California November 8 Special Election: Will Republican Voter Turnout Be Suppressed?

Increasingly frustrated with a conservative governor unable to rally Californians to support his agenda, Republican voter turnout is expected to be suppressed in the November 8 California Special Election. By pulling many of the advertisements that featured the governor and limiting the governor?s personal appearances to only friendly audiences already pre-disposed to his initiatives, some insiders speculate that Governor Schwarzenegger and proponents of his initiatives are all but conceding defeat. In another sign of possible desperation about the prospects of his agenda, Schwarzenegger yesterday vowed to propose new initiatives in the future.

Analysis: Lower than usual Republican voter turnout is expected in California and across the nation as a result of disillusionment with President Bush?s administration and a scandal-ridden Republican-controlled Congress. This disillusionment has arisen from a series of events including the following:

• The indictment of I. Lewis ?Scooter? Libby, Assistant to President Bush and Chief of Staff to Vice President Dick Cheney, was the first indictment of a senior White House official since the Reagan Administration.
  
  
• Republican Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist is being investigated for insider trading by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
  
  
• Carl Rove, Deputy Chief of Staff to President Bush and the administration?s chief strategist, is under investigation for possible involvement in the disclosure of the identify of CIA covert agent Valerie Plame ? and the related obstruction of the grand jury investigation into the disclosure. President Bush?s own father called the outing of CIA agents a ?despicable act of treason against the United States.?
  
  
  
• Former Republican Majority Leader Tom DeLay was indicted for spearheading a conspiracy to launder campaign contributions to Texas Republicans in violation of campaign finance laws.
  
  
• While tentatively pleased with the nomination of Catholic Jon Alito to the U.S. Supreme Court, Bush?s California conservative base was severely disappointed with the prior nomination of Bush?s close associate Harriet Miers. The nomination was withdrawn amidst accusations of cronyism and it has given rise to intense skepticism about whether President Bush is a ?true advocate? for the conservative cause.
  
  
• The Bush administration has abandoned its apparent commitment to shut down illegal immigration, opting instead, for new laws that would allow guest worker status for immigrants.
  
  
• While the California Republican Party, especially the so-called Christian Right, was expected to rally to the Governor?s cause after his endorsement of Proposition 73, the Governor?s focus on his four ?preferred? initiatives, coupled with his refusal to actively campaign on behalf of Proposition 73, has left many Christian conservatives dissatisfied.
  
  

For all of the foregoing reasons, there is strong evidence to support the media reports and expert predictions that Republican voter turnout in the California November 8 special election will be suppressed.