Turkey’s Presidential Elections
Rizwan Ghani
August 14, 2007
Like Turks let us all wait and see how things unfold in the first round of Turkish presidential elections while all eyes are on secular opposition and the military.
First round of election is due on 20th of August and Turkey’s ruling AK party has confirmed FM Abdullah Gul’s nomination for the office of president and Gul has himself confirmed that he is running for the president.
Gul’s earlier nomination in May ’07 presidential elections sparked a protests from country’s secular opposition resulting in the annulment of presidential elections that in turn forced PM Erdogan to call early elections to end political standoff between military, establishment and the lawmakers.
There is a broad consensus that Gul is a deserving candidate for the office of country’s president but the unending controversy over his nomination since May this year could have been easily avoided if AKP had pitched another candidate because the office of the president is symbol of national unity and Gul is proving too ‘divisive’. By supporting Gul, AKP has not only put public’s mandate at stake but has also endangered country’s balance of power, already tethering precariously amidst history of four military interventions. Reportedly, Gul’s nomination has alarmed the military-backed secular establishment.
Ankara however rejects this assertion and claims Gul’s nomination is result of public demand that brought AKP to power in the first place. And AKP’s call for early election instead of replacing Gul left no doubt in mind of Turkey’s power centers that return of AKP backed by public mandate would mean re-nomination of Gul for the office.
Even if AKP’s line of argument is accepted, still persistence of opposition’s allegations Erdogan and his party have failed to dispel allegations of the opposition claiming that AKP is pursing the agenda of scraping country’s secular traditions and it is seeking unbridled power so that it could impose Islamic ways on Turkish society.
In this regard, Erdogan and AKP itself have failed to show to the international community that four articles of country’s constitution guarantee Turkey’s secularist status that cannot be undone with parliamentary majority or pro-Islamic president. The secular provisions in Turkish constitution like American freedom of speech article cannot be amended.
It is opined that Turkey’s secular leadership is politically exploiting AKP’s Islamic orientation to cover its policy drawbacks and failures. It is believed that country’s secular forces failed to offer an election manifesto matching AKP’s liberal agenda of social, economic and political developments that has delivered results at the grass roots in last four years. On the contrary it is opined that public rejected secularist calls for expansion of theaters, alcoholism, cinemas and casino as elitist demands having no relation to daily life challenges at grassroots.
In short, Turkey’s secular elite failed to act as credible alternate to country ruling party in last four years and is now using issues that lack wide spread public support to resist Gul’s election. Experts opine that seculars need to work on their policies to win public support and win power through the ballot boxes instead of looking for back door collusions. In wake of growing Turkish election transparency as endorsed by the EU and the Western media it is about time country’s secular elite start connecting with the public to win the next elections.
In all probability somewhere down the line, the process of electing Turkey’s president may resurface to end the debate. In all probability, the country will opt for direct presidential elections. For the time being AKP will have to rely on support of Nationalist Action Party (NAP) to secure the two third votes in the parliament for Gul’s victory. In case of any problems, there will be a third round of voting where simple majority will decide the victory. Reportedly, Cihan Pacaci, a senior member of NAP has upheld party’s pledge support to reach a quorum to prevent a new political crisis.
AKP’s decision to go ahead with Gul could make things difficult for party leadership as they walk a tight rope. Despite predictions of AKP heading for another showdown with secularists and military, there is a perception that Gul might wriggle through to make country’s president. Something echoed by Pacaci who reportedly said he does not see chaos ahead. If country’s press is a yardstick then like last surveys there are all the chances that Gul might be Turkey’s next president.
A risk AKP is willing to take because the job of country’s president is critical to overall control of the state. The post is largely ceremonial but the incumbent has the power to veto legislative bills and government appointments.
Reportedly, Gul has asked for meetings with opposition leaders to seek their support, which the critics believe is a belated move. He should have reached out and met the power weeks ago if he is to work as ‘balancer’ and symbol of unity. It is equally important that Gul dispel perceptions based on opposition voices that his candidacy posed serious threat to the secular principles of the country and will not contribute towards peace and stability in the country. “It is not appropriate to have a president who has problems with the founding philosophy Turkish Republic”, remarked Deniz Baykal, leader of Turkey’s main opposition pro-secular People’s party.
Once again, seculars have played their cards wrong. Reportedly, Turkey’s constitution was changed as part of country’s ongoing efforts to win EU membership. Moreover, provision of secular state in country’s constitution is recent phenomenon. The fact of the matter is Erdogan has already said that country’s quest for EU membership is on top of his government’s agenda and there will be no compromise on country’s secular status. These reassurances from country’s PM heading democracy and as policy head are sufficient to dispel apprehensions over the issue.
Finally, in all probability, Gul will be country’s next president and since US like rest of the world has already, congratulated Erdogan on his victory followed by candid British support for Turkey things might actually turnout to lot simpler than they appear today. Turkey will be on its road to democracy with Gul joining system of checks and balances. However, like politics nothing can be taken for sure until result of election are announced. Therefore, like Turks let us all wait and see how things unfold in the first round of Turkish presidential elections while all eyes are on secular opposition and the military.
First round of election is due on 20th of August and Turkey’s ruling AK party has confirmed FM Abdullah Gul’s nomination for the office of president and Gul has himself confirmed that he is running for the president.
Gul’s earlier nomination in May ’07 presidential elections sparked a protests from country’s secular opposition resulting in the annulment of presidential elections that in turn forced PM Erdogan to call early elections to end political standoff between military, establishment and the lawmakers.
There is a broad consensus that Gul is a deserving candidate for the office of country’s president but the unending controversy over his nomination since May this year could have been easily avoided if AKP had pitched another candidate because the office of the president is symbol of national unity and Gul is proving too ‘divisive’. By supporting Gul, AKP has not only put public’s mandate at stake but has also endangered country’s balance of power, already tethering precariously amidst history of four military interventions. Reportedly, Gul’s nomination has alarmed the military-backed secular establishment.
Ankara however rejects this assertion and claims Gul’s nomination is result of public demand that brought AKP to power in the first place. And AKP’s call for early election instead of replacing Gul left no doubt in mind of Turkey’s power centers that return of AKP backed by public mandate would mean re-nomination of Gul for the office.
Even if AKP’s line of argument is accepted, still persistence of opposition’s allegations Erdogan and his party have failed to dispel allegations of the opposition claiming that AKP is pursing the agenda of scraping country’s secular traditions and it is seeking unbridled power so that it could impose Islamic ways on Turkish society.
In this regard, Erdogan and AKP itself have failed to show to the international community that four articles of country’s constitution guarantee Turkey’s secularist status that cannot be undone with parliamentary majority or pro-Islamic president. The secular provisions in Turkish constitution like American freedom of speech article cannot be amended.
It is opined that Turkey’s secular leadership is politically exploiting AKP’s Islamic orientation to cover its policy drawbacks and failures. It is believed that country’s secular forces failed to offer an election manifesto matching AKP’s liberal agenda of social, economic and political developments that has delivered results at the grass roots in last four years. On the contrary it is opined that public rejected secularist calls for expansion of theaters, alcoholism, cinemas and casino as elitist demands having no relation to daily life challenges at grassroots.
In short, Turkey’s secular elite failed to act as credible alternate to country ruling party in last four years and is now using issues that lack wide spread public support to resist Gul’s election. Experts opine that seculars need to work on their policies to win public support and win power through the ballot boxes instead of looking for back door collusions. In wake of growing Turkish election transparency as endorsed by the EU and the Western media it is about time country’s secular elite start connecting with the public to win the next elections.
In all probability somewhere down the line, the process of electing Turkey’s president may resurface to end the debate. In all probability, the country will opt for direct presidential elections. For the time being AKP will have to rely on support of Nationalist Action Party (NAP) to secure the two third votes in the parliament for Gul’s victory. In case of any problems, there will be a third round of voting where simple majority will decide the victory. Reportedly, Cihan Pacaci, a senior member of NAP has upheld party’s pledge support to reach a quorum to prevent a new political crisis.
AKP’s decision to go ahead with Gul could make things difficult for party leadership as they walk a tight rope. Despite predictions of AKP heading for another showdown with secularists and military, there is a perception that Gul might wriggle through to make country’s president. Something echoed by Pacaci who reportedly said he does not see chaos ahead. If country’s press is a yardstick then like last surveys there are all the chances that Gul might be Turkey’s next president.
A risk AKP is willing to take because the job of country’s president is critical to overall control of the state. The post is largely ceremonial but the incumbent has the power to veto legislative bills and government appointments.
Reportedly, Gul has asked for meetings with opposition leaders to seek their support, which the critics believe is a belated move. He should have reached out and met the power weeks ago if he is to work as ‘balancer’ and symbol of unity. It is equally important that Gul dispel perceptions based on opposition voices that his candidacy posed serious threat to the secular principles of the country and will not contribute towards peace and stability in the country. “It is not appropriate to have a president who has problems with the founding philosophy Turkish Republic”, remarked Deniz Baykal, leader of Turkey’s main opposition pro-secular People’s party.
Once again, seculars have played their cards wrong. Reportedly, Turkey’s constitution was changed as part of country’s ongoing efforts to win EU membership. Moreover, provision of secular state in country’s constitution is recent phenomenon. The fact of the matter is Erdogan has already said that country’s quest for EU membership is on top of his government’s agenda and there will be no compromise on country’s secular status. These reassurances from country’s PM heading democracy and as policy head are sufficient to dispel apprehensions over the issue.
Finally, in all probability, Gul will be country’s next president and since US like rest of the world has already, congratulated Erdogan on his victory followed by candid British support for Turkey things might actually turnout to lot simpler than they appear today. Turkey will be on its road to democracy with Gul joining system of checks and balances. However, like politics nothing can be taken for sure until result of election are announced. Therefore, like Turks let us all wait and see how things unfold in the first round of Turkish presidential elections while all eyes are on secular opposition and the military.
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