Ethiopia needs more “traitor” democrats like Lidetu Ayalew

The current political developments inside Ethiopia are relatively encouraging. For the most part, there seems to be a closing of the gap between radical Amhara political parties and Tigrai parties. Even though some Amhara supporters of Amhara political parties have often labeled leaders like Beyene Petros and Lidetu Ayalew “traitors,” it is becoming more obvious that Amhara leaders like Ayalew are breaking historical ethnic barriers & political barriers which would lead to the stabilization of the uncompromising nature of Ethiopian ethnic politics.

A new political movement, which Ayalew’s party labeled the “Third Way” appears genuine and progressive for the most part. Still some Ethiopians deservingly feel that this movement has the potential to fail by creating an apologetic opposition party that can lose urban support due to the ruling party’s economic failures in the urban – which no one is ready to forgive while having to pay 60 dollars for 1 quintal of teff. Still generally, Ayalew’s UEDP-Medhin opposition party is doing what nobody has ever tried in Ethiopian history, which is an Amhara political group that is ideologically the opposite of a Tigrayan-led political group, for the first time, putting itself in the shoes of the former to create a middle ground where blind, identity & ethnic politics are minimized. In a time when even good and bad economic news in Ethiopia have become political tools ahead of national interests, such stance should be welcomed by all who care about the country. The fruits of Mr. Ayalew’s stance have already been evident since his party is gaining the respect of many Tigrayans and many non-Tigrayan ruling party supporters. But such never seen before progressive stance will be exposed to insults from the rigid parts of the opposition who will be in an offensive to stay alive - which indirectly means keeping the old status quo of intolerant, divisive, identity & hate politics and school of thought alive.

What should the likes of UEDP-Medhin do to overcome insults?

Certainly initiating a new ideology and movement in Ethiopia is not the last part of the solution. It is just the beginning of a marathon to create a vital ground where democratic institutions and leadership can take off. It will be necessary that UEDP-Medhin and similar opposition parties understand that they are in a long struggle not just against a ruling party and militant oppositions, but also against a whole political & general culture that has failed Ethiopia for years.

Indeed many Ethiopians are not aware of this specific issue and the backward school of thought that have plagued the country’s development for years. UEDP-Medhin and other opposition leaders would need to educate many Ethiopians like new. The whole history of Ethiopian politics can be used as an example of what has been going wrong, so using the substantial examples is necessary to support progressive arguments. Just writing one book about a new movement will not be enough to convince a population which breaths suspicion in and out like air.

Such new movements are also a test to the maturity of Ethiopian voters. Many critics have said that some pro-opposition Ethiopians voted against the ruling party but not for the opposition or not because they liked the policies of the opposition parties in the 2005 multi-party elections. This is very arguable. Yet many critics have said that politics & political decisions of the public in Ethiopia are still manipulated by what some call “emotion politics” but not dictated by one’s preference of a party’s core principles. Emotion politics in Ethiopia is of course related to identity politics. Thus the test for the urban Ethiopian voters would be if they will be influenced by the age-old uncompromising politics practiced by the extreme wings of the opposition or if they will be open-minded to moderates like Ayalew and his UEDP-Medhin party. The theory that Ethiopian voters are still infected by emotion politics will be proved to correct only if UEDP-Medhin loses urban supporters as the result of the propaganda insults UEDP-Medhin receives from the followers of the most zealous factions of the opposition. In general, UEDP-Medhin’s core policies, national interests, vision and missions are the same as most other "Ethiopian nationalist" opposition parties. Thus despite the progressive “Third Way” movement, since UEDP-Medhin’s core national policies are still the same as before, it would be interesting if voters (mostly Amhara voters) are emotionally manipulated to NOT support UEDP. So the maturity and democratic decision making capabilities of Ethiopian voters will be in the spotlight.

What does it all mean for Ethiopia?

Most importantly, for Oromo Ethiopians, the current hostility between Ethiopian politicians is not much different from what Oromos have seen in the last century because it is yet another round of competition & games between Amharas and Tigrayans. However this time, ideologically, the current Tigrai-led ruling party holds very similar concepts & views like the Oromo elites, organizations and liberation fronts. Certainly, economically the Oromia region is still being stripped off and deprived almost as much as it has always been during the last century. There are some slight improvements but with the resources Oromia has, it should have been one of the most flourishing regions in Africa. Yet the ideological resemblance that brought the Tigrayan and Oromo movements very close together in 1990 has persisted to the 21st century despite the lack of authority of the later. The fact that Oromo organizations like OLF are playing the "enemy of my enemy is my friend" game with All-Amhara parties should not hide the obvious fact that the Tigrayan-led ruling party is the closest group ever to any Oromo pro-self-determination organization. That is why compared to 20, 30 and more years before; separatists like OLF are not carrying out as many and as frequent attacks currently. (ONLF attacks are the exceptions since they are related to the political developments in Mogadishu) Compared to the frequent Western Oromia attacks from 1965-90 and compared to the Bale guerrilla movements of the 60s & early 70s, it is accurate to say the current relative reduction of the pro-Oromo liberation guerrilla attacks correlates to the reduction in ideological differences between Oromo liberations forces vis-à-vis Ethiopian successive governments – making the current ruling party the closest leadership to pro-"Oromia self-determination" elites ideologically. This closing of the gap between the interests of Oromo liberation forces and an Ethiopian ruling party, together with the closing of the gap between the Tigrayan and Amhara politicians (as the UEDP-Medhin movement indicates) can bring better democratic governance that is actually practiced instead of just being written on paper. But more “traitors” are needed to stabilize the politics in the country.

For democracy in Ethiopia to develop more elite Oromo “traitors,” Tigrayan “traitors” and more Amhara “traitors” are necessary. There are many Ethiopians from each ethnic group who oppose some stances of their own ethnic leaders but don't speak out about it. Tigrayan Ethiopians who do not support the current TPLF ruling sub party’s decisions on vital things like the selling out of Ethiopia’s access to the sea and the lack of space & means for opposition parliamentarians, should speak out and condemn the ruling party. Having seen the backlash against Lidetu Ayalew, such Tigrayans should also be ready to sacrifice whatever reputation they might have had and continue to struggle peacefully. The same way, Oromo Ethiopians who do not support some policies of Oromo “liberation” organizations should speak out and ask them who they are liberating and from what exactly are they liberating. Clearly, the Oromo population is the most mixed one in Ethiopia and courageous Oromo elites should speak out against the negligence practiced by some Oromo organizations who disregard the cultural, social and historical relationship between Oromos and northern Ethiopians. Also an Oromo "traitor-to-be" can easily give the failed case of Eritrea as a good example of what a country that is formed as a result of hate, bitterness, revenge and ethnic/national ascendancy will be like in the end as well as how such a “liberated” province-turned-nation would eventually end up in an endless war with its former alleged “colonizer.” In addition, there needs to be more Amhara “traitors.” Some devoted and well-known Amhara politicians need to condemn the uncompromising nature of some All-Amhara organizations & leaders. Some Amhara parties who try to paint the picture that the self-determination policy is only supported by the ruling EPRDF and not by the rest of other non-Amhara Ethiopian organizations should be given a wake up call from scholarly All-Amhara politicians who are brave & bold enough to break the barrier and show that Shewa Amharas demeaning "the question of nationalities" must stop. Such courageous Amhara “traitors" should indicate that the current constitution was created by most ethnicities in Ethiopia including those non-Amhara groups in the lifeless AFD sorority – and thus not just by the EPRDF ruling party. Also such "traitor" democratcs from all ethnicities should stand up against divisive, hate, and blind politics. In general the more “traitors” rise up in Ethiopian politics, the more united the country will be, the less polarized the politics becomes and the much faster Ethiopian democracy will develop.