Declaration Of Emergency To Further Increase War Of Words
Muhammad Khurshid
November 04, 2007
Declaration of emergency by President General Pervez Musharraf in Pakistan is a clear indication that situation in the country is very very critical. Almost all the politicians have rejected the declaration of emergency. Situation in Pakistan has been deteriorating with each passing day. President Musharraf may be enjoying the support of the United States as without her support he cannot take such extraordinary step. Now there is expectation that campaign against terrorism will further be intensified.
According to a newspaper comment, November 3 will go down as another dark day in Pakistan's political and constitutional history. It can be safely said that this is one of General Pervez Musharraf's gravest errors of judgment, and a sorry indication that nothing has been learnt from the mistakes of the past. The imposition of emergency rule and suspension of the 1973 Constitution announced on Saturday is only going to destroy the very institutions that this country crucially needs for evolving into a true democracy, particularly the judiciary, media and parliament. It will further fracture an already weakened federation, alienate those who have grievances against the centre, such as the Tribal Areas and Balochistan, and push whatever little credibility the government had down a very deep abyss. Such a draconian step will also have little effect on our ability to fight terrorism and extremism. It would be fair to assume that the emergency has been imposed only to target two institutions: the judiciary and the media but it may well have poisonous effects on another: i.e. parliament. Those in the ruling PML-Q will be foolish not to realise that the legislative branch of government has received a death blow as well since the imposition has come from an army general.
The fact that the official statement carrying the emergency announcement used 'army chief' rather than president to refer to the authority behind the promulgation is significant as well indicating that perhaps what we have on our hands is a de facto martial law -- one in which the assemblies will function but only to give the impression that democracy has not been hampered in any manner. Furthermore, the timing of the proclamation, a few days before an expected judgment on a case that could have potentially declared the president's re-election null and void, is such that very few people in this country, or overseas for that matter, will buy the argument that it has been imposed to arrest the deteriorating law and order situation and to allow the government to focus on fighting extremism and militancy. It will be difficult to remove public doubts that it has only been imposed to target a superior judiciary that has finally found some spine and is carrying out its constitutional role of acting as a watchdog on the executive, which in Pakistan's case was often overstepping its constitutionally-defined authority. As for the media, the fact that private television channels were blacked out for the better part of Saturday is a grim indication of the government's intentions. However, here too, such bans are essentially counter-productive and will be seen by ordinary Pakistanis as a desperate act of a regime bent on shielding itself from criticism.
Meanwhile, the Chief Justice of Pakistan has been informed that his services were no longer required. In any case, the promulgation of a provisional constitutional order would mean that most of the judges of the Supreme Court who had in recent weeks taken a brave and defiant stand against the government and the military would be pushed aside and not be invited to take a fresh oath; many would in all probability decline such an offer. As news of the imposition of emergency spread, eight members of the Supreme Court defiantly struck down the proclamation, which could well trigger off a new stand-off. The future is not looking good -- not least because the president's move is bound to have massive repercussions and a severe response from all segments of civil society. Such acts are indefensible at any time, more so in this day and age.
Most of the analysts think that this act of the president will backfire, but the tribesmen think otherwise. According to survey report, Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf's bid to cling to power is set to backfire badly, destabilising a key US ally, spawning new militant attacks and straining relations with the army, analysts said.
Musharraf, who led a military coup in 1999, imposed a state of emergency in nuclear-armed Pakistan on Saturday in response to what he said was a hostile judiciary and the growing menace of Al-Qaeda and pro-Taliban militants.
But analysts said Musharraf's main concern was to purge the Supreme Court of anti-government judges ahead of a ruling on the legality of his victory in a controversial October 6 presidential election.
Far from enhancing his fight against Islamists, who have regrouped in Pakistan's tribal belt to plot attacks on the West, emergency rule will strengthen their cause and increase the likelihood of attacks, they added.
"Musharraf is riding a rudderless ship in a big and unpredictable political storm," Rasul Baksh Rais, a political scientist at Lahore's University of Management Sciences, said.
"He may survive for a while but he will be swept away by the tide of anger, popular resentment and forces that wish to restore some degree of decency and normalcy to Pakistan," he said.
In the wake of the emergency declaration, Musharraf's security forces rounded up several key opposition leaders and lawyers and sealed off much of the capital to prevent protests.
He has also imposed tough curbs on the media, barring all criticism of himself and the government.
Analysts said the situation was closer to martial law than an emergency, with the suspension of many fundamental rights, and added that the opposition would not tolerate such a situation for long.
"It is a second coup by Musharraf. We are heading for a very uncertain time because this coup will be challenged by political parties," Hasan Askari, former head of political science at Punjab University, said.
The key figures will be former premier Benazir Bhutto, who returned from exile on October 18 and has not ruled out a mooted power-sharing deal with Musharraf, and fundamentalist opposition leader Maulana Fazlur Rehman, who has criticised the president's actions.
"This martial law will stay in place until either this parliament or the next parliament by a two-thirds majority indemnifies it. That is where the role of Bhutto and Fazlur Rehman becomes critical," Najam Sethi, editor of an English daily said.
The forces of Islamic militancy will also hit back against Musharraf, stepping up a wave of attacks that has killed more than 400 people since a government raid on the radical Red Mosque in Islamabad in July, Rais said.
"This move will impact the fight against militancy and terrorism. If you suppress popular democracy you only create opportunities for militancy and armed struggle," he said.
But analysts said the biggest danger is from within -- the military that backed Musharraf's original coup and has supported him for the past eight years in his US-backed campaign against the militants.
The 500,000-strong army has been demoralised not only by a series of attacks on security forces and abductions by militants, but also by bearing the brunt of popular dissatisfaction with Musharraf's regime.
"This (emergency) will build strain between him and the military," Askari said. "The image of the military as a national institution is likely to be sullied. This is the gravest hit on the image of the military," added Rais.
But in the immediate future Musharraf will use his emergency powers to ruthlessly cement his grip on power, analysts said. "We are going to witness a reign of oppression," said Rais.
The End
According to a newspaper comment, November 3 will go down as another dark day in Pakistan's political and constitutional history. It can be safely said that this is one of General Pervez Musharraf's gravest errors of judgment, and a sorry indication that nothing has been learnt from the mistakes of the past. The imposition of emergency rule and suspension of the 1973 Constitution announced on Saturday is only going to destroy the very institutions that this country crucially needs for evolving into a true democracy, particularly the judiciary, media and parliament. It will further fracture an already weakened federation, alienate those who have grievances against the centre, such as the Tribal Areas and Balochistan, and push whatever little credibility the government had down a very deep abyss. Such a draconian step will also have little effect on our ability to fight terrorism and extremism. It would be fair to assume that the emergency has been imposed only to target two institutions: the judiciary and the media but it may well have poisonous effects on another: i.e. parliament. Those in the ruling PML-Q will be foolish not to realise that the legislative branch of government has received a death blow as well since the imposition has come from an army general.
The fact that the official statement carrying the emergency announcement used 'army chief' rather than president to refer to the authority behind the promulgation is significant as well indicating that perhaps what we have on our hands is a de facto martial law -- one in which the assemblies will function but only to give the impression that democracy has not been hampered in any manner. Furthermore, the timing of the proclamation, a few days before an expected judgment on a case that could have potentially declared the president's re-election null and void, is such that very few people in this country, or overseas for that matter, will buy the argument that it has been imposed to arrest the deteriorating law and order situation and to allow the government to focus on fighting extremism and militancy. It will be difficult to remove public doubts that it has only been imposed to target a superior judiciary that has finally found some spine and is carrying out its constitutional role of acting as a watchdog on the executive, which in Pakistan's case was often overstepping its constitutionally-defined authority. As for the media, the fact that private television channels were blacked out for the better part of Saturday is a grim indication of the government's intentions. However, here too, such bans are essentially counter-productive and will be seen by ordinary Pakistanis as a desperate act of a regime bent on shielding itself from criticism.
Meanwhile, the Chief Justice of Pakistan has been informed that his services were no longer required. In any case, the promulgation of a provisional constitutional order would mean that most of the judges of the Supreme Court who had in recent weeks taken a brave and defiant stand against the government and the military would be pushed aside and not be invited to take a fresh oath; many would in all probability decline such an offer. As news of the imposition of emergency spread, eight members of the Supreme Court defiantly struck down the proclamation, which could well trigger off a new stand-off. The future is not looking good -- not least because the president's move is bound to have massive repercussions and a severe response from all segments of civil society. Such acts are indefensible at any time, more so in this day and age.
Most of the analysts think that this act of the president will backfire, but the tribesmen think otherwise. According to survey report, Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf's bid to cling to power is set to backfire badly, destabilising a key US ally, spawning new militant attacks and straining relations with the army, analysts said.
Musharraf, who led a military coup in 1999, imposed a state of emergency in nuclear-armed Pakistan on Saturday in response to what he said was a hostile judiciary and the growing menace of Al-Qaeda and pro-Taliban militants.
But analysts said Musharraf's main concern was to purge the Supreme Court of anti-government judges ahead of a ruling on the legality of his victory in a controversial October 6 presidential election.
Far from enhancing his fight against Islamists, who have regrouped in Pakistan's tribal belt to plot attacks on the West, emergency rule will strengthen their cause and increase the likelihood of attacks, they added.
"Musharraf is riding a rudderless ship in a big and unpredictable political storm," Rasul Baksh Rais, a political scientist at Lahore's University of Management Sciences, said.
"He may survive for a while but he will be swept away by the tide of anger, popular resentment and forces that wish to restore some degree of decency and normalcy to Pakistan," he said.
In the wake of the emergency declaration, Musharraf's security forces rounded up several key opposition leaders and lawyers and sealed off much of the capital to prevent protests.
He has also imposed tough curbs on the media, barring all criticism of himself and the government.
Analysts said the situation was closer to martial law than an emergency, with the suspension of many fundamental rights, and added that the opposition would not tolerate such a situation for long.
"It is a second coup by Musharraf. We are heading for a very uncertain time because this coup will be challenged by political parties," Hasan Askari, former head of political science at Punjab University, said.
The key figures will be former premier Benazir Bhutto, who returned from exile on October 18 and has not ruled out a mooted power-sharing deal with Musharraf, and fundamentalist opposition leader Maulana Fazlur Rehman, who has criticised the president's actions.
"This martial law will stay in place until either this parliament or the next parliament by a two-thirds majority indemnifies it. That is where the role of Bhutto and Fazlur Rehman becomes critical," Najam Sethi, editor of an English daily said.
The forces of Islamic militancy will also hit back against Musharraf, stepping up a wave of attacks that has killed more than 400 people since a government raid on the radical Red Mosque in Islamabad in July, Rais said.
"This move will impact the fight against militancy and terrorism. If you suppress popular democracy you only create opportunities for militancy and armed struggle," he said.
But analysts said the biggest danger is from within -- the military that backed Musharraf's original coup and has supported him for the past eight years in his US-backed campaign against the militants.
The 500,000-strong army has been demoralised not only by a series of attacks on security forces and abductions by militants, but also by bearing the brunt of popular dissatisfaction with Musharraf's regime.
"This (emergency) will build strain between him and the military," Askari said. "The image of the military as a national institution is likely to be sullied. This is the gravest hit on the image of the military," added Rais.
But in the immediate future Musharraf will use his emergency powers to ruthlessly cement his grip on power, analysts said. "We are going to witness a reign of oppression," said Rais.
The End
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