guess what that did to the Turkish-American relations. As flag-draped coffins of soldiers arrived in Turkish villages, the people blamed the United States for the death of their sons. Today, pro-U.S. opinion in Turkey is 9%, the lowest in the World. Part of the reason for the Bush Administration to protect the PKK is that it is using it, according to newspaper reports, against Iran. It is unbelievable that a super-power claiming to wage a war against terrorism, itself uses terrorists against its adversaries. I wished these reports were falls.
The people began protesting in Turkish cities against the PKK and wanted to force the government to do something about it. At the request of the military, the government asked the Turkish Parliament and obtained the permission for the military to do hot pursuits of the PKK into Northern Iraq. Actually, self defense is an international right recognized by the U.N. It does not require any permission from anyone. The government still did not give that permission, hoping to resolve the problem in Washington. There were again promises in Washington. It remains to be seen whether these promises will be kept. At the date of this writing, the Turkish military was all ready to go, but the Erdogan government did not give them the permission.
After four years of war in Iraq, most Iraqis want the U.S. to leave as soon as possible, except the Kurds in the North. They want Americans to stay there and build military bases.
It seems that the Bush administration shares this view. The Turkish press reported that some time ago an American officer showed at a NATO meeting a map that included several of Turkish South Eastern provinces in an independent Kurdish state. After the protest of Turkish officers, it was said that that was some officer’s private idea and the U.S. said it was sorry that it happened. If it was not for the Bush Administration’s protection of the PKK, such an incident would have been forgotten. But in view of the PKK issue, that map is not being forgotten. It has left a bitter after taste.
Now, if the PKK is not destroyed soon either by U.S. or Turkish forces and is allowed to attack Turkey again, Turkey might think that the behavior of the Bush Administration does not fit the definition of a friend and might start looking for other security ties.
The Bush Administration might be making its calculations on the hope that they will stay in Kurdish Iraq even after November 2008. However, that does not look like a realistic expectation. Even if the Republicans win in 2008, sacrificing a proven old solid friend for a few millions Kurds does not look very rational, especially at a time when Russia was pushed through the missile-shooting missile project to return to its old Cold War attitude. Historians say that the U.S. eventually will need Turkey. Thus, losing Turkey’s friendship now would be a colossal historical blunder that should be avoided.
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