The Arab Spring and the Iranian Autumn
Ahmed Hany
September 06, 2011
After the fall of the Libyan regime everybody in the Middle East is watching Damascus closely. Both Israel and Iran do not want to see the fall of Baath regime. In fact this regime served these two countries more than it did to its people if it ever did. For thirty years it did not shoot a bullet to free Golan Heights nor did it press hard to reach permanent peace. As other Arab dictators both Asads senior and junior used the Palestine problem to build autocratic dictatorship that did not even respect the country´s constitution when time of inheriting the authority came. The international criminal court accuses four of Hezbo-Allah party of assassinating late Lebanese premier Hariri and further investigations may drag the Syrian regime that was the then protector of Lebanon and the ally of Hezbo-Allah. The string of alliance may reach Tehran that will lose much if its poodle regime in Damascus fell.
For Israel the problem will be political as most probably the new Syrian regime will seek political resolution for Golan problem and will not support Hezbo-Allah anymore. However the some tough decisions may be taken as the new regime may not succumb to pressure like Asad and it will need popular support that will be reflected in the negotiations.
Iran will lose much. It will lose Syria, the Syrian support to Hezbo-Allah, the safe road to supply weapons to the Lebanese Shiite minority, its influence in Lebanon, its cards in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and Hamas faction. If the Syrian regime fell Hamas would directly shift alliance to Egypt and Jordan to reach a deal that keep some of its influence at least in Gaza.
The Iranian response to such a blow opens all scenarios. It is unlikely that Tehran will succumb to the destruction of its Syria-Hezbo-Allah-Hamas axis that will block one of its maneuvers to heat up fronts on the Israeli borders and to employ these maneuvers to serve its conflict with the West and its nuclear file in particular. Still the official Iranian media talks about uprising in Bahrain and it started to talk about gathering of Shiites in the Western parts of Saudi Arabia to celebrate the Jerusalem day.
In other words Iran will be forced to interfere in the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council to induce instability in the Western allies and to threat oil supplies. Another possible movement that Iran may think seriously about it is that reviving relations with Al-Qaeda in the Western parts of Afghanistan to induce more trouble for NATO. Southern Iraq will be the front that Iran may destroy American plans to withdraw and even it may press to divide Iraq as revenge against the Arab system that its revolutions may dissolve its alliance and cut the Iranian arm that extended to the Mediterranean.
Most probably the next autumn will witness the start of these changes with the ascending pressure from the West on the Syrian butcher to step down. Until now the Western capitals did not declare plans to interfere in Syria but Paris said frankly that if the Security Council approved interference in Syria there would be a new totally different situation. Even Russia is hesitant about the support of Damascus and Tehran and it does not like to see Tehran strong enough to confront the West. It was declared that Tehran will go to the International Count to file a suit against Moscow as the later violated the contract and it did not give the former the anti-plane missiles S-300.
The problem is that despite many are revolutionary they will be forced to take a double standard policies that reflect the economical interests more than the legitimate human rights and democratic changes in the Gulf. At the same time instability in the Gulf will force many to flee with their money to safer places. If Egypt could pass the transitional phase safely many wealthy investors will come from Gulf States to Cairo by the next winter.
For Israel the problem will be political as most probably the new Syrian regime will seek political resolution for Golan problem and will not support Hezbo-Allah anymore. However the some tough decisions may be taken as the new regime may not succumb to pressure like Asad and it will need popular support that will be reflected in the negotiations.
Iran will lose much. It will lose Syria, the Syrian support to Hezbo-Allah, the safe road to supply weapons to the Lebanese Shiite minority, its influence in Lebanon, its cards in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and Hamas faction. If the Syrian regime fell Hamas would directly shift alliance to Egypt and Jordan to reach a deal that keep some of its influence at least in Gaza.
The Iranian response to such a blow opens all scenarios. It is unlikely that Tehran will succumb to the destruction of its Syria-Hezbo-Allah-Hamas axis that will block one of its maneuvers to heat up fronts on the Israeli borders and to employ these maneuvers to serve its conflict with the West and its nuclear file in particular. Still the official Iranian media talks about uprising in Bahrain and it started to talk about gathering of Shiites in the Western parts of Saudi Arabia to celebrate the Jerusalem day.
In other words Iran will be forced to interfere in the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council to induce instability in the Western allies and to threat oil supplies. Another possible movement that Iran may think seriously about it is that reviving relations with Al-Qaeda in the Western parts of Afghanistan to induce more trouble for NATO. Southern Iraq will be the front that Iran may destroy American plans to withdraw and even it may press to divide Iraq as revenge against the Arab system that its revolutions may dissolve its alliance and cut the Iranian arm that extended to the Mediterranean.
Most probably the next autumn will witness the start of these changes with the ascending pressure from the West on the Syrian butcher to step down. Until now the Western capitals did not declare plans to interfere in Syria but Paris said frankly that if the Security Council approved interference in Syria there would be a new totally different situation. Even Russia is hesitant about the support of Damascus and Tehran and it does not like to see Tehran strong enough to confront the West. It was declared that Tehran will go to the International Count to file a suit against Moscow as the later violated the contract and it did not give the former the anti-plane missiles S-300.
The problem is that despite many are revolutionary they will be forced to take a double standard policies that reflect the economical interests more than the legitimate human rights and democratic changes in the Gulf. At the same time instability in the Gulf will force many to flee with their money to safer places. If Egypt could pass the transitional phase safely many wealthy investors will come from Gulf States to Cairo by the next winter.
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