President Royal Controls Both Worlds Can Bayrou Measure up
Rizwan Ghani
April 26, 2007
Royal is all set to be the next president of France and it is only a matter of time that Bayrou will be part of her coalition government. What Bayrou is doing is part of political posturing that adds to the suspense. And without posturing politics wouldn’t be half the fun that it is now
In addition to Britain, Germany and America all those who had expected Sarkozy to be the next French President are disappointed to see Royal heading to make history as the first President of France. Going by the current polls in America it is something that even Hillary Clinton may not be able do for the American’s in ‘08 Presidential elections.
There is a perception that in race for center votes will determine Royal’s fate. And there are few who believe that Sarkozy could still pull a surprise and be the next president.
To begin with French left right and center has spoken and with 85 percent voter turnout it couldn’t have been more louder and resounding.
Sarkozy’s two stage strategy to coo the right in knock out phase followed by capturing the center for final presidential round has failed. Whatever Bayrou has is what Sarkozy lost.
Here is the anatomy of his fall. Sarkozy wanted to turn around France by reviewing its social system, revise 35-hour workweek, open up with West. He also talked of renewed “revival” of relations with America for collective good and changes in immigration laws with additional fine tuning or as widely viewed as “restrictions”.
These average polices inherently have few flaws.
But Royal by offering plans that support French way of life and temperament has simply robbed the opposition of any chance of eroding her vote bank.
As mentioned earlier Bayrou has won Sarkozy’s votes. Had Sarkozy not stolen Le Pen’s five percent by including plans of immigration ministry in his party manifesto he would have trailed Royal in knock out round.
Therefore whatever new promises Sarkozy will offer to France he cannot win the hearts of France that stands for democracy and change and voted for Bayrou. In all probability, Sarkozy will have to make do with the Le Pen’s leftover vote ban of eleven percent vote bank.
If Sarkozy is listening he should not appear like a man who is in hurry to be the president of France. In his efforts to win the hearts of Bayrou’s voters he has shifted positions on his manifesto and that could infact harm him because his voters are getting confused message and could ditch him in the final round. They voted for Sarkozy who wanted to “shake” France out of “sleep walking” to compete with rest of the world, not a Sarkozy who is visibly kneeling on his knees and begging for votes.
Sarkozy had appealed to the rich and the old come what may middle class and poor will not brace him. His temper is not a help either. Farmers will not stand for him because he didn’t promise change for good in their decades old fate. Their wages and profits will not double because Sarkozy is the rich farmland owners’ man. At least this fact is not lost to them.
Sarkozy has been ignoring real issues besetting minorities in France for the fear of losing support from old French population and the rich business community. He had and still has no concrete plan to offer them jobs, schools, improve their ghettos.
Similarly, his victory speech after knockout round looked like a prelude to Presidential speech in which his talk of “embracing” and “protecting” sounded more like a list minute change of heart lacking depth and political motives. Minorities are very well aware that Sarkozy’s UMP has no vision about their future including role in mainstream France.
On the contrary, his association with Chirac, pro-hard security clamp down during last year’s French minority riots is going to deprive him of the much needed critical votes in a closely contested election. It will ultimately translate in his defeat. Reportedly, minorities calls for change in their poor economic conditions, lack of equal job opportunity and absorption in main France were ignored in Paris.
Thus, the past has now started to haunt Sarkozy. Reportedly, seventy percent of the minorities has pledged to vote for Royal. It is a big number. Leaving aside one percent Jews, there are eleven percent non-religious minorities and five percent Muslims in France. After Paris, Marseille is the second largest city with a population of 8,00,000 people.
Therefore, Sarkozy has little to play with and there is little headway he can make in terms of attracting more voters for the upcoming final round of presidential race. By and large the votes pattern will remain the same. France is heading for a coalition government.
A growing number of experts now believe that Royal will edge past Sarkozy by one percent. Few however believe that Sarkozy will lead the votes.
As mentioned in my article Royal Poised to Make History as next President of France http://www.americanchronicle.com/articles/viewArticle.asp?articleID=24989 in the same space Royal is heading for victory and if she maintains her policy her (intact) vote bank will help her form coalition govt. with Bayrou (UDF). Other two small parties have already pledged to support her to form the government.
This brings Bayrou and his latest positioning to forefront. Reportedly, two weeks prior to knock out round to the presidential elections he said it on record that he will not support Sarkozy if UMP won the election.
Still it would be interesting to analyze his latest stance in which he has refused to stand with UMP or PS. Is there some logic in what he said or it is part of political posturing for bargain.
Ideally Bayrou would like to do what he claims. A balanced center-party that will monitor and act as watchdog while French government delivers on its promises. But Bayrou’s latest posturing has inherent flaw. It can be a Queen maker or breaker but cannot occupy the throne.
Royal would not like to make him a prime minister. He would not like to be a minister. And yet he is not in politics to stay out and watch others bask in limelight or serve the nation.
So Bayrou will have to take a stand sooner than latter if he really want to help France have a stable government that rests on coalition of few than a setup resembling vegetable market.
And if this assertion sounds practical then it is time he supports Royal openly as he did during pre-election days to help voters make up their mind.
Bayrou is what Sarkozy is not right. He is moderate not a rightist. Baryou may argue that UDF is all what Royal’s PS. But then as said earlier he is not what UMP therefore logic determines a natural alliance between PS and UDF. It is therefore time for Bayrou to measure up to the challenge that right poses to moderate and socialist France.
Bayrou can charge Royal and her party of “slumbering” into future but he cannot fault them for moving in opposite direction. UDF may be the future’s France in present and Royal’s PS may be France’s past in present but then there is a common ground that can provide the base to move towards common goals.
Bayrou should not miss the bigger picture.
Bayrou must not forget that unlike Royal’s visionary foreign policy Sarkozy has no foreign policy. His France is inward looking supporting relations with America and handful of European states.
But majority of European Union states like the rest of the world are readying to embrace the peaceful world in which international organizations will have stronger role. There is talk of reinvigorating diplomacy instead of resorting to use of power. Royal in her speech stressed to respect human rights and constitutional rights that is a message to outside world that France supports modernity not dark ages. It respects civilizations and their right to exist. It supports dialogue.
As custodian of democracy in France it is the closest that Bayrou could get to strengthen will of people before he himself heads a party that can form a government.
Finally, Royal is all set to be the next president of France and it is only a matter of time that Bayrou will be part of her coalition government. What Bayrou is doing is part of political posturing that adds to the suspense. And without posturing politics wouldn’t be half the fun that it is now. So let us watch there is still lot of fun out there. People are talking of two set of values. There is this talk of right and left. Moreover, Royal is charting waters that once were exclusively a man’s domain.
For a start, losers are still part of the political process. Isn’t that unique, fascinating and educating?
In addition to Britain, Germany and America all those who had expected Sarkozy to be the next French President are disappointed to see Royal heading to make history as the first President of France. Going by the current polls in America it is something that even Hillary Clinton may not be able do for the American’s in ‘08 Presidential elections.
There is a perception that in race for center votes will determine Royal’s fate. And there are few who believe that Sarkozy could still pull a surprise and be the next president.
To begin with French left right and center has spoken and with 85 percent voter turnout it couldn’t have been more louder and resounding.
Sarkozy’s two stage strategy to coo the right in knock out phase followed by capturing the center for final presidential round has failed. Whatever Bayrou has is what Sarkozy lost.
Here is the anatomy of his fall. Sarkozy wanted to turn around France by reviewing its social system, revise 35-hour workweek, open up with West. He also talked of renewed “revival” of relations with America for collective good and changes in immigration laws with additional fine tuning or as widely viewed as “restrictions”.
These average polices inherently have few flaws.
But Royal by offering plans that support French way of life and temperament has simply robbed the opposition of any chance of eroding her vote bank.
As mentioned earlier Bayrou has won Sarkozy’s votes. Had Sarkozy not stolen Le Pen’s five percent by including plans of immigration ministry in his party manifesto he would have trailed Royal in knock out round.
Therefore whatever new promises Sarkozy will offer to France he cannot win the hearts of France that stands for democracy and change and voted for Bayrou. In all probability, Sarkozy will have to make do with the Le Pen’s leftover vote ban of eleven percent vote bank.
If Sarkozy is listening he should not appear like a man who is in hurry to be the president of France. In his efforts to win the hearts of Bayrou’s voters he has shifted positions on his manifesto and that could infact harm him because his voters are getting confused message and could ditch him in the final round. They voted for Sarkozy who wanted to “shake” France out of “sleep walking” to compete with rest of the world, not a Sarkozy who is visibly kneeling on his knees and begging for votes.
Sarkozy had appealed to the rich and the old come what may middle class and poor will not brace him. His temper is not a help either. Farmers will not stand for him because he didn’t promise change for good in their decades old fate. Their wages and profits will not double because Sarkozy is the rich farmland owners’ man. At least this fact is not lost to them.
Sarkozy has been ignoring real issues besetting minorities in France for the fear of losing support from old French population and the rich business community. He had and still has no concrete plan to offer them jobs, schools, improve their ghettos.
Similarly, his victory speech after knockout round looked like a prelude to Presidential speech in which his talk of “embracing” and “protecting” sounded more like a list minute change of heart lacking depth and political motives. Minorities are very well aware that Sarkozy’s UMP has no vision about their future including role in mainstream France.
On the contrary, his association with Chirac, pro-hard security clamp down during last year’s French minority riots is going to deprive him of the much needed critical votes in a closely contested election. It will ultimately translate in his defeat. Reportedly, minorities calls for change in their poor economic conditions, lack of equal job opportunity and absorption in main France were ignored in Paris.
Thus, the past has now started to haunt Sarkozy. Reportedly, seventy percent of the minorities has pledged to vote for Royal. It is a big number. Leaving aside one percent Jews, there are eleven percent non-religious minorities and five percent Muslims in France. After Paris, Marseille is the second largest city with a population of 8,00,000 people.
Therefore, Sarkozy has little to play with and there is little headway he can make in terms of attracting more voters for the upcoming final round of presidential race. By and large the votes pattern will remain the same. France is heading for a coalition government.
A growing number of experts now believe that Royal will edge past Sarkozy by one percent. Few however believe that Sarkozy will lead the votes.
As mentioned in my article Royal Poised to Make History as next President of France http://www.americanchronicle.com/articles/viewArticle.asp?articleID=24989 in the same space Royal is heading for victory and if she maintains her policy her (intact) vote bank will help her form coalition govt. with Bayrou (UDF). Other two small parties have already pledged to support her to form the government.
This brings Bayrou and his latest positioning to forefront. Reportedly, two weeks prior to knock out round to the presidential elections he said it on record that he will not support Sarkozy if UMP won the election.
Still it would be interesting to analyze his latest stance in which he has refused to stand with UMP or PS. Is there some logic in what he said or it is part of political posturing for bargain.
Ideally Bayrou would like to do what he claims. A balanced center-party that will monitor and act as watchdog while French government delivers on its promises. But Bayrou’s latest posturing has inherent flaw. It can be a Queen maker or breaker but cannot occupy the throne.
Royal would not like to make him a prime minister. He would not like to be a minister. And yet he is not in politics to stay out and watch others bask in limelight or serve the nation.
So Bayrou will have to take a stand sooner than latter if he really want to help France have a stable government that rests on coalition of few than a setup resembling vegetable market.
And if this assertion sounds practical then it is time he supports Royal openly as he did during pre-election days to help voters make up their mind.
Bayrou is what Sarkozy is not right. He is moderate not a rightist. Baryou may argue that UDF is all what Royal’s PS. But then as said earlier he is not what UMP therefore logic determines a natural alliance between PS and UDF. It is therefore time for Bayrou to measure up to the challenge that right poses to moderate and socialist France.
Bayrou can charge Royal and her party of “slumbering” into future but he cannot fault them for moving in opposite direction. UDF may be the future’s France in present and Royal’s PS may be France’s past in present but then there is a common ground that can provide the base to move towards common goals.
Bayrou should not miss the bigger picture.
Bayrou must not forget that unlike Royal’s visionary foreign policy Sarkozy has no foreign policy. His France is inward looking supporting relations with America and handful of European states.
But majority of European Union states like the rest of the world are readying to embrace the peaceful world in which international organizations will have stronger role. There is talk of reinvigorating diplomacy instead of resorting to use of power. Royal in her speech stressed to respect human rights and constitutional rights that is a message to outside world that France supports modernity not dark ages. It respects civilizations and their right to exist. It supports dialogue.
As custodian of democracy in France it is the closest that Bayrou could get to strengthen will of people before he himself heads a party that can form a government.
Finally, Royal is all set to be the next president of France and it is only a matter of time that Bayrou will be part of her coalition government. What Bayrou is doing is part of political posturing that adds to the suspense. And without posturing politics wouldn’t be half the fun that it is now. So let us watch there is still lot of fun out there. People are talking of two set of values. There is this talk of right and left. Moreover, Royal is charting waters that once were exclusively a man’s domain.
For a start, losers are still part of the political process. Isn’t that unique, fascinating and educating?
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