Future of Israeli Politics: Chaos as always
Rizwan Ghani
May 02, 2007
In all probability, for now Olmert has survived the pressure to resign in the aftermath of Lebanon war report. Report has blamed country’s top leadership for loss of lives and face. However, Olmert has promised to “fix all mistakes”.
FM Livni, urged Olmert to resign apparently in a bid to save the future of Kadima party heading country’s coalition govt. Experts opine that at this stage party would have lost the election.
Her critics however feel that Kadima is facing internal power struggle and Livni is part of the process. Reportedly, Livni did show willingness to be a candidate for PM if Olmert resigned. Shortly, 29 MP including Peres have managed to avert Olmert’s “domestic” ouster by overwhelming supporting him in party meeting.
Experts opine that Olmert is on the borrowed time. The detailed War report is due by end of July and if he doesnt resign now the report will be his death warrant.
That is one reason Livni who as co-founder of Kadima wanted him to resign now so that “she could stay in power to carryout report’s recommendations”. The party majority however decided to maintain status quo by keep Olmert country’s PM.
It would be interesting to see the future course of action on part of Livni who also alluded to her resignation. Who could have made history by becoming the first female PM of the country? Just in time to beat presidential candidate Royal heading to make history in France.
Israeli politics is a most complex maze of political parties. The history shows that it has been ruled by coalition govt.’s who mostly last less than three years. PM’s around year and a half. Olmert has almost completed a year as PM and his ouster: immediate or in coming months, in wake of past practices should not surprise anyone.
Reportedly, at least three members from the Kadima and the coalition parties are ready to replace Olmert. Opinion polls predict that former PM Nethanyahu would sweep victory if elections were held.
Experts opine that Olmert’s fate is sealed the only reason he is still there is lack of anticipation of strong reaction to war report and necessary preparation within party and collation partners to replace the PM. That would only be effective with total overhaul of senior management level. It is something that needs time.
In all probability in coming weeks there will be lot of in house cleaning in addition to string of resignations that have already picked up to brace for July/August shake over, unless Olmert decides to quit voluntarily in coming days.
It may appear that Kadima may have managed the spillover for the time being but Netanyahu is still out there. As the PM in waiting with reports showing, that he could win the elections at this stage he would not let the power struggle within Kadima pass away just like that. He will make full use of scathing findings to his political advantage and that could snowball into events that could force Olmert to resign sooner than expected.
Livni is reportedly enjoying strong ratings at this stage. She has emerged unscathed from the aftermath of war report that has virtually affected everyone who matters at the top. She has strong record as country’s FM. However, she as women lacks the power and backing to be the country’s PM that in all probability is reserved for generals and other national heroes.
Such assertion may not be utterly unfounded in wake of latest reports showing Israeli women are being forced to travel in the back of public. It reflects growing intolerance for the freedom of women in local society.
In wake Olmert’s resignation if she manages to be the PM it will be nothing short of a miracle. The credit for such a development will go to her not the system. She co-created the Kadima, and today it is her political acumen and maneuvering that has brought her to a stage where she is positioned to be the next PM. But in all probability as a female that is the farthest she could have come in country’s political setup that in all probability still draws its strength from religion.
Otherwise, also one Israeli expert opined on BBC that chaos is the hallmark of Israeli politics and current developments are no different.
Finally, Olmert may have been successful in resisting the pressure to resign but in all probability, his career as country’s PM is over. Livni by asking Olmert to resign has kept the political initiative with Kadima that otherwise would have been exploited by Likud’s Netanyahu. However, in the process if she has emerged stronger or otherwise only time will tell. However, it is now clear that it is the start of end game for Olmert. Will Olmert resign at his own or wait for the detailed report that only he can tell.
FM Livni, urged Olmert to resign apparently in a bid to save the future of Kadima party heading country’s coalition govt. Experts opine that at this stage party would have lost the election.
Her critics however feel that Kadima is facing internal power struggle and Livni is part of the process. Reportedly, Livni did show willingness to be a candidate for PM if Olmert resigned. Shortly, 29 MP including Peres have managed to avert Olmert’s “domestic” ouster by overwhelming supporting him in party meeting.
Experts opine that Olmert is on the borrowed time. The detailed War report is due by end of July and if he doesnt resign now the report will be his death warrant.
That is one reason Livni who as co-founder of Kadima wanted him to resign now so that “she could stay in power to carryout report’s recommendations”. The party majority however decided to maintain status quo by keep Olmert country’s PM.
It would be interesting to see the future course of action on part of Livni who also alluded to her resignation. Who could have made history by becoming the first female PM of the country? Just in time to beat presidential candidate Royal heading to make history in France.
Israeli politics is a most complex maze of political parties. The history shows that it has been ruled by coalition govt.’s who mostly last less than three years. PM’s around year and a half. Olmert has almost completed a year as PM and his ouster: immediate or in coming months, in wake of past practices should not surprise anyone.
Reportedly, at least three members from the Kadima and the coalition parties are ready to replace Olmert. Opinion polls predict that former PM Nethanyahu would sweep victory if elections were held.
Experts opine that Olmert’s fate is sealed the only reason he is still there is lack of anticipation of strong reaction to war report and necessary preparation within party and collation partners to replace the PM. That would only be effective with total overhaul of senior management level. It is something that needs time.
In all probability in coming weeks there will be lot of in house cleaning in addition to string of resignations that have already picked up to brace for July/August shake over, unless Olmert decides to quit voluntarily in coming days.
It may appear that Kadima may have managed the spillover for the time being but Netanyahu is still out there. As the PM in waiting with reports showing, that he could win the elections at this stage he would not let the power struggle within Kadima pass away just like that. He will make full use of scathing findings to his political advantage and that could snowball into events that could force Olmert to resign sooner than expected.
Livni is reportedly enjoying strong ratings at this stage. She has emerged unscathed from the aftermath of war report that has virtually affected everyone who matters at the top. She has strong record as country’s FM. However, she as women lacks the power and backing to be the country’s PM that in all probability is reserved for generals and other national heroes.
Such assertion may not be utterly unfounded in wake of latest reports showing Israeli women are being forced to travel in the back of public. It reflects growing intolerance for the freedom of women in local society.
In wake Olmert’s resignation if she manages to be the PM it will be nothing short of a miracle. The credit for such a development will go to her not the system. She co-created the Kadima, and today it is her political acumen and maneuvering that has brought her to a stage where she is positioned to be the next PM. But in all probability as a female that is the farthest she could have come in country’s political setup that in all probability still draws its strength from religion.
Otherwise, also one Israeli expert opined on BBC that chaos is the hallmark of Israeli politics and current developments are no different.
Finally, Olmert may have been successful in resisting the pressure to resign but in all probability, his career as country’s PM is over. Livni by asking Olmert to resign has kept the political initiative with Kadima that otherwise would have been exploited by Likud’s Netanyahu. However, in the process if she has emerged stronger or otherwise only time will tell. However, it is now clear that it is the start of end game for Olmert. Will Olmert resign at his own or wait for the detailed report that only he can tell.
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