US, Cairo (Sharm-El-Sheikh) Iraq Summit and Iran
Rizwan Ghani
May 02, 2007
Iran has shown a positive gesture to be part of the process but its significance may be dwarfed in face of larger realities. On the contrary, skeptics opine that Iran should ready itself for extensive blame game in future including strong probability of an attack on its nuclear energy plants. Future may not that gloomy but there is little to discard such extreme skepticism.
There is a divided opinion over Iran’s decision to attend the summit. It is widely believed that Iran has opted for a flawed strategy that could lead the country into complex political situation with adverse consequences and in all probability Bush regime will now have an excuse to blame Iran for (its) failures in Iraq.
It is a strong view but skeptics believe that likely Iran-US meeting is nothing more than a “photo” opportunity for public consumption in America. It is a situation similar to Bush looking for military Czar to command Iraq and Afghan theatre. The only difference is Iran has walked in but the American (retired) general’s stayed away.
Iran must have considered likely drawbacks but in all probability, its five diplomats held hostage might have brought them to Cairo in addition to political and strategic considerations. However, there is wide scale consensus that dealing with Bush regime that lacks credibility is a greater risk at this stage than ever before and Iran should have stayed out.
It is also opined that Bush administration’s “signaling” of possible diplomatic contact with Iran is a diversion to diffuse domestic pressure in wake of failing troop surge strategy, ISG report and delay likely fall of Malki govt. in wake of reports that Sunni cabinet ministers are likely to resign in coming weeks. Earlier six ministers from Sadar’s party have already resigned. Restricting the meeting just to Iraq has fueled such speculation.
It has been argued that Iran is participating in the summit because for Iran, Iraq, its security and stability are very important. Iranian moderates represented by Larnijani in this meeting are also eager to show the world that they care and want to improve Iran’s image that so far is associated with so called hardliner Ahmadinejad. They would also like to use the opportunity to settle misplaced apprehensions about its peaceful nuclear programme for energy generation to the UNSC members outside UN platform.
Rice however has ruled out any dialogue on Iran’s nuclear programme and in her interview. She while talking to ABC said that Iran’s nuclear issue will only be dealt through EU, platform. She also said that if she will meet Iranian delegation the meeting would only be about Iraq. In that, she told that she would ask Iran to stop alleged of flow of arms and ammunition from their country to Iraq , seek their help to control border crossing by the foreign fighters, stop provision of advance IEDs and support for militia within Iraq. Similarly, there were reports that Iran will be asked to withdraw its alleged support for Hezbollah and Hamas.
Larnjani, has however rejected all these claims as baseless allegations. In wake of any independent verification, this line of dialogue will otherwise lead nowhere. And reports from Washington showing that Bush administration will be “firm but polite” with Iran aren’t steps in right direction if White House is seriously seeking a headway on Iraq through regional cooperation.
Close observers believe that Bush regime is not seeking resolution of Iraq problem in immediate terms and in all probability fate of Iraq war will be decided by the next US president.
It response to question that in addition to recognition of its peaceful nuclear energy programme what could be the other Iranian demands?
An expert from Tehran University while talking to Arab TV Channel said that threats of military actions against Iran should be stopped. Iran should be recognized as a major player in the region. And its humiliation should be stopped. He added that since both countries have a long history of good relationship therefore such policies should be reviewed in the interest of both countries.
Despite assertions that unlike America, Iran by opting to avail the possible opportunity of having a diplomatic contact with America has shown maturity and sincerity to restore peace in the region it is hard to logically support Iran attending the meeting. It is going to lose more and could have serious consequences for the region and global peace:-
The prospects of Iraq solution are brighter in light of UN Resolutions and Saudi King Abdullah’s Arab Peace Plan backed by regional states, Muslims world at large and global community than handful states engaging at individual level in Cairo at this stage to resolve the issue.
Ayad Allawi ex-Iraqi PM has already said that without involving regional states like Egypt, UAE, Saudi Arabia and Jordan the regional and global Iraq issue cannot be solved amicably. He opines that transparency, consultancy and how to proceed on Iraq are important to resolve the Iraq issue. Without a (reliable) guarantor, and national reconciliation there is little hope on Iraq.
There are strong reports that Malki govt. may not last for long. Despite American pressure Malki has so far resisted to change country’s political system that is still sectarian based instead of true democracy based on equal representation. Current electoral system is based on sectarian and tribal affiliations instead of performance based election.
Malki is simply refusing to develop relations with neighboring countries. He is unwilling to reach out to regional states.
Oil draft has not been passed into law. There is no progress on debathification to bring on board disenfranchised minorities into mainstream political system and jobs as part of across the board reconciliation to restore security.
Experts opine that he is using American troops to extend his regime, keep Shia in power and deepen skepticism in new system in otherwise strong minorities by keeping them out of country’s decision-making process and jobs.
Thus in a way he exacerbating current political situation and is equally instrumental in pushing the country towards infighting over struggle for survival, political space and jobs that is now mistaken for a sectarian war. It is dangerous game that in addition to bringing death and destruction but could divide the country in the long run.
Iran as part of regional community has stronger safety against any military misadventure and support for its peaceful nuclear programme. ME has already supported Iran’s peaceful nuclear programme and supports nuclear free ME.
Can Iran help in current Iraq situation? If viewed realistically, at tactical level Iran like any other neighboring country has little power to improve the internal affairs of Iraq. Iran like rest of the world including regional states and Muslim Ummah it can only extend moral and financial support from a distance to stabilize Iraq as and when American forces execute phased withdrawal schedule.
At strategic level Iran has nothing to do with Iraq war which is all about oil. Bush regime knows the plan and without (phased) withdrawal of American troops from Iraq security situation will not change in Iraq. Iran, war on terrorism and Afghan situation are but handful of propped up excuse that are being sold to world at large and American public in particular.
A close look at geographic locations of Syria (Mediterranean Sea, Iran (Persian Gulf), Gawadar, Pakistan (Arabian sea) show that it’s all about energy control in Asia having CARS, China , and Russia. It is also true for Morocco that leaving aside the restricted Suez route shares with Spain the only access to Mediterranean Sea having cardinal trade and energy significance. Same is true for Somalia. It is not by chance that Taliban are pouring out from nowhere at this time and suddenly forty Moroccan suicide bombers emerge on the international scene out of nowhere.
In all probability, unstable Afghanistan is also needed to legitimize the long-term NATO presence in the region to secure its members energy interests. And to some extent Kashmir is also linked to energy strategy and its solution will provide wider link to CARS and China and that could undermine strategic significance of long term Afghan occupation.
Under the circumstance at strategic level, Cairo summit offers little chance to stabilize Iraq situation. Similarly, Iran has shown a positive gesture to be part of the process but its significance may be dwarfed in face of larger realities. On the contrary, skeptics opine that Iran should ready itself for extensive blame game in future including strong probability of an attack on its nuclear energy plants. Future may not that gloomy but there is little to discard such extreme skepticism.
The answer to Iraq lies with Malki government and Bush. Withing Iraq Malki should do what needs to be done to improve national reconciliation, pass oil law ensuring just sharing of natural resources across the board, bring on board minorities through across the board debathification and jobs, improve basic services, and eliminate role of local militia and implement of country’s law. Reach out to neighboring states and as part of international process participate in the process to restore peace in the region. In terms of existing election, system Iraq should weigh Gov. Richardson’s plan of 18 constituencies in which performance not the tribal and sectarian affinities automatically elevate the members to the parliament.
Within America Bush as reminded by Speaker Pelosi after he vetoed the Iraq bill needs to respect democratic demand of American public and withdraw US forces from Iraq in national and global security interests. Many agree with Allawi that Sharm El-Sheikh summit seems restricted and “hijacked”. Rice herself is a turnoff. May be it is time Democrats find another Sec. of State who enjoys across the board confidence of international community.
At strategic level energy rich ME has to sell the oil and international community needs to buy oil. It is a simple matter of selling and buying and the world including America in national interest should help to keep it that way. Bush needs to find diplomatic solutions to protect and promote country’s economic and policy interests than resorting to dead end policy of “peace through strength”.
It is time Bush is made to realize that world politics has changed. The future of the globalized and integrated world lies in “collective good” not in the outdated “individual” interests. Therefore, he should review his energy policy to bring an end to death and destruction across the globe. May be China’s successful energy deals could help Bush under importance of diplomacy and dignity of other countries. If only it is realized.
There is a divided opinion over Iran’s decision to attend the summit. It is widely believed that Iran has opted for a flawed strategy that could lead the country into complex political situation with adverse consequences and in all probability Bush regime will now have an excuse to blame Iran for (its) failures in Iraq.
It is a strong view but skeptics believe that likely Iran-US meeting is nothing more than a “photo” opportunity for public consumption in America. It is a situation similar to Bush looking for military Czar to command Iraq and Afghan theatre. The only difference is Iran has walked in but the American (retired) general’s stayed away.
Iran must have considered likely drawbacks but in all probability, its five diplomats held hostage might have brought them to Cairo in addition to political and strategic considerations. However, there is wide scale consensus that dealing with Bush regime that lacks credibility is a greater risk at this stage than ever before and Iran should have stayed out.
It is also opined that Bush administration’s “signaling” of possible diplomatic contact with Iran is a diversion to diffuse domestic pressure in wake of failing troop surge strategy, ISG report and delay likely fall of Malki govt. in wake of reports that Sunni cabinet ministers are likely to resign in coming weeks. Earlier six ministers from Sadar’s party have already resigned. Restricting the meeting just to Iraq has fueled such speculation.
It has been argued that Iran is participating in the summit because for Iran, Iraq, its security and stability are very important. Iranian moderates represented by Larnijani in this meeting are also eager to show the world that they care and want to improve Iran’s image that so far is associated with so called hardliner Ahmadinejad. They would also like to use the opportunity to settle misplaced apprehensions about its peaceful nuclear programme for energy generation to the UNSC members outside UN platform.
Rice however has ruled out any dialogue on Iran’s nuclear programme and in her interview. She while talking to ABC said that Iran’s nuclear issue will only be dealt through EU, platform. She also said that if she will meet Iranian delegation the meeting would only be about Iraq. In that, she told that she would ask Iran to stop alleged of flow of arms and ammunition from their country to Iraq , seek their help to control border crossing by the foreign fighters, stop provision of advance IEDs and support for militia within Iraq. Similarly, there were reports that Iran will be asked to withdraw its alleged support for Hezbollah and Hamas.
Larnjani, has however rejected all these claims as baseless allegations. In wake of any independent verification, this line of dialogue will otherwise lead nowhere. And reports from Washington showing that Bush administration will be “firm but polite” with Iran aren’t steps in right direction if White House is seriously seeking a headway on Iraq through regional cooperation.
Close observers believe that Bush regime is not seeking resolution of Iraq problem in immediate terms and in all probability fate of Iraq war will be decided by the next US president.
It response to question that in addition to recognition of its peaceful nuclear energy programme what could be the other Iranian demands?
An expert from Tehran University while talking to Arab TV Channel said that threats of military actions against Iran should be stopped. Iran should be recognized as a major player in the region. And its humiliation should be stopped. He added that since both countries have a long history of good relationship therefore such policies should be reviewed in the interest of both countries.
Despite assertions that unlike America, Iran by opting to avail the possible opportunity of having a diplomatic contact with America has shown maturity and sincerity to restore peace in the region it is hard to logically support Iran attending the meeting. It is going to lose more and could have serious consequences for the region and global peace:-
The prospects of Iraq solution are brighter in light of UN Resolutions and Saudi King Abdullah’s Arab Peace Plan backed by regional states, Muslims world at large and global community than handful states engaging at individual level in Cairo at this stage to resolve the issue.
Ayad Allawi ex-Iraqi PM has already said that without involving regional states like Egypt, UAE, Saudi Arabia and Jordan the regional and global Iraq issue cannot be solved amicably. He opines that transparency, consultancy and how to proceed on Iraq are important to resolve the Iraq issue. Without a (reliable) guarantor, and national reconciliation there is little hope on Iraq.
There are strong reports that Malki govt. may not last for long. Despite American pressure Malki has so far resisted to change country’s political system that is still sectarian based instead of true democracy based on equal representation. Current electoral system is based on sectarian and tribal affiliations instead of performance based election.
Malki is simply refusing to develop relations with neighboring countries. He is unwilling to reach out to regional states.
Oil draft has not been passed into law. There is no progress on debathification to bring on board disenfranchised minorities into mainstream political system and jobs as part of across the board reconciliation to restore security.
Experts opine that he is using American troops to extend his regime, keep Shia in power and deepen skepticism in new system in otherwise strong minorities by keeping them out of country’s decision-making process and jobs.
Thus in a way he exacerbating current political situation and is equally instrumental in pushing the country towards infighting over struggle for survival, political space and jobs that is now mistaken for a sectarian war. It is dangerous game that in addition to bringing death and destruction but could divide the country in the long run.
Iran as part of regional community has stronger safety against any military misadventure and support for its peaceful nuclear programme. ME has already supported Iran’s peaceful nuclear programme and supports nuclear free ME.
Can Iran help in current Iraq situation? If viewed realistically, at tactical level Iran like any other neighboring country has little power to improve the internal affairs of Iraq. Iran like rest of the world including regional states and Muslim Ummah it can only extend moral and financial support from a distance to stabilize Iraq as and when American forces execute phased withdrawal schedule.
At strategic level Iran has nothing to do with Iraq war which is all about oil. Bush regime knows the plan and without (phased) withdrawal of American troops from Iraq security situation will not change in Iraq. Iran, war on terrorism and Afghan situation are but handful of propped up excuse that are being sold to world at large and American public in particular.
A close look at geographic locations of Syria (Mediterranean Sea, Iran (Persian Gulf), Gawadar, Pakistan (Arabian sea) show that it’s all about energy control in Asia having CARS, China , and Russia. It is also true for Morocco that leaving aside the restricted Suez route shares with Spain the only access to Mediterranean Sea having cardinal trade and energy significance. Same is true for Somalia. It is not by chance that Taliban are pouring out from nowhere at this time and suddenly forty Moroccan suicide bombers emerge on the international scene out of nowhere.
In all probability, unstable Afghanistan is also needed to legitimize the long-term NATO presence in the region to secure its members energy interests. And to some extent Kashmir is also linked to energy strategy and its solution will provide wider link to CARS and China and that could undermine strategic significance of long term Afghan occupation.
Under the circumstance at strategic level, Cairo summit offers little chance to stabilize Iraq situation. Similarly, Iran has shown a positive gesture to be part of the process but its significance may be dwarfed in face of larger realities. On the contrary, skeptics opine that Iran should ready itself for extensive blame game in future including strong probability of an attack on its nuclear energy plants. Future may not that gloomy but there is little to discard such extreme skepticism.
The answer to Iraq lies with Malki government and Bush. Withing Iraq Malki should do what needs to be done to improve national reconciliation, pass oil law ensuring just sharing of natural resources across the board, bring on board minorities through across the board debathification and jobs, improve basic services, and eliminate role of local militia and implement of country’s law. Reach out to neighboring states and as part of international process participate in the process to restore peace in the region. In terms of existing election, system Iraq should weigh Gov. Richardson’s plan of 18 constituencies in which performance not the tribal and sectarian affinities automatically elevate the members to the parliament.
Within America Bush as reminded by Speaker Pelosi after he vetoed the Iraq bill needs to respect democratic demand of American public and withdraw US forces from Iraq in national and global security interests. Many agree with Allawi that Sharm El-Sheikh summit seems restricted and “hijacked”. Rice herself is a turnoff. May be it is time Democrats find another Sec. of State who enjoys across the board confidence of international community.
At strategic level energy rich ME has to sell the oil and international community needs to buy oil. It is a simple matter of selling and buying and the world including America in national interest should help to keep it that way. Bush needs to find diplomatic solutions to protect and promote country’s economic and policy interests than resorting to dead end policy of “peace through strength”.
It is time Bush is made to realize that world politics has changed. The future of the globalized and integrated world lies in “collective good” not in the outdated “individual” interests. Therefore, he should review his energy policy to bring an end to death and destruction across the globe. May be China’s successful energy deals could help Bush under importance of diplomacy and dignity of other countries. If only it is realized.
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