The Inevitability of Iraq’s Breakup into Three Countries
Rauf Naqishbendi
July 18, 2007
Iraq Study Group, Baker-Hamilton predicated success of his plan for the Iraqis’ national reconciliation though he acknowledged that the Iraqi people and government are divided on religious and ethnic fault lines. In his own words, “Iraqi leaders often claim that they do not want a division of the country, but we found that key Shia and Kurdish leaders have little commitment to national reconciliation.” He also stated, “Many of Iraq ’s most powerful and well-positioned leaders are not working toward a united Iraq .” That is a true statement vouching the inevitability of Iraq’s breakup into three countries - Kurds in the north, Sunnis in the middle and Shiites in the south. The majority of the Iraqi people embrace this idea, and it would have been a statesmanly act if Mr. Baker were to propose it. After all, there will be no peace in Iraq without the Iraqis’ consensus.
Iraq’s population is mainly made up of Arab Moslem Shiites, Arab Moslem Sunnis and Kurds. Shiites are the majority, making up sixty percent of the population; they favor Iranian Shiites as they wish to distance themselves from the Sunni Moslems. Given a choice they would rather be part of Iran than Iraq. The Shiites main leaders have spent years in exile in Iran during which they were indoctrinated, trained and sponsored by the Ayatollah’s regime, and when Saddam’s regime was ousted they made their way back to Iraq and initiated the mobilization of their people. Shiites are the most fundamentalist of the Iraqis in their religious views; they desire an Islamic regime modeled after that of the Iranian Ayatollah’s. They have been very much excluded in the political realm since the inception of Iraq and they suffered tragically during Saddam’s regime. Now that they have been given the opportunity, they use their vote in a democratic way to win power, dominate the government, and stabilize Iraq with the goal of America withdrawing its forces from Iraq. Once that happens, they will declare Iraq an Islamic state and force their views on the country regardless of opposition from Kurds and Sunnis. The Shiites’ ambition and highest priority is to form at any cost an Islamic fundamentalist regime where people live by their rule or die by their swords.
Arab Sunni Moslems make up about twenty percent of Iraq’s population. They have been the dominant power in Iraq since its formation as a republic, ruling the country through force and tyranny. They reacted violently to the toppling of their last man, Saddam, and are responsible for the current political upheaval and terrorism in the country. Sunnis are nostalgic for Saddam’s day - they don’t believe in civilized and democratic processes since all they desire is to be the undisputed dominant power. If they had their way, they would relive Saddam’s dark days and force Iraq under the power of yet another tyrant of their own.
Kurds, like Sunnis, make up about twenty percent of Iraq’s population. They have been deprived of freedom for centuries and have revolted against every Iraqi government since the inception of Iraq. Saddam committed genocide against them and used every weapon at his disposal - conventional, chemical and biological. Since the end of the Gulf War, most of Kurdistan has been protected by the Gulf War coalition as part of the "No Fly Zone". Now, Kurds value their freedom from Saddam, having already formed their regional government, and taken their freedom to the voting box to elect their first democratic parliament. They manage their own armed forces, security forces, hospitals, several large universities, and the list goes on.
Kurds welcomed the Iraqi liberation mission of the United States and fought alongside American troops to topple Saddam and his regime. While terrorism is an impediment to rebuilding in Iraq’s Arabia, yet since the Iraqi liberation Kurdistan has been the most tranquil part of Iraq with the rebuilding of their country moving along on a large scale. Unlike the rest of Iraq, with an unemployment rate of more than forty percent, Kurds are enjoying growth and nearly full employment. Kurds have been taking comfort in the deployment of American troops, even though their alliance with America has caused them to be deprecated by the rest of Islam world. Kurds favor secular government with well-defined separation of state and faith.
Kurds have been dreaming of their own sovereign state for centuries and they resent their subordination to Arabs. They never wanted to be a part of Iraq for Iraq is and always will be a reminder of the calamities of genocide and their other past tragedies. The Kurds’ ambition and highest priority is an independent Kurdish state, and nothing less will please them.
Thus the threads that make up Iraq’s population have more in conflict than they have in common. The preservation of Iraq as one country will prove to be as wrongful and immoral as the formation of Iraq in the first place. Therefore, America should not pursue this impossible task, risking American lives and money only to see the regrettable consequences on display before the world. The Bush administration must realize that imperiously forcing Iraq to stay as one country will not be a panacea for the diseases that have plagued the greatly divided Iraqi people; instead it will only defer the impending calamity which will shake Mesopotamia, and devastate the world.
Iraq’s population is mainly made up of Arab Moslem Shiites, Arab Moslem Sunnis and Kurds. Shiites are the majority, making up sixty percent of the population; they favor Iranian Shiites as they wish to distance themselves from the Sunni Moslems. Given a choice they would rather be part of Iran than Iraq. The Shiites main leaders have spent years in exile in Iran during which they were indoctrinated, trained and sponsored by the Ayatollah’s regime, and when Saddam’s regime was ousted they made their way back to Iraq and initiated the mobilization of their people. Shiites are the most fundamentalist of the Iraqis in their religious views; they desire an Islamic regime modeled after that of the Iranian Ayatollah’s. They have been very much excluded in the political realm since the inception of Iraq and they suffered tragically during Saddam’s regime. Now that they have been given the opportunity, they use their vote in a democratic way to win power, dominate the government, and stabilize Iraq with the goal of America withdrawing its forces from Iraq. Once that happens, they will declare Iraq an Islamic state and force their views on the country regardless of opposition from Kurds and Sunnis. The Shiites’ ambition and highest priority is to form at any cost an Islamic fundamentalist regime where people live by their rule or die by their swords.
Arab Sunni Moslems make up about twenty percent of Iraq’s population. They have been the dominant power in Iraq since its formation as a republic, ruling the country through force and tyranny. They reacted violently to the toppling of their last man, Saddam, and are responsible for the current political upheaval and terrorism in the country. Sunnis are nostalgic for Saddam’s day - they don’t believe in civilized and democratic processes since all they desire is to be the undisputed dominant power. If they had their way, they would relive Saddam’s dark days and force Iraq under the power of yet another tyrant of their own.
Kurds, like Sunnis, make up about twenty percent of Iraq’s population. They have been deprived of freedom for centuries and have revolted against every Iraqi government since the inception of Iraq. Saddam committed genocide against them and used every weapon at his disposal - conventional, chemical and biological. Since the end of the Gulf War, most of Kurdistan has been protected by the Gulf War coalition as part of the "No Fly Zone". Now, Kurds value their freedom from Saddam, having already formed their regional government, and taken their freedom to the voting box to elect their first democratic parliament. They manage their own armed forces, security forces, hospitals, several large universities, and the list goes on.
Kurds welcomed the Iraqi liberation mission of the United States and fought alongside American troops to topple Saddam and his regime. While terrorism is an impediment to rebuilding in Iraq’s Arabia, yet since the Iraqi liberation Kurdistan has been the most tranquil part of Iraq with the rebuilding of their country moving along on a large scale. Unlike the rest of Iraq, with an unemployment rate of more than forty percent, Kurds are enjoying growth and nearly full employment. Kurds have been taking comfort in the deployment of American troops, even though their alliance with America has caused them to be deprecated by the rest of Islam world. Kurds favor secular government with well-defined separation of state and faith.
Kurds have been dreaming of their own sovereign state for centuries and they resent their subordination to Arabs. They never wanted to be a part of Iraq for Iraq is and always will be a reminder of the calamities of genocide and their other past tragedies. The Kurds’ ambition and highest priority is an independent Kurdish state, and nothing less will please them.
Thus the threads that make up Iraq’s population have more in conflict than they have in common. The preservation of Iraq as one country will prove to be as wrongful and immoral as the formation of Iraq in the first place. Therefore, America should not pursue this impossible task, risking American lives and money only to see the regrettable consequences on display before the world. The Bush administration must realize that imperiously forcing Iraq to stay as one country will not be a panacea for the diseases that have plagued the greatly divided Iraqi people; instead it will only defer the impending calamity which will shake Mesopotamia, and devastate the world.
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