What Can Turkish Elections Bring?
M. Orhan Tarhan
July 14, 2007
On July 22 Turkey is going to have parliamentary elections. This year, the election is very important, because the laicists (secularists) will try to stop the Islamist AK Party of Recep Tayyip Erdogan to secure its hold on the Turkish state and on life in Turkey. This election will decide what kind of country Turkey will be in the future: a secular, survivable country following Ataturk’s modernizing reforms or an Islamic country that has no future.
Let us be clear on one thing: The Islamist AK Party is not made of the “good guys” as the American and European press are portraying them to be. They are the slow-movement acting kind of the same Islamists like those we are fighting against. Their only difference with the followers of Bin Laden is that they are no terrorist. Erdogan is not a democrat, as he is masquerading to be. By his own words, to him “Democracy is a means, not an aim.” And the laicists (secularists) Turks are not authoritarian people. They are the real democrats in Turkey, “the good guys” who consider democracy as an aim. I do not understand why American and European media turn things upside down.
However, Turkey is very unfortunate to have no attractive political party.
The presently ruling AK Party is Islamist , in spite of their promise of abiding by the constitution and swearing by their honor that they will follow Ataturk’s reforms, their real plans are to turn Turkey to an Islamic country, more or less like Iran. To them lying, cheating, and breaking their promises are not a sin, as long as it is “for the good of Islam.” However, as a ruling party, they had some important successes. They improved the economy, especially they reduced the inflation rate from 50 -70 % to single digit. They finally succeeded in selling several government-owned companies which social democrats would not want to sell for 40 years. They passed many laws required by the European Union (EU). Their government worked. In spite of the writing on the wall, Mr. Erdogan is still insisting to make Turkey a EU-member. AK Party keeps on regularly increase its membership by receiving the brain-washed graduates of the Imam-Preacher schools, which are a sort of Madrassa. The AK Party implements its Islamization program very slowly, waiting that each step is “digested” before the next one is introduced, but the Islamization is being applied all the time in small dozes. That’s why they are very dangerous. People do not always notice what is being changed in their lives.
The original party of Ataturk, the People’s Republican Party,(CHP in Turkish) had been hijacked by socialists or social democrats some 40-50 years ago. Their head, Deniz Baikal is an old-fashion socialist who believes in government-owned industries. It is even doubtful whether he believes in market economics. He was a very poor opposition to the AK Party during the last five years. But he is a real democrat, except inside his own party. Finally he is not considered to be a particularly intelligent nor a particularly competent leader. His platform this year is full of generalities. He certainly does not have any vision for the Turkish people if he wins the election. Being a secularist is not enough. He would not object to an EU membership, but he is not very enthusiastic about it. Some of the smaller leftist parties have joined the CHP in order not to waste their votes behind the 10 % threshold.
The two right-of center parties recently merged to be called Demokrat Parti (DP). This new party is also a secular party. They believe in market economics. They too have no vision for the future of Turkey and their leader is not yet proven. The component parties of DP were fired in 2002 by the electorate for incompetence and corruption. I do not know whether they did anything at all since then to correct themselves.
As we can see, the Turkish voter has a poor choice of parties to vote for. The two top parties are either Islamist or just addicted to failed ideas of the past, though not authoritarian. The secular Turkish voter will have to hold his nose and vote for either the CHP or the DP, just in order to stop the AK Party. Although the secular parties are not ideal parties, they will preserve Ataturk’s reforms and the modernity and enlightenment of the people. Like National Socialism (I lived six years in it) Islamization is a one way street, once you are caught in it, you can’t escape from it.
What are the possibilities that the election can bring?
(Case 1) AKP gets enough votes to form a government by itself. The Islamization of Turkey will continue, probably beyond the point of no return. There will be no economic shock, the stock market will continue to prosper. Because the imam-Preacher schools produce a steady supply of Islamist citizens, future elections will be insured for the AK Party.
(Case 2) AKP does not get enough votes to form a government by itself, but receives the highest votes of all parties. Then AKP forms a coalition with another party. If that party is a strong opposition, it might control AKP’s Islamization attempts and might force it to live up to its oat of office. AKP still will not allow the Imam-Preacher schools to be touched. In general, coalitions do not work, because the partners have opposing views.
(Case 3) AKP is not top vote getter. Then the remaining secular parties form a coalition. In this case the first thing they must do should be to close all the imam-preacher schools and convert them to secular government schools. By doing that they will stop the continuous automatic increase of brain-washed Islamists in the country. If they don’t close the Imam-Preacher schools, they will have just temporarily delayed Turkey’s Islamization.
(Case 4) A secular party gets enough votes to form a government by itself. Unfortunately, that is not probable at all at this time.
Although the secular parties in Turkey are not very brilliant, the real democratic power of the land is in its population, especially in the Turkish women who were so prominent in the recent million+ meetings. It looks like the July 22 elections will be highly attended. All my Turkish friends have changed their vacation plans to be able to vote from their own districts. That seems to be very important. Let us wish a very successful election to the secular Turkish people.
Let us be clear on one thing: The Islamist AK Party is not made of the “good guys” as the American and European press are portraying them to be. They are the slow-movement acting kind of the same Islamists like those we are fighting against. Their only difference with the followers of Bin Laden is that they are no terrorist. Erdogan is not a democrat, as he is masquerading to be. By his own words, to him “Democracy is a means, not an aim.” And the laicists (secularists) Turks are not authoritarian people. They are the real democrats in Turkey, “the good guys” who consider democracy as an aim. I do not understand why American and European media turn things upside down.
However, Turkey is very unfortunate to have no attractive political party.
The presently ruling AK Party is Islamist , in spite of their promise of abiding by the constitution and swearing by their honor that they will follow Ataturk’s reforms, their real plans are to turn Turkey to an Islamic country, more or less like Iran. To them lying, cheating, and breaking their promises are not a sin, as long as it is “for the good of Islam.” However, as a ruling party, they had some important successes. They improved the economy, especially they reduced the inflation rate from 50 -70 % to single digit. They finally succeeded in selling several government-owned companies which social democrats would not want to sell for 40 years. They passed many laws required by the European Union (EU). Their government worked. In spite of the writing on the wall, Mr. Erdogan is still insisting to make Turkey a EU-member. AK Party keeps on regularly increase its membership by receiving the brain-washed graduates of the Imam-Preacher schools, which are a sort of Madrassa. The AK Party implements its Islamization program very slowly, waiting that each step is “digested” before the next one is introduced, but the Islamization is being applied all the time in small dozes. That’s why they are very dangerous. People do not always notice what is being changed in their lives.
The original party of Ataturk, the People’s Republican Party,(CHP in Turkish) had been hijacked by socialists or social democrats some 40-50 years ago. Their head, Deniz Baikal is an old-fashion socialist who believes in government-owned industries. It is even doubtful whether he believes in market economics. He was a very poor opposition to the AK Party during the last five years. But he is a real democrat, except inside his own party. Finally he is not considered to be a particularly intelligent nor a particularly competent leader. His platform this year is full of generalities. He certainly does not have any vision for the Turkish people if he wins the election. Being a secularist is not enough. He would not object to an EU membership, but he is not very enthusiastic about it. Some of the smaller leftist parties have joined the CHP in order not to waste their votes behind the 10 % threshold.
The two right-of center parties recently merged to be called Demokrat Parti (DP). This new party is also a secular party. They believe in market economics. They too have no vision for the future of Turkey and their leader is not yet proven. The component parties of DP were fired in 2002 by the electorate for incompetence and corruption. I do not know whether they did anything at all since then to correct themselves.
As we can see, the Turkish voter has a poor choice of parties to vote for. The two top parties are either Islamist or just addicted to failed ideas of the past, though not authoritarian. The secular Turkish voter will have to hold his nose and vote for either the CHP or the DP, just in order to stop the AK Party. Although the secular parties are not ideal parties, they will preserve Ataturk’s reforms and the modernity and enlightenment of the people. Like National Socialism (I lived six years in it) Islamization is a one way street, once you are caught in it, you can’t escape from it.
What are the possibilities that the election can bring?
(Case 1) AKP gets enough votes to form a government by itself. The Islamization of Turkey will continue, probably beyond the point of no return. There will be no economic shock, the stock market will continue to prosper. Because the imam-Preacher schools produce a steady supply of Islamist citizens, future elections will be insured for the AK Party.
(Case 2) AKP does not get enough votes to form a government by itself, but receives the highest votes of all parties. Then AKP forms a coalition with another party. If that party is a strong opposition, it might control AKP’s Islamization attempts and might force it to live up to its oat of office. AKP still will not allow the Imam-Preacher schools to be touched. In general, coalitions do not work, because the partners have opposing views.
(Case 3) AKP is not top vote getter. Then the remaining secular parties form a coalition. In this case the first thing they must do should be to close all the imam-preacher schools and convert them to secular government schools. By doing that they will stop the continuous automatic increase of brain-washed Islamists in the country. If they don’t close the Imam-Preacher schools, they will have just temporarily delayed Turkey’s Islamization.
(Case 4) A secular party gets enough votes to form a government by itself. Unfortunately, that is not probable at all at this time.
Although the secular parties in Turkey are not very brilliant, the real democratic power of the land is in its population, especially in the Turkish women who were so prominent in the recent million+ meetings. It looks like the July 22 elections will be highly attended. All my Turkish friends have changed their vacation plans to be able to vote from their own districts. That seems to be very important. Let us wish a very successful election to the secular Turkish people.
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