Military Action on Iran Likely to Come
Joseph McHugh
November 26, 2005
I was recently talking to an acquaintance of mine, an acquaintance from Saudi Arabia, who is connected with their government. When the subject of Iran came up, a look of gravity came over the man?s face. ?Something must be done,? he intoned. ?We are all afraid.? Now this man is no friend of President George Bush or Israel, but he expressed the desire to see Israel do something. What an irony: The enemies of Israel looking for Israel to save the world. It is a perfect illustration of Ayn Rand?s point that the world depends on its producers, while simultaneously loathing them. Doubtless, the kingdom of Saudi Arabia would condemn any attack on Iran by Israel in the strongest of terms, while secretly breathing a sigh of relief.
What this conversation illustrates, too, is just how uneasy people are in the Middle East with the prospect of a nuclear-armed Iran. The fear on my acquaintance?s face demonstrates just how seriously are taken Iran?s threats. This is no bluff.
Right now we are being dragged through what seems like an endless round of negotiations between Iran on the one side, and Europe and the U.S on the other side. China and Russia are in the middle, although generally favoring Iran. Threats are being made to refer Iran to the U.N Security Council if negotiations don?t pan out. The negotiations have dragged on for so long because Iran has repeatedly reneged on past agreements, frustrating and stymieing negotiators. The latest proposal would have Russia handle the enrichment of Uranium and ship it to Iran, thereby ensuring that it is used only for peaceful purposes. But Iran has insisted on total control of the process.
If negotiations don?t work, don?t expect much from the United Nations. They were not exactly profiles in courage when it came to Iraq, passing toothless resolution after toothless resolution.
With the serious fears being raised by even its Arab neighbors, it looks like action against Iran is inevitable. The pressure on Israel and the United States by Iran?s Arab neighbors will force the issue. And remember, the Bush administration still considers Iran part of the ?Axis of Evil.?
Expect military action to be taken before 2008, Bush?s last year in office. Probably it will come in 2007, after the midterm elections are over. While Israel is the most likely candidate to attack, American forces may also be involved. Fears of a wider war erupting seem unfounded as Bush has effectively neutralized two terrorist states, Afghanistan and Iraq, and is now in the process of neutralizing another Syria. Iran will be surrounded, and cut off.
And if the U.S or Israel act against Iran, you can expect loud public condemnation, and quiet private glee.
What this conversation illustrates, too, is just how uneasy people are in the Middle East with the prospect of a nuclear-armed Iran. The fear on my acquaintance?s face demonstrates just how seriously are taken Iran?s threats. This is no bluff.
Right now we are being dragged through what seems like an endless round of negotiations between Iran on the one side, and Europe and the U.S on the other side. China and Russia are in the middle, although generally favoring Iran. Threats are being made to refer Iran to the U.N Security Council if negotiations don?t pan out. The negotiations have dragged on for so long because Iran has repeatedly reneged on past agreements, frustrating and stymieing negotiators. The latest proposal would have Russia handle the enrichment of Uranium and ship it to Iran, thereby ensuring that it is used only for peaceful purposes. But Iran has insisted on total control of the process.
If negotiations don?t work, don?t expect much from the United Nations. They were not exactly profiles in courage when it came to Iraq, passing toothless resolution after toothless resolution.
With the serious fears being raised by even its Arab neighbors, it looks like action against Iran is inevitable. The pressure on Israel and the United States by Iran?s Arab neighbors will force the issue. And remember, the Bush administration still considers Iran part of the ?Axis of Evil.?
Expect military action to be taken before 2008, Bush?s last year in office. Probably it will come in 2007, after the midterm elections are over. While Israel is the most likely candidate to attack, American forces may also be involved. Fears of a wider war erupting seem unfounded as Bush has effectively neutralized two terrorist states, Afghanistan and Iraq, and is now in the process of neutralizing another Syria. Iran will be surrounded, and cut off.
And if the U.S or Israel act against Iran, you can expect loud public condemnation, and quiet private glee.
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