America and Iraq Standoff: Answer lies with Bush
Rizwan Ghani
April 30, 2007
The power to end Iraq standoff with lawmakers rests with Bush. However, it would be interesting to see how they convince him to end Iraq war.
Iraq standoff has three dimensions: Iraq as part of American energy strategy; Region and Iraq, and situation within Iraq. Bush and his allies know the game and they have the answers. Terrorism or other talk of anti-Americanism has little credibility in rest of the world.
Rice had a very interesting comment in her ABC interview in which she defined imminent (Iraq) threat. Going by her definition all Republican’s did was defined Iraq as rogue state and then went after it, at the time of (their) convenience. Reports of imminent threats of WMD had little to do with timings of Iraq war. It shows that it was already planned.
And from this perspective J.J. Kirkpatrick’s book “Making war to Make Peace” has more value to bring an end to Iraq war than what Tenet is bringing to American politics that is all about bickering, fear mongering and finger pointing.
To understand Iraq as part of American strategy look at the globe, and from Somalia start moving up towards Djibouti, Ethiopia, Eretria, Sudan and then Egypt. These countries open up on Red Sea. Most of these countries are facing “forced political turmoil. Somalia is the latest addition to the list. Egypt by virtue of its size and pro-US Cairo policies is not under western spot light. Despite Darfur Sudan’s size and its geo-political links have made it a different ballgame for the time being.
As one reaches close to Iraq, it doesn’t take a wizard to understand why Syria is most dangerous country (axis of evil). Its borders with Jordan, Israel and Turkey and its size and stability are planners’ nightmare. Its potential to blocks access to Europe and Iraq coupled with unfriendly regime is the core problem for strategic planning focusing on ME oil as part of energy corridor, and emerging geo-political posturing for economic and political leveraging in Asia.
In wake of latest ME look east policy, Russia-China and Russia-Europe energy developments followed by possible strengthening of EU as promised by Royal, long-term occupation of Iraq has gained indisputable significance.
Bush and his team cannot say all this openly but their statements show that planned indefinite occupation of Iraq will continue. Huge Iraq American embassy in the region is part of the plan. It also explains why liberal Democrats use the words “withdrawal” and pro-right use the word “redeployment”.
It also puts concept of axis of evil in perspective. Come down from Iraq to neighboring Iran with Caspian Sea on its north it provides critical links with CARS. Iran on its west commands critical oil supply to the west passing through Persian Gulf and down south it aligns with Gawadar, Pakistan. That in turn has occupied Afghanistan on its west. Turbulent Afghanistan (Taliban as part of strategic objective are the propped-up ghosts meant to legitimize Afghan occupation by NATO[to protect energy interest of its member states] for decades to come. Gates statement to the effect is on record in which he said there is no withdrawal from Afghanistan in near future means no access to Arabian Sea by neighboring China and even CARS.
It also explains reluctance on part of west to play their role in helping to solve the dispute between Pakistan and India over Indian held Kashmir and their interest in Tajikistan. A solution of Kashmir dispute could mean prosperity for the region but will also undermine significance of Afghanistan and west’s energy strategy.
Recent Pak-China understanding has cut Chinese energy transit by 12000 miles and reduced transportation cost by one fourth. It shows the practical significance its strategic importance. This is one reason despite concerns of nuclear proliferation Bush as part of strategic plan pushed for the US-India nuclear deal.
Like Islamic Court govt. of Somalia, now Morrocco is under spotlight for some “suicidal fanatics”. A closer at the map would show that like Spain, Morocco sits on the entrance of Strait of Gibraltar, after Suez the only passage to Mediterranean Sea allowing Europe to link with outside world. It is not a chance that all unrest erupts from countries of strategic importance.
It also explains Bush’s support for individual leaders in Egypt, Jordan, Afghanistan and Pakistan even at the cost of democracy and infrastructure development. That in turn fuels corruption, poverty and radicalism. It also explains dislike for Syrian and Iranian leaderships. Moreover, concerns over Iran’s 1300 pilot centrifuge nuclear programme. That in fact is a distraction for rest of the world from ongoing strategic gaming in the region.
It has reportedly resulted; in death of one million Iraqis, four million refugees and two million internal migrants. Afghanistan and for that matter northern Pakistan has suffered but has been unreported. Similarly, over a million Iranians died during Iran-Iraq war followed by UN sanctions against Iran as part of US ME energy strategy.
ME as Region has called for resolution of Palestine issue line with UN Resolutions and Saudi King Abdullah’s Arab Plan seeking two-state solution. ME is willing to extend moral and material support as and when US helps resolve Palestine issue and announce Iraq withdrawal schedule.
Reports about Olmert’s Iran attack plan are part of two-pronged strategy: increase pressure within Iran for regime change and “drag” Iran into Iraqi politics. Republicans will ultimately use Iran for the blame game. Iranian diplomat hostages are part of the strategy to bring Iran onboard. Since, Iran has agreed to attend the Egypt conference it is likely to be counterproductive for Iran and American public, ultimately.
Rice has already said Iran’s nuclear issue will only be dealt through EU, platform. She said that if she will meet Iranian delegation it would be only be about Iraq. She will seek alleged stoppage of flow of arms and ammunition, control border crossing by the foreign fighters, stop provision of advance IEDs and support for militia within Iraq.
In terms of Iraq Bush has refused to accept any Congressional binding on US troop withdrawal schedule. And whatever expectations there are on that Malki govt will fulfill benchmarks should be forgotten because Rice in her ABC interview has explained Malki is a weak PM who is in the office as a compromise candidate.
Malki despite US efforts has so far failed to pass oil resolution into a law. There is no progress on debathification and bringing on board Shias, Sunnis and Kurds. Republicans are talking of three state Iraq federation based on natural resources while Democrats in step with regional and international views are looking at Richardson’s 18 state united Iraq solution. There is little development on restoration of basic services in Iraq. Latest reports have shown that eight projects out of nine to rebuild Iraq have failed.
Reports of Malki’s refusal to respect benchmarks may be part of Republican plan as Rice alluded and Chalbi said things may never change in terms of accountability and benchmarks.
In all probability, bringing an end to Iraq and even Afghan war may not be desirable from Baghdad, Washington and Kabul’s perspective.
The worst security situation in Iraq explains Petraus’ troop surge strategy. His statement that in September Iraq situation will be reviewed shows that Bush is not going to withdraw troops from Iraq. And by using military to defy lawmakers and public’s pressure Bush is undermining political authority that is supposed to take decisions on national policies including war.
Sen. Martha’s statement to impeach Bush as one of the four options with Congress is just a pressure tactic because Democrats will not like to have Cheney as the president.
This leaves them to look for a bipartisan support, may be by September ‘07 desperate Republicans would join Democrats to end Iraq war to save their individual political careers. However, before that Democrats need to unite as one party if they want to see Bush listen to their call for Iraq withdrawal. Bush is reportedly going to meet the lawmakers again after vetoing current Iraq bill.
Democrats need to make Bush realize that ME has to sell oil and world economy needs oil. Therefore, there is a collective interest in supporting “mutual (economic and energy) interests”. And everyone can be on board sooner than later.
China has secured its energy needs in last two years diplomatically. Bush may like to review his energy strategy based on “peace through strength” policy and order phased withdrawal of forces from Iraq in response to bills backed by the public demand in global interest.
In addition to improving fossil fuel output in Nigeria, off shore drilling there is lot of scope in alternative energy generation including nuclear. It is time to harness the same for multiple advantages including energy independence and greener world.
The energy war has deeply affected developing world in terms of growing radicalism, terrorism and suicide attacks. There is suppression of individual liberties and human rights. Poverty is spreading like a pandemic in developing states due to poor security and non-existent peace. It needs to end now before it is too late. Iraq war has its role in fueling discontentment across the globe. It is therefore time to Iraq war. The power to end Iraq standoff with lawmakers rests with Bush. However, it would be interesting to see how they convince him to end Iraq war.
Iraq standoff has three dimensions: Iraq as part of American energy strategy; Region and Iraq, and situation within Iraq. Bush and his allies know the game and they have the answers. Terrorism or other talk of anti-Americanism has little credibility in rest of the world.
Rice had a very interesting comment in her ABC interview in which she defined imminent (Iraq) threat. Going by her definition all Republican’s did was defined Iraq as rogue state and then went after it, at the time of (their) convenience. Reports of imminent threats of WMD had little to do with timings of Iraq war. It shows that it was already planned.
And from this perspective J.J. Kirkpatrick’s book “Making war to Make Peace” has more value to bring an end to Iraq war than what Tenet is bringing to American politics that is all about bickering, fear mongering and finger pointing.
To understand Iraq as part of American strategy look at the globe, and from Somalia start moving up towards Djibouti, Ethiopia, Eretria, Sudan and then Egypt. These countries open up on Red Sea. Most of these countries are facing “forced political turmoil. Somalia is the latest addition to the list. Egypt by virtue of its size and pro-US Cairo policies is not under western spot light. Despite Darfur Sudan’s size and its geo-political links have made it a different ballgame for the time being.
As one reaches close to Iraq, it doesn’t take a wizard to understand why Syria is most dangerous country (axis of evil). Its borders with Jordan, Israel and Turkey and its size and stability are planners’ nightmare. Its potential to blocks access to Europe and Iraq coupled with unfriendly regime is the core problem for strategic planning focusing on ME oil as part of energy corridor, and emerging geo-political posturing for economic and political leveraging in Asia.
In wake of latest ME look east policy, Russia-China and Russia-Europe energy developments followed by possible strengthening of EU as promised by Royal, long-term occupation of Iraq has gained indisputable significance.
Bush and his team cannot say all this openly but their statements show that planned indefinite occupation of Iraq will continue. Huge Iraq American embassy in the region is part of the plan. It also explains why liberal Democrats use the words “withdrawal” and pro-right use the word “redeployment”.
It also puts concept of axis of evil in perspective. Come down from Iraq to neighboring Iran with Caspian Sea on its north it provides critical links with CARS. Iran on its west commands critical oil supply to the west passing through Persian Gulf and down south it aligns with Gawadar, Pakistan. That in turn has occupied Afghanistan on its west. Turbulent Afghanistan (Taliban as part of strategic objective are the propped-up ghosts meant to legitimize Afghan occupation by NATO[to protect energy interest of its member states] for decades to come. Gates statement to the effect is on record in which he said there is no withdrawal from Afghanistan in near future means no access to Arabian Sea by neighboring China and even CARS.
It also explains reluctance on part of west to play their role in helping to solve the dispute between Pakistan and India over Indian held Kashmir and their interest in Tajikistan. A solution of Kashmir dispute could mean prosperity for the region but will also undermine significance of Afghanistan and west’s energy strategy.
Recent Pak-China understanding has cut Chinese energy transit by 12000 miles and reduced transportation cost by one fourth. It shows the practical significance its strategic importance. This is one reason despite concerns of nuclear proliferation Bush as part of strategic plan pushed for the US-India nuclear deal.
Like Islamic Court govt. of Somalia, now Morrocco is under spotlight for some “suicidal fanatics”. A closer at the map would show that like Spain, Morocco sits on the entrance of Strait of Gibraltar, after Suez the only passage to Mediterranean Sea allowing Europe to link with outside world. It is not a chance that all unrest erupts from countries of strategic importance.
It also explains Bush’s support for individual leaders in Egypt, Jordan, Afghanistan and Pakistan even at the cost of democracy and infrastructure development. That in turn fuels corruption, poverty and radicalism. It also explains dislike for Syrian and Iranian leaderships. Moreover, concerns over Iran’s 1300 pilot centrifuge nuclear programme. That in fact is a distraction for rest of the world from ongoing strategic gaming in the region.
It has reportedly resulted; in death of one million Iraqis, four million refugees and two million internal migrants. Afghanistan and for that matter northern Pakistan has suffered but has been unreported. Similarly, over a million Iranians died during Iran-Iraq war followed by UN sanctions against Iran as part of US ME energy strategy.
ME as Region has called for resolution of Palestine issue line with UN Resolutions and Saudi King Abdullah’s Arab Plan seeking two-state solution. ME is willing to extend moral and material support as and when US helps resolve Palestine issue and announce Iraq withdrawal schedule.
Reports about Olmert’s Iran attack plan are part of two-pronged strategy: increase pressure within Iran for regime change and “drag” Iran into Iraqi politics. Republicans will ultimately use Iran for the blame game. Iranian diplomat hostages are part of the strategy to bring Iran onboard. Since, Iran has agreed to attend the Egypt conference it is likely to be counterproductive for Iran and American public, ultimately.
Rice has already said Iran’s nuclear issue will only be dealt through EU, platform. She said that if she will meet Iranian delegation it would be only be about Iraq. She will seek alleged stoppage of flow of arms and ammunition, control border crossing by the foreign fighters, stop provision of advance IEDs and support for militia within Iraq.
In terms of Iraq Bush has refused to accept any Congressional binding on US troop withdrawal schedule. And whatever expectations there are on that Malki govt will fulfill benchmarks should be forgotten because Rice in her ABC interview has explained Malki is a weak PM who is in the office as a compromise candidate.
Malki despite US efforts has so far failed to pass oil resolution into a law. There is no progress on debathification and bringing on board Shias, Sunnis and Kurds. Republicans are talking of three state Iraq federation based on natural resources while Democrats in step with regional and international views are looking at Richardson’s 18 state united Iraq solution. There is little development on restoration of basic services in Iraq. Latest reports have shown that eight projects out of nine to rebuild Iraq have failed.
Reports of Malki’s refusal to respect benchmarks may be part of Republican plan as Rice alluded and Chalbi said things may never change in terms of accountability and benchmarks.
In all probability, bringing an end to Iraq and even Afghan war may not be desirable from Baghdad, Washington and Kabul’s perspective.
The worst security situation in Iraq explains Petraus’ troop surge strategy. His statement that in September Iraq situation will be reviewed shows that Bush is not going to withdraw troops from Iraq. And by using military to defy lawmakers and public’s pressure Bush is undermining political authority that is supposed to take decisions on national policies including war.
Sen. Martha’s statement to impeach Bush as one of the four options with Congress is just a pressure tactic because Democrats will not like to have Cheney as the president.
This leaves them to look for a bipartisan support, may be by September ‘07 desperate Republicans would join Democrats to end Iraq war to save their individual political careers. However, before that Democrats need to unite as one party if they want to see Bush listen to their call for Iraq withdrawal. Bush is reportedly going to meet the lawmakers again after vetoing current Iraq bill.
Democrats need to make Bush realize that ME has to sell oil and world economy needs oil. Therefore, there is a collective interest in supporting “mutual (economic and energy) interests”. And everyone can be on board sooner than later.
China has secured its energy needs in last two years diplomatically. Bush may like to review his energy strategy based on “peace through strength” policy and order phased withdrawal of forces from Iraq in response to bills backed by the public demand in global interest.
In addition to improving fossil fuel output in Nigeria, off shore drilling there is lot of scope in alternative energy generation including nuclear. It is time to harness the same for multiple advantages including energy independence and greener world.
The energy war has deeply affected developing world in terms of growing radicalism, terrorism and suicide attacks. There is suppression of individual liberties and human rights. Poverty is spreading like a pandemic in developing states due to poor security and non-existent peace. It needs to end now before it is too late. Iraq war has its role in fueling discontentment across the globe. It is therefore time to Iraq war. The power to end Iraq standoff with lawmakers rests with Bush. However, it would be interesting to see how they convince him to end Iraq war.
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