Iraq: Its Demography and Geography as Impediments to Peace and Stability
Rauf Naqishbendi
July 08, 2007
Insurgents in Iraq have become a major headache for the Bush administration, and an impediment to the peace and democracy so dear to many Iraqis. Nonetheless, the true question is not what to do with insurgents but what to do with Iraq itself - with the demography and geography that have been Iraq's defects since its birth as a country.
Geographically, Iraq is surrounded by its neighboring countries including Syria, Iran and Turkey. Tyranny under the Ba'th party has ruled Syria for almost half a century, and the Syrian government has been notorious for sponsoring terrorists against Lebanon, Israel and now Iraq. For decades the Syrian and Iraqi governments have not been friends but rather rivals. Iran, for its part, has been ruled by Moslem Shiite fundamentalists since the ousting of the former Shah of Iran. Iran, like Syria, has been behind the Hezbollah in Lebanon and other extreme Moslem groups such as Jihad, and has been known for state-sponsored terrorism for decades. Like Syrians, Iranians are free only to cherish their leaders and glorify their rule. Turkey, on the other hand, is a weird and a shaky democracy with its government dominated by those who claim to be of a sectarian Moslem religious group, but the recent rise in anti-Semitic sentiments among Turks, and their refusal to aid coalition forces in the war against Saddam has proven otherwise. Furthermore, Turkish authorities have been practicing barbaric ruling against the Kurds, who make up one-third of their population, for years, depriving them of the most basic human rights including speaking in their mother tongue. Notably, the human rights violations of all three of these neighbors of Iraq have been documented by respectable human rights organization such as Amnesty International for having some of the dirtiest records for many years.
The problem doesn't end with negative influence alone. Iran and Iraq have been quarreling over their territorial integrity since the end of British colonialism in Iraq. During the 1980's, Iraq and Iran fought one of the bloodiest wars in the history of the Middle East, and thus millions of lives were claimed on both sides. Since the breakup of the Ottoman Empire, Turks have been looking to intrude into Iraq to satisfy their false and unrealistic territorial claims on northern Iraqi provinces near their border. Also, Turks oppose the fair share representation of Iraqi Kurds in the Iraqi government fearing that their counterparts in Turkey will demand the same.
Common sense dictates that tyrants are interested in seeing their counterparts around as opposed to something different. These regimes realize their illegitimacy as they have been maintaining their power through force and torture rather than a democratic process where the people are responsible for electing their political officials. As one can imagine, a democratic Iraq will not be in the best interests of these regimes, and they well know that a democratic Iraq will entice their people to demand the same, shake off the yoke of their repression, and end their illegitimate power. Since in a sense a democratic Iraq with peace and prosperity will mark the end of these shaky governments, they are therefore maximizing their efforts to entice more chaos and fuel instability in Iraq as they fear for their own fate more than the fate of the Iraqi people.
Demographically, the threads that make up the fabric of the Iraqi population are a very powerful force working against unity in Iraq, making Iraq's territorial integrity questionable and unjustifiable. Iraq's population is made up mainly of Arabs and Kurds, two different nationalities each with their own distinct and unique national attributes. Iraq has been ruled by Arabs since its formation as a republic. Kurds as a distinct nation have fought their subjugation to the Arabs, and rightly demanded their statehood since the inception of Iraq. Kurds have been tortured and genocide has been committed against them by Iraqi Arabs, resulting in the Kurds' resentment of any forced union as a nation with the Arabs. Arabs themselves are divided; the majority in Iraq are Shiites and they feel closer to their fellow Shiites in Iran than the Sunni Arabs in Iraq. They too have suffered under Saddam and never had their fair share of political power. The Sunni Arabs have been dominant in Iraq, and now, as their last man, Saddam, has been ousted they are not willing to share power with the rest of the Iraqis. Therefore, they are behind the insurgencies and thus the progress of peace and stability in Iraq is not only barred by the differences of its people groups alone, but also by the outright actions of some of its own people to sabotage it.
Iraq's own geography and demography are its fatal enemies. Geographically, the only way to deal with this paramount dilemma is to encourage regime changes in Iraq's neighbors from hostile anarchy to democratic regimes. However, given our gloomy success in winning peace in Iraq this endeavor could be suicidal and regrettable. As far as Iraq's demography is concerned, imposing a merger nation on Iraq's different ethnic and religious groups will blow up in the face of its organizers, prolonging the Iraqi people's suffering and bringing all out civil war closer with every minute that passes. So far neither of these two problems has been dealt with effectively, therefore causing the Iraqi people to prepare themselves for more suffering, and America to consider staying even longer in Iraq, incurring greater war expenditures and casualties.
Geographically, Iraq is surrounded by its neighboring countries including Syria, Iran and Turkey. Tyranny under the Ba'th party has ruled Syria for almost half a century, and the Syrian government has been notorious for sponsoring terrorists against Lebanon, Israel and now Iraq. For decades the Syrian and Iraqi governments have not been friends but rather rivals. Iran, for its part, has been ruled by Moslem Shiite fundamentalists since the ousting of the former Shah of Iran. Iran, like Syria, has been behind the Hezbollah in Lebanon and other extreme Moslem groups such as Jihad, and has been known for state-sponsored terrorism for decades. Like Syrians, Iranians are free only to cherish their leaders and glorify their rule. Turkey, on the other hand, is a weird and a shaky democracy with its government dominated by those who claim to be of a sectarian Moslem religious group, but the recent rise in anti-Semitic sentiments among Turks, and their refusal to aid coalition forces in the war against Saddam has proven otherwise. Furthermore, Turkish authorities have been practicing barbaric ruling against the Kurds, who make up one-third of their population, for years, depriving them of the most basic human rights including speaking in their mother tongue. Notably, the human rights violations of all three of these neighbors of Iraq have been documented by respectable human rights organization such as Amnesty International for having some of the dirtiest records for many years.
The problem doesn't end with negative influence alone. Iran and Iraq have been quarreling over their territorial integrity since the end of British colonialism in Iraq. During the 1980's, Iraq and Iran fought one of the bloodiest wars in the history of the Middle East, and thus millions of lives were claimed on both sides. Since the breakup of the Ottoman Empire, Turks have been looking to intrude into Iraq to satisfy their false and unrealistic territorial claims on northern Iraqi provinces near their border. Also, Turks oppose the fair share representation of Iraqi Kurds in the Iraqi government fearing that their counterparts in Turkey will demand the same.
Common sense dictates that tyrants are interested in seeing their counterparts around as opposed to something different. These regimes realize their illegitimacy as they have been maintaining their power through force and torture rather than a democratic process where the people are responsible for electing their political officials. As one can imagine, a democratic Iraq will not be in the best interests of these regimes, and they well know that a democratic Iraq will entice their people to demand the same, shake off the yoke of their repression, and end their illegitimate power. Since in a sense a democratic Iraq with peace and prosperity will mark the end of these shaky governments, they are therefore maximizing their efforts to entice more chaos and fuel instability in Iraq as they fear for their own fate more than the fate of the Iraqi people.
Demographically, the threads that make up the fabric of the Iraqi population are a very powerful force working against unity in Iraq, making Iraq's territorial integrity questionable and unjustifiable. Iraq's population is made up mainly of Arabs and Kurds, two different nationalities each with their own distinct and unique national attributes. Iraq has been ruled by Arabs since its formation as a republic. Kurds as a distinct nation have fought their subjugation to the Arabs, and rightly demanded their statehood since the inception of Iraq. Kurds have been tortured and genocide has been committed against them by Iraqi Arabs, resulting in the Kurds' resentment of any forced union as a nation with the Arabs. Arabs themselves are divided; the majority in Iraq are Shiites and they feel closer to their fellow Shiites in Iran than the Sunni Arabs in Iraq. They too have suffered under Saddam and never had their fair share of political power. The Sunni Arabs have been dominant in Iraq, and now, as their last man, Saddam, has been ousted they are not willing to share power with the rest of the Iraqis. Therefore, they are behind the insurgencies and thus the progress of peace and stability in Iraq is not only barred by the differences of its people groups alone, but also by the outright actions of some of its own people to sabotage it.
Iraq's own geography and demography are its fatal enemies. Geographically, the only way to deal with this paramount dilemma is to encourage regime changes in Iraq's neighbors from hostile anarchy to democratic regimes. However, given our gloomy success in winning peace in Iraq this endeavor could be suicidal and regrettable. As far as Iraq's demography is concerned, imposing a merger nation on Iraq's different ethnic and religious groups will blow up in the face of its organizers, prolonging the Iraqi people's suffering and bringing all out civil war closer with every minute that passes. So far neither of these two problems has been dealt with effectively, therefore causing the Iraqi people to prepare themselves for more suffering, and America to consider staying even longer in Iraq, incurring greater war expenditures and casualties.
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