Ron Paul, Scientific Polling, and His Support Base

The purpose of this article is to take a look at why scientific polls must be unscientific in this election(and quite possibly all others)concerning the Ron Paul Presidential campaign.

Lets get an understanding on how these polls work. The people polled fit into this criteria: they must have a land-line telephone, they must be registered with the Republican party with a prior voting history. Most of the polls offer only the "front-runners" which must by nature be unfair. The media and the polling companies select the front-runners through polls in which they, in most cases, only give the front-runners as options. Hmmmm. Since the other candidates are marked as other, they must choose a "top-tier" candidate, unless they name another not listed. This sounds like a prime example of media bias, where the media chooses a candidate or candidates and pushes them as the only choices, while ignoring all others, so the people never hear other candidates message. Thank God for the internet! Lets get to why these polls cannot be accurate for this election.

We will first start with the young people, those who have not had a chance to vote. Many of them who are away at college do not have land lines, they like cell phones. Many of those not away at college live with their parents so their parents would be the ones polled. Ron Paul’s message is resonating extremely well with this age group, who are angry with the war and the social security they are forced to pay into but are told they will never see. This group tends to have that youthful fire and gets involved like no other age group.

Lets take a look at the "sleepers"; those whom have become disgruntled by crooked politicians and the same old lie. Some of these people were once active in the political spectrum, but gave up on the idea of a candidate who was actually honest. Others have never voted and have never really been interested, nobody ever caught there attention. Then comes Ron Paul, shocking them out of their political apathy with the idea that we are individuals, not groups; and as individuals, we ought to have equal liberties; that the federal government has no right to tell them they cannot cut down a tree on their own property; that our rights come from our Creator, not from our legislator.

Ahhh... cannot forget the third party voters; the Independents, Constitutionalists and Libertarians. Why? Well, Ron Paul's proposed legislation to get rid of the income tax and the IRS for starters(I think that's an idea we all like). Another reason is his desire to get rid of wasteful government programs and bureaucracies, Fema, Homeland Security, the FBI, the CIA, etc. Don't forget he wants us out of the IMF, WTO, and the UN.

Minorities love him for his views of equality, in that we are all individuals, not groups, i.e. blacks, Hispanics, whites, etc. and we should be treated the same. He also opposes the Federal War on Drugs due to the fact that it is not working and it is unconstitutional and unfairly targets minorities. One more thing, Ron Paul opposes welfare, the democrat supported program that makes people poor and encourages single parent households, destroying communities all over the nation. Instead Paul supports abolishing the Federal Reserve and bringing back a sound monetary policy with the gold-standard, which would increase wealth and stop inflation(we could save our money again!). That is a major reason why many are in favor of Dr. Paul.

Then we have the Democrat switchers, angry with the war in Iraq and the Democratic candidates views on it.

You have the old-school conservatives. The Robert Taft and Ronald Reagan lovers whom they see a reflection of in Rep. Paul. His pro stance on the 2nd Amendment never wavering. His conservatism (you know, to conserve, or, to not waste, or, wise spending, opposite of prodigal) setting him apart from all other opponents, with the congressional track record to prove it, is a huge issue with them.

We could also look at the retired and active military(Ron Paul has received more donations from this group than any other candidate with over 26% of the contributions the 2nd quarter) who love a man with unparalleled character and a politician(statesman, really) who actually upholds his oath to office, the same oath that they have taken, to defend and uphold the Constitution. He has also served as a flight surgeon during the Vietnam war. They see honor in him and a genuine concern for his countrymen that they may not see in the other candidates.

Do not forget the Christian factor. Ron Paul's stand against abortion, a stand that he has neither flipped nor flopped on, it is sure to draw them in. His desire to get rid of the Department of Education and make schools responsible to the parents, as well as his support for tax breaks for home and private schoolers, is sure to attract many. There also is the fact that Ron Paul does not use Christianity, though he is Christian, to get himself elected, something that people must respect.

In many cases, such as the "newbies", the "sleepers", the "switchers", and the "third party", the voters will not be polled, creating a huge margin of error.

It should be noted that although Ron Paul may be far behind in the "scientific" polls, which only question around 1,000 people(what if the other 200+ million feel differently?), he is very much in the lead in the open polls online, some of which having nearly 100,000 votes, and these are polls in which you cannot vote more than once. He has also won more straw polls than any other Republican candidate, straw polls are not done on the internet. He is the only Republican who is gaining in campaign funds, and it would be safe to say that no candidate has more loyal supporters. If you add it all up, it equals a very serious chance for a Ron Paul candidacy.

So I will leave you with an excerpt from a speech about our meddling in the middle east that Ron Paul made before congress on November 15th, 2000, in which he shows his ability to foresee coming disaster and his eagerness to do something about it:

"Our current foreign policy does nothing more than stir the flames of hatred on both sides... As the world becomes less stable due to currency, trade and other economic reasons, this region will become even more volatile. We should expect higher oil prices. Hatred towards America will continue to escalate, and the United States security will continue to diminish due to the threat of terrorist attacks... The greatest threat to our national security is our own bad policy."