Probable future of Turkey
M. Orhan Tarhan
October 16, 2007
It is not easy to predict the future of any country, even those that are stable like the United States and Canada. It is a lot more risky to try to predict the future of a fast changing country as Turkey. That is why the adjective “probable” in the title was necessary.
Between 1923 and 1938 Ataturk tried to convert the backward and religious Ottoman Turkey to a modern, educated, laic, survivable society. Religious laws were abolished and replaced by modern civil laws, women were educated and emancipated. Religious schools were closed and replaced by secular schools teaching much mathematics, sciences, foreign (European) languages, and philosophy. The metric system was adopted and Sunday became the weekly rest day. The Arabic alphabet was replaced by a phonetic Latin alphabet. The Turkish language was ridded from Arabic and Persian words and new words were produced from Turkish roots.
The best graduates of Turkish high schools were sent to the best European universities to start up a nucleus of a national industry that was mostly completed by 1938.
Then Ataturk left after him a blue print for a survivable society that should eventually become part of the Western Civilization.
When Ataturk died in 1938 Turkey was a very much changed country. It was smart enough to stay out of the War until the end. It was on its way to become a Western country.
People who worked with Ataturk really never understood why he did what he did. After his death they proceeded to dismantle his reforms one after another. Ismet Inonu broke the ban on religious schools by building the first Iman-Preacher schools. These religious schools multiplied like bunnies during the last 70 years and made it possible for a religious party to come to power. This year, the Justice and Development Party (AKP in Turkish) won the election with 46 %. They are now changing the constitution. They want eventually Turkey to be an Islamic Republic. But they know that that kind of sudden change will certainly be stopped by the military. A few years ago the present prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that they will be successful, because they will make changes in small increments and allow them to be assimilated, before making the next change. Thus the present constitution will have probably a small change. There are rumors that Turkey in time will look like Malaysia. So a reporter from Milliyet went there and investigated the truth of this rumor. He reported on September 29, 2007 the following: The Malaysians were saying, “When we told them ‘If you want an Islamic state, let us change the constitution, they did definitely not accept it, because they knew that it would generate reaction and would be rejected. That is why, at the beginning the changes were very soft and very slow. But now that they got the power, they are no longer that soft” It seems that this salami tactic method is not an invention of the Turkish Islamists, that all Islamists are using it.
The AKP has been quite successful in reducing the inflation rate and in increasing the growth rate. Under them, Turkey should become a wealthy nation, but can it be also a Western nation and part of the Western Civilization? I doubt that very much.
As a result of the secular schooling of the last 80 years, Turkey is a highly industrialized country. It produces its own TVs, cars, sells software to Europeans, and Turkish civil engineering companies working abroad bring over billions of dollars every year. This may continue for a while as an inertia of the secular education. But as the proportion of imam-Preacher graduates over secular graduates increases in the country, the scientific mentality of young people producing the above-mentioned wealth will slowly disappear. Turkey will fail to become part the Western Civilization. It will be a rich Islamic state that will be less and less industrialized, and consequently, less and less rich. It will be a good market for Europe. It will never be part of Europe. It will no longer be a survivable society . It will no longer be the country that Ataturk and his followers dreamed of.
What happened to the enlightened people produced through the Ataturk reforms? Where are they? They have no party representing them in the parliament. There are the secular, Social-Democrat, People’s Republican Party of Deniz Baykal (The old Ataturk party that was hijacked by the Socialists), the secular, Fascist-tainted, National Movement Party of Bahceli, and the Islamist AKP of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, but no secular democratic party devoted to free-market economics and to Ataturk principles. Early in the year, when several millions of citizens (mostly women) met in impressive meetings shouting “Turkey shall remain secular”, they did not have any apparent leaders. What happened to the potential political power represented by those millions of people? Turks should ask themselves these questions and perhaps answer them.
Between 1923 and 1938 Ataturk tried to convert the backward and religious Ottoman Turkey to a modern, educated, laic, survivable society. Religious laws were abolished and replaced by modern civil laws, women were educated and emancipated. Religious schools were closed and replaced by secular schools teaching much mathematics, sciences, foreign (European) languages, and philosophy. The metric system was adopted and Sunday became the weekly rest day. The Arabic alphabet was replaced by a phonetic Latin alphabet. The Turkish language was ridded from Arabic and Persian words and new words were produced from Turkish roots.
The best graduates of Turkish high schools were sent to the best European universities to start up a nucleus of a national industry that was mostly completed by 1938.
Then Ataturk left after him a blue print for a survivable society that should eventually become part of the Western Civilization.
When Ataturk died in 1938 Turkey was a very much changed country. It was smart enough to stay out of the War until the end. It was on its way to become a Western country.
People who worked with Ataturk really never understood why he did what he did. After his death they proceeded to dismantle his reforms one after another. Ismet Inonu broke the ban on religious schools by building the first Iman-Preacher schools. These religious schools multiplied like bunnies during the last 70 years and made it possible for a religious party to come to power. This year, the Justice and Development Party (AKP in Turkish) won the election with 46 %. They are now changing the constitution. They want eventually Turkey to be an Islamic Republic. But they know that that kind of sudden change will certainly be stopped by the military. A few years ago the present prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that they will be successful, because they will make changes in small increments and allow them to be assimilated, before making the next change. Thus the present constitution will have probably a small change. There are rumors that Turkey in time will look like Malaysia. So a reporter from Milliyet went there and investigated the truth of this rumor. He reported on September 29, 2007 the following: The Malaysians were saying, “When we told them ‘If you want an Islamic state, let us change the constitution, they did definitely not accept it, because they knew that it would generate reaction and would be rejected. That is why, at the beginning the changes were very soft and very slow. But now that they got the power, they are no longer that soft” It seems that this salami tactic method is not an invention of the Turkish Islamists, that all Islamists are using it.
The AKP has been quite successful in reducing the inflation rate and in increasing the growth rate. Under them, Turkey should become a wealthy nation, but can it be also a Western nation and part of the Western Civilization? I doubt that very much.
As a result of the secular schooling of the last 80 years, Turkey is a highly industrialized country. It produces its own TVs, cars, sells software to Europeans, and Turkish civil engineering companies working abroad bring over billions of dollars every year. This may continue for a while as an inertia of the secular education. But as the proportion of imam-Preacher graduates over secular graduates increases in the country, the scientific mentality of young people producing the above-mentioned wealth will slowly disappear. Turkey will fail to become part the Western Civilization. It will be a rich Islamic state that will be less and less industrialized, and consequently, less and less rich. It will be a good market for Europe. It will never be part of Europe. It will no longer be a survivable society . It will no longer be the country that Ataturk and his followers dreamed of.
What happened to the enlightened people produced through the Ataturk reforms? Where are they? They have no party representing them in the parliament. There are the secular, Social-Democrat, People’s Republican Party of Deniz Baykal (The old Ataturk party that was hijacked by the Socialists), the secular, Fascist-tainted, National Movement Party of Bahceli, and the Islamist AKP of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, but no secular democratic party devoted to free-market economics and to Ataturk principles. Early in the year, when several millions of citizens (mostly women) met in impressive meetings shouting “Turkey shall remain secular”, they did not have any apparent leaders. What happened to the potential political power represented by those millions of people? Turks should ask themselves these questions and perhaps answer them.
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